Re: Why you trade for Cliff Lee
posted at 6/4/2013 6:12 PM EDT
In response to craze4sox's comment:
In response to softlaw2's comment:
Send them Ellsbury and Dumpster, and let them pick either Webster or De La Rosa (Add Owens if needed to top other offers) as the price for assuming the remaining debt on Lee, which is about 75 million dollars.
Ellsbury would be a major immediate upgrade over Revere, who is young and would give the Phillies the option of buying Ellsbury's FA years or going back to Revere, next year.
Dumpster would be a shorter termer (1.5 and only 20M left due) who would give them an NL #3 starter and an obvious big drop from Lee but it hasn't worked and the Phillies need everyday offense improvement more than the net difference they will be losing from Lee to Dumpster on the starting pitching front.
Ellsbury 6M left and Dumpster 7M left for 2013 = 13M
Lee = 13M left for 2013
Phillies can wipe Ellsbury off the books, if they want to, for 2014, or retain him and pay FA market if they like how they and the team do going forward. Dumpster is only 13.25M and one season and he would go off their books about 50 million dollars less than Lee.
Phillies also get Webster or De La Rosa (And Owens if required to top the trade makret for Lee) as prospect compensation for Lee's departure.
This trade would make both teams better because of NL v. AL factor and team weaknesses.
Red Sox would then need to get as much of S. Drew's and Dumpster's contracts off the books, as possible, which would likely be all of it because there will be a team who needs a middle infielder because of injury and the remaining costs of about 5M means that even small market teams looking like solid year long contenders will be in the trade market.
Dumpster's 7M due for this year and 13.25M due for next year should not be hard to move off the books to an NL team because he has an AL 4.45 ERA and his contract is short.
For the Red Sox:
2013 Ellsbury's pro-rated 9M off the books
2013 Get S. Drew's pro-rated 9.5M off the books
2013 Get Dumpster's pro-rated 13.25M off the books
2013 Add Lee's 25M pro-rated on the books
Get 31.75M pro-rated off the books and add Lee and the difference is a net 2013 pro-rated reduction of 6.75M. The Red Sox could then use this amount to send with Dumpster and/or S. Drew to get them off the books.
While the Phillies may want to continue on with Lee, I believe this deal makes them better and is a good deal for both teams.
If they will make that deal, the Red Sox management should do it because Lee has shown no signs of serious decline and would be a major role player for at least 2.5 years of the 25M base portion of his contract.
My reasoning is this, having Lee or Braun on the club improves our team in a huge way compared to players presently in these roles. If we can dump more bad salary in the process even better.
Victorino, Braun, Bradley and Nava? would allow us to trade Ells and dump Gomes without missing a beat.
Lee, Lester and Clay? Hands down better than Demp, Lackey, Doub or Morales
Some fans don't realize, there is always room for improvement without waiting for a few possible prospects to develop, or not. It could make our team a real threat sooner rather than later without hurting us financially or depleting the farm all that much.
Having Verlander and Miguel Cabrera would help too. There's only one obstacle; getting the GMs to agree to it, contracts notwithstanding.