Will Ellsbury Stay?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    The whole idea is to replace Ells with a beter player. As we speak we have no one ready to step up and take his place .

    As we speak, Ellsbury is at best an average overall CF'er with a WAR just better than a replacement player. He is the easiest player to replace out of our starting 9.

     

    Vic's 13 mil for three years is a joke and add Gomes 5 mil makes me sick    18 mil wasted on a .200 hiter and a injury prone middle of the road player.    . No team will want either in trade.

    They both get on base way more than Jacoby.

     

    Unless we get an outfielder in trade or Bradley proves he can play were not likely to see an upgrade over Ells.

    Bradley's defense in CF makes him even with Ellsbury at worst... as we speak.

    An OF of Gomes/Carp in LF, Victorino in CF (if and when healty), and Nava in RF is as good as what we have now, as long as Ellsbury continues his offensive woes.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Anything's possible, of course, but I think he goes because he is becoming redundant now that Bradley looks ready to take the next step.  Both are excellent fielders who can hit, but not dingers, and Bradley is younger, cheaper, and a better outfielder.  With Victorino signed for three years, I don't see the Sox committing to a totally lightweight but good fielding outfield.  Actually, Nava is probably a better fit than Ellsbury for left field--less range, but a better arm and a better bat (so far this year). 

    I do not at all believe Ellsbury is hung up on hitting dingers.  His problem is he cannot consistently hit a round ball with a round bat squarely.  If he were swinging for the fences, he wouldn't hit so many grounders.   He has hit to left plenty of times, but not squarely, so he either grounds out or flies out. 

    And just so we are straight on something else.  In Bull Durham Kevin Costner points out that the difference between a .300 hitter, which Ellsbury has been, and a .250 hitter, which Ellsbury is right now, is one hit a week.  Assume 500 at bats, and 125 hits is .250 and 150 hits is .300. 

    Right now Bradley is hitting over .300 in his first season of AAA at Pawtucket.  Ellsbury is faster, but Bradley has incredible instincts for the ball and a great arm.   I've always been a big Ellsbury fan, but I just don't see how he fits in right now short of the Sox unloading Victorino, which looks impossible at this point. 



    This could be a couple things..Swinging too hard (for the fences) and rolling over on the ball, thus, resulting in weak ground balls. Trying to pull everything, including outside pitches that should be driven the other way.

    His approach has been awful and I think Ells is a good player who will correct it.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    For reasons I articulated, Ellsbury will decline the QO. His career averages and age 30 will result in offers of at least 3 or 4 years and 50 to 60 million.Moving his age another year older and then seeking 100M plus isn't going to happen. Too much to lose and not enough to gain. His agent will not be able to get him to agree to turn down those offers and take a QO. The only exception would be if he and his immediate family were independently wealthy. That is not the case.

     

    Ellsbury is like nearly all professional sports entertainers, he has dozens of people depending on him to provide financial support. Larry Bird said he has dozens. There is no chance he takes a QO and risk leaving about 50M on the table, to roll the dice one more time and see if they come up 7 come 11 for another 50M. The current climate is moving against that and he will be a year older.

    The dynamics for accepting a QO simply don't work.


    Unless he turns things around this year, I doubt a 30-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury will top the four-year, $48 million contract Scott Boras landed last offseason for 30-year-old Michael Bourn (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million).

     



    Exactly, and Bourn has been healthier, more consistent over the last 3-4 years, and did not have BorA$$ as his agent.

    I doubt Ells takes the QO, but a 1% chance is not out of the question if Ellsbury ends up  under .260/.320. There may be some idiot GM out there, but if Jacoby thinks all he'll get is a $44/4 or $48M/4 deal, he may take $13M/1 in hopes that he has a big year and cashed in at more than $31/3 to $35M/3 that would break him even. Yeah, it's a risk, but if he has the ego some here think he has, he may bank on himself to have a huge 2014 season and then get the big deal he surely wants.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrmojo1120. Show mrmojo1120's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/keys-series-limit-ellsbury-no-late-ties

    Boston is 14-7 this season and averages 5.5 runs when Ellsbury reaches at least twice in a game. When he doesn’t, the Sox winning percentage is 100 points lower and they average just 3.2 runs per game. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Unless he turns things around this year, I doubt a 30-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury will top the four-year, $48 million contract Scott Boras landed last offseason for 30-year-old Michael Bourn (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million). -hill55

     

    Bourn: Over 600 PAs for 4 straight seasons. He has a low SLG%, but his OBP has been consistently .340 and .355.

