Will Ellsbury Stay?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Will Ellsbury Stay?

    After listening to Ellsbury's post game interview today, I got the impression that he may contemplate staying in Boston.

    This is completely contrary to what I have previously thought. 

    I'm not saying this would be a good thing for the team, but with his season not going as spectacular as anticipated(albeit today's game), I wonder if he is having second thoughts about worth, appreciation, and money.  Maybe he doesn't want to gamble with the free-agent market.  Maybe he's hoping for a decent Sox offer.  He knows most Boston fans think he walks on water.  Why chance it all?

    Did anyone come away with that feeling after hearing the interiew?  And, don't forget that he really doesn't like to intrview.

    Food for thought?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from PaulLaCourse. Show PaulLaCourse's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    After listening to Ellsbury's post game interview today, I got the impression that he may contemplate staying in Boston.

    This is completely contrary to what I have previously thought. 

    I'm not saying this would be a good thing for the team, but with his season not going as spectacular as anticipated(albeit today's game), I wonder if he is having second thoughts about worth, appreciation, and money.  Maybe he doesn't want to gamble with the free-agent market.  Maybe he's hoping for a decent Sox offer.  He knows most Boston fans think he walks on water.  Why chance it all?

    Did anyone come away with that feeling after hearing the interiew?  And, don't forget that he really doesn't like to intrview.

    Food for thought?




    After something great happens; i.e., a come from behind win, everyone loves each other and emotions run high. After a day or two when everyone comes back down to earth the same old feelings creep back in. I don't see Ellsbury staying with the Sox. At the end of the day it is still about the money.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    If I had to give it a number, I would say only a 15% chance of staying.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I agree with both the posts, yet after today's interview I don't feel as certain a I once did.

    Personally, I hope he leaves and Bradley takes over.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Especially with Bradley in the wings, Ellsbury is a goner.  I hope he has a good last season with us.  Nice to see him get the big hit today. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    The Sox are in the drivers seat on Ellsbury,thanks in part to his own failures. Trying to be something he's not, A home run hitter! He has gone away from wht brung him, going to the opposite field. Today's game winner was on a pitch clearly away and he went with the pitch instead of trying to hit the pitch out of the park! Result winner,winner chicken dinner!!!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    It is difficult to try and read between the lines.  From what I can tell , Ellsbury likes playing in Boston. The question is ; will the Sox be willing to pay big bucks, and would it be wise ?  Personally , I would not over spend. I don't really agree with the Bradley argument. There is no reason why you could not thrive with Ellsbury and Bradley in the same outfield. The question is , how much would you want to spend on Ellsbury, who , while obviously talented , has not been consistent ? 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    It is difficult to try and read between the lines.  From what I can tell , Ellsbury likes playing in Boston. The question is ; will the Sox be willing to pay big bucks, and would it be wise ?  Personally , I would not over spend. I don't really agree with the Bradley argument. There is no reason why you could not thrive with Ellsbury and Bradley in the same outfield. The question is , how much would you want to spend on Ellsbury, who , while obviously talented , has not been consistent ? 




    All good points and I agree with them.

    I just got that bizarre subliminal feeling after listening to him that he has softened his attitude.

    You're right, I don't think Boston will pay the big bucks and, of course, will all know what Bora$ does.  So, it'll be interesting if Ellsbury decides that he WANTS to stay.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Not gonna happen unless Bradley's future becomes questionable and Ellsbury has an OK season where he signs a short-term deal for a delayed big payday afterwards.  It doesn't hurt his marketability to be a good soldier in the meantime.  

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to PaulLaCourse's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    After listening to Ellsbury's post game interview today, I got the impression that he may contemplate staying in Boston.

    This is completely contrary to what I have previously thought. 

    I'm not saying this would be a good thing for the team, but with his season not going as spectacular as anticipated(albeit today's game), I wonder if he is having second thoughts about worth, appreciation, and money.  Maybe he doesn't want to gamble with the free-agent market.  Maybe he's hoping for a decent Sox offer.  He knows most Boston fans think he walks on water.  Why chance it all?

    Did anyone come away with that feeling after hearing the interiew?  And, don't forget that he really doesn't like to intrview.

    Food for thought?

     




    After something great happens; i.e., a come from behind win, everyone loves each other and emotions run high. After a day or two when everyone comes back down to earth the same old feelings creep back in. I don't see Ellsbury staying with the Sox. At the end of the day it is still about the money.

