Will Ellsbury Stay?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to fenwaymike33's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Zero chance he stays with the Red Sox, even for this managment group. He's not a value or a fit. His best years are in the past, which is quite common for this kind of profile.

    The Red Sox have a near zero cost CF'er for years to come. Total incompetence to spend over 10 million a year for 3 centerfielders. Shane's value is in CF, not RF.

    Shane and Ellsbury, round 2, for about 30 million a year. Not a good plan;)

    I knew it was going to be hard on Red Sox fans to let it go with Ellsbury. And that's exactly why he's still here on the books. The notion that "we couldn't get anything in a trade worth making the trade" is pure lip service to pacify a large majority of the fans.

    Today showed exactly what happens when Ellsbury is forced to put the ball in play, instead of increase his 1 HR total through the first 2 months of the season.

    His highest value is in the NL, and if the Red Sox offered him anything more than a 1 year contract they would simply double down on moves like S. Drew and Crawbust.

    Big FA contracts are a huge mistake, with the exception of true young superstars profiles who fit the current roster construction in place. It's no surprise that his agent has called him "a franchise player", in an attempt to create a larger market that includes the Red Sox.

    This management has the massive payrolls that don't win playoff games because they keep making the same mistake, over and over. Signing FA castoff bums to make up for their incompetent mistakes caused by failure to antificpate and take advantage of the trade market.

     



    True, but the Sox will give him a qualifying offer in order to receive the draft pick. If Ellsbury and Boras decide that his best option is to take it and enter free agency again next year then the Sox are stuck. I dont think the Sox want him back either but there will be a gamble involved. Best case scenario is he has a great second half and looks like the 2011 Ellsbury. Then he will have more options and the Sox can get the draft pick and let him walk. It should be interesting

     




    Very well put.  This is exactly the way I feel but didn't articulate it.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    1%.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Less than Zero.... decent movie




    Good afternoon for you there, buddy....of course, 1:00AM for me.

    I always thought 0% too, but the way he talked today.....gives me second thoughts.  Personally though, I hope he leaves.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    he may ask for one year to rebuild his value, then leave




    Yeah, that makes sense.  Especially, if no one gets sucked into the price Bora$ wants.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

     

    Ellsbury will be gone. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I could see a 3 way trade involving the...

    Dodgers and the Sox and?   Ells / Ethier and ?

    or Ells / Pence and ?

    or Ells / Morneau and ?

    with the Sox getting the missing piece.

    I just don't see BenC. putting himself in the position of having to offer: A.  Ells a QO or B. Be in a position where he returns next year. C. for the hope of havng a decent draft pick if they are one of the last 10 teams to draft.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Nobody is going to give up anything worth what the draft pick will be the way hes hitting, and if he heats way up and is killing it, you certainly dont want him going anywhere. The Sox have had pretty good luck with late round and comp picks.

    He's gone after the season. 0% chance hes here in 2014, IMHO.There will be teams that will give him a 4yr deal between 12-16M depending on performance. Hes not the 2011 Ellsbury, but can still be a solid 300BA 360OBP and about 450SLG player with 40SB 10HR a bunch of 2b and decent defense. depending on how far off he is on those numbers will decide what end of the 12-16M he gets and possibly a 5th or even 6th year, although I dont see him getting 6yr. Ive seen crazier things in FA though.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    All players talk like they are happy where they are during the season.  Unless Ellsbury continues to struggle and decides to accept a Qualifying Offer as a second chance, he will be gone after this season.   The Sox will NOT extend him...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    The Sox will qualify him but I don't believe they offer him a long term deal. Some team like Seattle will offer him a huge long term deal and the Sox will take the pk and wave goodbye.

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to notin's comment:

    All players talk like they are happy where they are during the season.  Unless Ellsbury continues to struggle and decides to accept a Qualifying Offer as a second chance, he will be gone after this season.   The Sox will NOT extend him...



    That's my 1% scenario.

    I wouldn't argue with less than 1%.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from threejak. Show threejak's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Someone would have to explain to me how a .250 hitter with little displayed power is worth anywhere in the neightbourhood of $20M....Oh and ealing with Boras must be the bonus right?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Anything's possible, of course, but I think he goes because he is becoming redundant now that Bradley looks ready to take the next step.  Both are excellent fielders who can hit, but not dingers, and Bradley is younger, cheaper, and a better outfielder.  With Victorino signed for three years, I don't see the Sox committing to a totally lightweight but good fielding outfield.  Actually, Nava is probably a better fit than Ellsbury for left field--less range, but a better arm and a better bat (so far this year). 

    I do not at all believe Ellsbury is hung up on hitting dingers.  His problem is he cannot consistently hit a round ball with a round bat squarely.  If he were swinging for the fences, he wouldn't hit so many grounders.   He has hit to left plenty of times, but not squarely, so he either grounds out or flies out. 

    And just so we are straight on something else.  In Bull Durham Kevin Costner points out that the difference between a .300 hitter, which Ellsbury has been, and a .250 hitter, which Ellsbury is right now, is one hit a week.  Assume 500 at bats, and 125 hits is .250 and 150 hits is .300. 

    Right now Bradley is hitting over .300 in his first season of AAA at Pawtucket.  Ellsbury is faster, but Bradley has incredible instincts for the ball and a great arm.   I've always been a big Ellsbury fan, but I just don't see how he fits in right now short of the Sox unloading Victorino, which looks impossible at this point. 

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Always liked Ells, but he's gone after this season.  Some hard luck injuries hurt his career, and don't think Boras advising him has helped his cause either.  Believe he genuinely loves playing for Boston though.  Bradley will be a better lead-off hitter because he's a really good obp guy, gives us a better arm in the outfield and at least equivalent defense, and he won't cost much for several more years.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Always liked Ells, but he's gone after this season.  Some hard luck injuries hurt his career, and don't think Boras advising him has helped his cause either.  Believe he genuinely loves playing for Boston though.  Bradley will be a better lead-off hitter because he's a really good obp guy, gives us a better arm in the outfield and at least equivalent defense, and he won't cost much for several more years.




    Bradley will get the same advise as Ellsbury cause they have the same agent.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    For reasons I articulated, Ellsbury will decline the QO. His career averages and age 30 will result in offers of at least 3 or 4 years and 50 to 60 million. Moving his age another year older and then seeking 100M plus isn't going to happen. Too much to lose and not enough to gain. His agent will not be able to get him to agree to turn down those offers and take a QO. The only exception would be if he and his immediate family were independently wealthy. That is not the case.

    Ellsbury is like nearly all professional sports entertainers, he has dozens of people depending on him to provide financial support. Larry Bird said he has dozens. There is no chance he takes a QO and risk leaving about 50M on the table, to roll the dice one more time and see if they come up 7 come 11 for another 50M. The current climate is moving against that and he will be a year older.

    The dynamics for accepting a QO simply don't work.


    Unless he turns things around this year, I doubt a 30-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury will top the four-year, $48 million contract Scott Boras landed last offseason for 30-year-old Michael Bourn (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million).

     
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