    2009:  .354/.384/.738  (61 SB/12 CS)

    2010:  .341/.346/.686  (52/12)

    2011:  .349/.386/.734  (61/14 3rd straight year leading NL in SBs)

    2012:  .348/.391/.739  (42/13)

    (2013:  .363/.448/.810)

    Ellsbury has been under 325 in 2 of the last 4 years. He had a big slugging year in 2011, but has been much lower the other 3.

    2009: .355/.415/.770   (SB 70/12 CS)

    2010: .241/.244/.485 (just 84 PAs)  (7/1)

    2011: .376/.552/.928  (39/15)

    2012: .313/.370/.682  (14/3)

     (2013: .319/.338/.657)

    If his 2013 continues as is, and you knock off 2009, his last 4 years will be way worse than Bourn's.

     

    2009-2012:

    Bourn 18.8 WAR 2nd in MLB (CF)

    Ellsbury: 12.4 WAR (12th)

    Bourn (2708)  .280/.348/.378/726  216 SB/51 CS

    Ellsb  (1665)  .298/.351/.453/.804  130 SB/31 CS

    Ells '10-'13

             (1374)  .289/.343/.452/.795  75 SB/ 21 CS

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Unless he turns things around this year, I doubt a 30-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury will top the four-year, $48 million contract Scott Boras landed last offseason for 30-year-old Michael Bourn

     

    Ellsbury has an OPS career that is about 100 points higher than Bourn, much higher career BA, and a higher career OPS, much higher career slugging percentage, a more gifted hitter at the plate.

     


    Games played, or does that only matter for Lackey and S Drew?

     

    OBP in the last 4 years:

    Bourn  .348 ('09-'12)

    Ellsb    .343 ('10-'13)

     

    SB/CS last 4:

    Bourn : 216/51

    Ellsb:  75/21

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    You'll need to provide more than just anecdotal stats. If someone else with a higher OBP gets on more often, these numbers are likely similar or even better with someone else who gets on base with a higher OBP than Ellsbury does.

    Is this supposed to make sense?

    You also fail to provide other statistical variables that impact the averages and the resulting WL.

    Does this mean anything?

    I recommend you refresh young numbers analysis by reading "How to Lie with Statistics". 

    They wrote that book based on you and your lies (see your "do the math" thread.)




     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Some stats for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn since the start of the 2012 season:

    JE 558 PA, .262/.315/.357/.672, OPS+ 80

    MB 816 PA, .280/.350/.399/.749, OPS+ 103

    Ellsbury presents at high-risk gamble that he might approach his ever-distant 2011 numbers while Bourn has been a consistent producer.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Some stats for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn since the start of the 2012 season:

    JE 558 PA, .262/.315/.357/.672, OPS+ 80

    MB 816 PA, .280/.350/.399/.749, OPS+ 103

    Ellsbury presents at high-risk gamble that he might approach his ever-distant 2011 numbers while Bourn has been a consistent producer.



    hill, think about it: softy had to go way back to the pre-AGon signing year to find something to criticize you for, and that a mistake made way back then, somehow means you can never be right again.

    We only have to go back a few minutes to find mistakes made by the silly clown.

    softy also drones on and on about CF defense, but neglects to count that into the Bourn-Ellsbury equation.

    2010-2013 CF UZR

    1) Bourn  37.8

    2) Young 27.5 (Not even close)

    3) D Span 27.2

    4) Jackson 12.3 (Bourn is more than 43 times better than the #4 guy)

    5) Maybin  6.5

    Note: Ellsbury DNQ'd on this list, but is at 24.4.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:

    http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/keys-series-limit-ellsbury-no-late-ties

    Boston is 14-7 this season and averages 5.5 runs when Ellsbury reaches at least twice in a game. When he doesn’t, the Sox winning percentage is 100 points lower and they average just 3.2 runs per game. 


    This is the bottom line stat. 100 points lower, wow.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    Some stats for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn since the start of the 2012 season:

    JE 558 PA, .262/.315/.357/.672, OPS+ 80

    MB 816 PA, .280/.350/.399/.749, OPS+ 103

    Ellsbury presents at high-risk gamble that he might approach his ever-distant 2011 numbers while Bourn has been a consistent producer.

     



    hill, think about it: softy had to go way back to the pre-AGon signing year to find something to criticize you for, and that a mistake made way back then, somehow means you can never be right again.

     

    We only have to go back a few minutes to find mistakes made by the silly clown.

    softy also drones on and on about CF defense, but neglects to count that into the Bourn-Ellsbury equation.