     



    His agent is Borass. Nuff said. Besides, there is no room for Ellsbury with Bradley waiting to join the club, not for the money Ellsbury will collect. He is history. We should have traded him during the offseason.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    Having Bradley in center and Ells in left would be a great defensive outfield and give us two speedsters on the bases  With Vic's repeated  injuries and Gomes hitting .200 were not exactly overloaded with outfielders.  I would make Ells an offer 50 to 56 mil for 4 years  depending on his performace the rest of the season,                                                                                    

     

    . At this time we can't even trade unless we recieve a qualitly outfielder in return. And that makes no sence at all.




    Funny, those are right about the dollar numbers I had in mind, between $ 14 and maybe $ 16 million / year for four years.......depending upon performance over balance of season. IF he heats up, hits .290-.310 with total of perhaps 10-15 homers and 50 steals and GG caliber defense he's worth that in today's market.

    Merely continuing present performance nets him either 4 yrs/ $ 40 - 44 million, or more likely a one-year $ 13-15 million " pillow" contract for , essentially , a do-over.

    It really depends upon whether the drop in doubles / homers power is from lingering shoulder weakness or as theorized, a difference in swing / pull plate approach.  Ellsbury model 2007-2010 is worth $ 15 mil / year tops, but a version approximating even 80 % of 2011 model projects at $ 18 to even $ 20 / yr. Boras factor worries me but would LOVE the pillow one year deal possibility.

    Bradley looks okay but has yet to PROVE anything. An outield of Bradley in rf, Ells in cf would demand a true r/h power bat in left ( Giancarlo Stanton ?) plus more power from first and third.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I feel that the less he performs like a twenty million dollar ball player the more likely he stays in Boston.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I dont know, but his price tag just went up a few mil.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    The dilema---Ells may continue to grow his BA--hopefully by the TD he's .280 +. If he's in that neighborhood the Sox keep him and offer a QO about $14--he will turn it down --and sign for $14 = 4 or 5 years someplace--we get a pick.

    If he continues in the .250 neighborhood I suggest moving him because you know he will take the QO and we will have him in CF next season. Not the worst thing but he's not worth $14 even for one year.

    Conclusion:

    Trade ASAP--hopefully he has some good games in the next two weeks and we move him. ShaVic will be back--Bring up JBJ and take our chances.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

     

    The dilema---Ells may continue to grow his BA--hopefully by the TD he's .280 +. If he's in that neighborhood the Sox keep him and offer a QO about $14--he will turn it down --and sign for $14 = 4 or 5 years someplace--we get a pick.

    If he continues in the .250 neighborhood I suggest moving him because you know he will take the QO and we will have him in CF next season. Not the worst thing but he's not worth $14 even for one year.

    Conclusion:

    Trade ASAP--hopefully he has some good games in the next two weeks and we move him. ShaVic will be back--Bring up JBJ and take our chances.

     

     




     

     That's the million dollar question.  What could we get of value on the trade market.  And, of course, every GM in baseball is fully aware of the whole situation.  Deals like the Dodgers came up with are, IMHO, once in a lifetime occurance.

    Like I said, it will get interesting.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from fenwaymike33. Show fenwaymike33's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    After listening to Ellsbury's post game interview today, I got the impression that he may contemplate staying in Boston.

    This is completely contrary to what I have previously thought. 

    I'm not saying this would be a good thing for the team, but with his season not going as spectacular as anticipated(albeit today's game), I wonder if he is having second thoughts about worth, appreciation, and money.  Maybe he doesn't want to gamble with the free-agent market.  Maybe he's hoping for a decent Sox offer.  He knows most Boston fans think he walks on water.  Why chance it all?

    Did anyone come away with that feeling after hearing the interiew?  And, don't forget that he really doesn't like to intrview.

    Food for thought?



    He might not have many options. If and when the Sox give him a qualifying offer it might be his best option

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fenwaymike33. Show fenwaymike33's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Zero chance he stays with the Red Sox, even for this managment group. He's not a value or a fit. His best years are in the past, which is quite common for this kind of profile.

    The Red Sox have a near zero cost CF'er for years to come. Total incompetence to spend over 10 million a year for 3 centerfielders. Shane's value is in CF, not RF.

    Shane and Ellsbury, round 2, for about 30 million a year. Not a good plan;)

    I knew it was going to be hard on Red Sox fans to let it go with Ellsbury. And that's exactly why he's still here on the books. The notion that "we couldn't get anything in a trade worth making the trade" is pure lip service to pacify a large majority of the fans.

    Today showed exactly what happens when Ellsbury is forced to put the ball in play, instead of increase his 1 HR total through the first 2 months of the season.