    2010-2013 CF UZR

    1) Bourn  37.8

    2) Young 27.5 (Not even close)

    3) D Span 27.2

    4) Jackson 12.3 (Bourn is more than 43 times better than the #4 guy)

    5) Maybin  6.5

    Note: Ellsbury DNQ'd on this list, but is at 24.4.

     



    All contract factors aside. You can have either Ellsbury or Bourn.  Who do you take ?   I would take Ellsbury over Bourn.   What about you ? 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Some stats for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn since the start of the 2012 season:

    JE 558 PA, .262/.315/.357/.672, OPS+ 80

    MB 816 PA, .280/.350/.399/.749, OPS+ 103

    Ellsbury presents at high-risk gamble that he might approach his ever-distant 2011 numbers while Bourn has been a consistent producer.

    hill, think about it: softy had to go way back to the pre-AGon signing year to find something to criticize you for, and that a mistake made way back then, somehow means you can never be right again.

    We only have to go back a few minutes to find mistakes made by the silly clown.

    softy also drones on and on about CF defense, but neglects to count that into the Bourn-Ellsbury equation.

    2010-2013 CF UZR

    1) Bourn  37.8

    2) Young 27.5 (Not even close)

    3) D Span 27.2

    4) Jackson 12.3 (Bourn is more than 43 times better than the #4 guy)

    5) Maybin  6.5

    Note: Ellsbury DNQ'd on this list, but is at 24.4.

    All contract factors aside. You can have either Ellsbury or Bourn.  Who do you take ?   I would take Ellsbury over Bourn.   What about you ? 



    In as much as I'm a fan of Jacoby Ellsbury, I would take Michael Bourn for his consistency.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The whole idea is to replace Ells with a beter player. As we speak we have no one ready to step up and take his place .

    As we speak, Ellsbury is at best an average overall CF'er with a WAR just better than a replacement player. He is the easiest player to replace out of our starting 9.

     

    Vic's 13 mil for three years is a joke and add Gomes 5 mil makes me sick    18 mil wasted on a .200 hiter and a injury prone middle of the road player.    . No team will want either in trade.

    They both get on base way more than Jacoby.

     

    Unless we get an outfielder in trade or Bradley proves he can play were not likely to see an upgrade over Ells.

    Bradley's defense in CF makes him even with Ellsbury at worst... as we speak.

    An OF of Gomes/Carp in LF, Victorino in CF (if and when healty), and Nava in RF is as good as what we have now, as long as Ellsbury continues his offensive woes.

     


    Carp was a last miuute solution to the Napoli .injury and will never be an outfielder.
    Bradley is still unproven  Bentz is more than likely two years away

     

    Gomes career OBP is lower than Ells.  Victorino's about the same as Ells.  Carp is no outfielder and only hit .213 las year

    Big If on Vic he's hurt and only hit .255 last year.   Gomes can only play in left and not that great there.

    As I said were not in the position to lose any outfielders.

    Nava I'll take

    18 mil for two average outfielders will prove to be a mistake.

    Take off those Rose colored glasses. We have a poor outfield compared to the other contenders.

     

     



    Where did I say our OF was good or even decent?

    I am just comparing our other OF options to the dismal Ellsbury.

    Gomes should play vs LHPs only, and his OBP vs them is among the league leaders over the past 3-4 years. He blows Jacoby away vs LHPs. Nava blows jacoby away vs RHPs. Victorino blows jacoby away vs LHPs. All we need is a decent CF'er vs RHPs. It could have been a scrap heep platoon OF'er as a bridge to JBJ in 2014 or the end of this season. (David DeJesus has a .370 OBP vs RHPs since 2010. Seth Smith .352)

    2010-2013- 101 OF'ers with 300+ PAs vs LHPs OBP:

    9) Gomes       .391

    11) Victorino  .387

    63) Ellsbury   .330

     

    2010-2013 - 132 OF'ers with 500+ PAs vs RHPs OBP:

    7) Nava        .385

    34) Ellsbury  .349

    95) Victorino  .314

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    All contract factors aside. You can have either Ellsbury or Bourn.  Who do you take ?   I would take Ellsbury over Bourn.   What about you ? 



    In as much as I'm a fan of Jacoby Ellsbury, I would take Michael Bourn for his consistency.

     

    I'd take Bourn from 2013-2016 at $12M a year over Ellsbury from 2014-2017 at the same money.

    I think Bourn is a better fielder, has a better arm, has a steady OBP since 2010, steals about the same amount of bases, and hardly ever gets hurt.

    Ellsbury has more power, but it is very inconsistent. 

    Even if I knew they'd both have the same amount of PAs over a 4 year deal, it's a close call.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Ellsbury looks like he might just have found his batting stroke again.  3 doubles and a single in his last 4 AB.

    If he gets hot it'll be interesting to see if people start to raise their estimates on the offers he'll get. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Some stats for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn since the start of the 2012 season:

    JE 558 PA, .262/.315/.357/.672, OPS+ 80

    MB 816 PA, .280/.350/.399/.749, OPS+ 103

    Ellsbury presents at high-risk gamble that he might approach his ever-distant 2011 numbers while Bourn has been a consistent producer.




    How about Jesus Montero turning out to be a bust?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Ellsbury looks like he might just have found his batting stroke again.  3 doubles and a single in his last 4 AB.

    If he gets hot it'll be interesting to see if we see people start to raise their estimates on the offers he'll get. 



    The more I bad mouth Jacoby, the better he does.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    You didn't  I'm sorry for implying   It seemed like you were happy with your platoon scenario's. 

    I've read the same stats as you.  Lack of run production and power from Gomes Vic and Ells concerns me more.

    I'm still not happy.

    Give me Nava sell of the rest



    Jeez, cheer up.  They're about to be 10-3 in the last 13, averaging about 6 runs a game over that stretch.

     

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Ellsbury is going nowhere until the season is over. Then, it depends on his performance. If his OPS is about 700-760 he probably gets the qualifying offer and stays, partly because of the compensation factor. Over 760 and he leaves with a long contract. Under 700 and he leaves with no qualifying offer compensation. Thats how I see it.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The whole idea is to replace Ells with a beter player. As we speak we have no one ready to step up and take his place .

    As we speak, Ellsbury is at best an average overall CF'er with a WAR just better than a replacement player. He is the easiest player to replace out of our starting 9.

     

    Vic's 13 mil for three years is a joke and add Gomes 5 mil makes me sick    18 mil wasted on a .200 hiter and a injury prone middle of the road player.    . No team will want either in trade.

    They both get on base way more than Jacoby.

     

    Unless we get an outfielder in trade or Bradley proves he can play were not likely to see an upgrade over Ells.

    Bradley's defense in CF makes him even with Ellsbury at worst... as we speak.

    An OF of Gomes/Carp in LF, Victorino in CF (if and when healty), and Nava in RF is as good as what we have now, as long as Ellsbury continues his offensive woes.

     


    Carp was a last miuute solution to the Napoli .injury and will never be an outfielder.
    Bradley is still unproven  Bentz is more than likely two years away

     

    Gomes career OBP is lower than Ells.  Victorino's about the same as Ells.  Carp is no outfielder and only hit .213 las year

    Big If on Vic he's hurt and only hit .255 last year.   Gomes can only play in left and not that great there.

    As I said were not in the position to lose any outfielders.

    Nava I'll take

    18 mil for two average outfielders will prove to be a mistake.

    Take off those Rose colored glasses. We have a poor outfield compared to the other contenders.

     

     

     



    Where did I say our OF was good or even decent?

     

    I am just comparing our other OF options to the dismal Ellsbury.

    Gomes should play vs LHPs only, and his OBP vs them is among the league leaders over the past 3-4 years. He blows Jacoby away vs LHPs. Nava blows jacoby away vs RHPs. Victorino blows jacoby away vs LHPs. All we need is a decent CF'er vs RHPs. It could have been a scrap heep platoon OF'er as a bridge to JBJ in 2014 or the end of this season. (David DeJesus has a .370 OBP vs RHPs since 2010. Seth Smith .352)

    2010-2013- 101 OF'ers with 300+ PAs vs LHPs OBP:

    9) Gomes       .391

    11) Victorino  .387

    63) Ellsbury   .330

     

    2010-2013 - 132 OF'ers with 500+ PAs vs RHPs OBP:

    7) Nava        .385

    34) Ellsbury  .349

    95) Victorino  .314

     

     

     



    You didn't  I'm sorry for implying   It seemed like you were happy with your platoon scenario's. 

     

    I've read the same stats as you.  Lack of run production and power from Gomes Vic and Ells concerns me more.

    I'm still not happy.

    Give me Nava sell of the rest



    I wanted us to trade for J Upton and sign Angel Pagan.

    I wanted us to trade Ellsbury.

    I was not happy with the Victorino signing.

    Once it became clear that Upton was not going tobecome our LF'er, I was happy we signed the poor man's Cody Ross (Gomes). I stated that a Gomes/Nava platoon in LF could net us the highest OBP position on the team.

    I'm not happy with our current OF, but I'd like to see JBJ in CF. I'm still OK with Gomes in LF vs LHPs and Nava vs RHPs. Nava may have to play vs LHPs in RF until Victorino gets back. It's not pretty.

     
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