    His highest value is in the NL, and if the Red Sox offered him anything more than a 1 year contract they would simply double down on moves like S. Drew and Crawbust.

    Big FA contracts are a huge mistake, with the exception of true young superstars profiles who fit the current roster construction in place. It's no surprise that his agent has called him "a franchise player", in an attempt to create a larger market that includes the Red Sox.

    This management has the massive payrolls that don't win playoff games because they keep making the same mistake, over and over. Signing FA castoff bums to make up for their incompetent mistakes caused by failure to antificpate and take advantage of the trade market.



    True, but the Sox will give him a qualifying offer in order to receive the draft pick. If Ellsbury and Boras decide that his best option is to take it and enter free agency again next year then the Sox are stuck. I dont think the Sox want him back either but there will be a gamble involved. Best case scenario is he has a great second half and looks like the 2011 Ellsbury. Then he will have more options and the Sox can get the draft pick and let him walk. It should be interesting

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Teakus. Show Teakus's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Ells is almost certainly leaving and should be traded by the deadline. Let's all hope he starts hitting, stealing like a madman, and playing great defense to increase his value for us. He's not happy here....it's gonna happen. The only question is: will we get a lot or a little for him? I also predict he's going to be a true stud for somebody for many years to come. Just won't be us. I pray we get good value for him in a trade. If he's allowed to walk and not traded, I promise to switch my allegience to the Dorchester Mud Hens of the peewee baseball league next season.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from fenwaymike33. Show fenwaymike33's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to Teakus' comment:

    Ells is almost certainly leaving and should be traded by the deadline. Let's all hope he starts hitting, stealing like a madman, and playing great defense to increase his value for us. He's not happy here....it's gonna happen. The only question is: will we get a lot or a little for him? I also predict he's going to be a true stud for somebody for many years to come. Just won't be us. I pray we get good value for him in a trade. If he's allowed to walk and not traded, I promise to switch my allegience to the Dorchester Mud Hens of the peewee baseball league next season.



    Tough to trade with new rules. Teams know he is a rental and they wont get the draft pick when he walks. If the Sox trade him they lose the draft pick. They would have to get someone more valuable than the draft pick they would get for him and I dont see that happening. Best case is hope he gets hot so he has offers and we can get the pick for him when he walks. Trading him in hindsight would have been best after the 2011 season

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    He is as good as gone   PERIOD!!!!!!!!!  I've been pretty much on the mark with these type of predictions over the years.  I believe it was on this board after the 2004 season that I said Pedro WAGAG, and ditto for Derek Lowe.  I called it with Damon after the 2005 season, with Nixon after 2006, and with Cody Ross last winter.  I've been wrong a couple of times but the players usually give themselves away and Ellsbury has.  He will not be in Boston next season and you can take it to the bank.  If it turns out differently you can take it to my bank---the blood bank.

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from fenwaymike33. Show fenwaymike33's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    True, but the Sox will give him a qualifying offer in order to receive the draft pick. If Ellsbury and Boras decide that his best option is to take it and enter free agency again next year then the Sox are stuck

    Ellsbury will be 30 years old for year one of his next contract. He's not coming off of one down season because of injury. The book is quite clear on Ellsbury, even removing the injury years. He's a CF profile who relies on speed who has a decent of not impressive OBP, adequate but not impressive defensively, who hits for higher average, does not have the physical assets to hit for pop and power over a multi-year contract, has high level base stealing capacity for another few years.

    An NL team would benefit from his services on the value and fit front, assuming his contract markret is no more than 4 or 5 years in the base 12 to 15 range.

    No chance he turns down the near certain 3 or 4 year deal and 60M plus to gamble on a big season at age 30. It moves him a year closer to the end of his career, which has the affect of a double edged sword. In the case of Beltre, he was coming off an injury season in the season preceding his FA, and he was not a case of a guy who was going to turn down 60M in the hand for 100M plus in the bush.

    Ellsbury will turn down the QO and likely end up in the NL, unless some stupid AL GM does something stupid on the market offer front.

    Ellsbury has issues on the "cash in" front, not just because his 2013 season, even with a big finish, isn't going to be overly impressive. But there is little reason for the Yankees, and no reason for the Red Sox to bid on Ellsbury.

    He will have a few good years left and end his career as platoon type of OF'er, once his speed declines.

    His career, going back to the college days, is neither a superstar or team leader type of player. He's a supporting role player whose 2nd call-up in 2007 resulted in irraltional exuberance as to the kind of potential talent he was.



    well said

     
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