Will Ellsbury Stay?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Some stats for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn since the start of the 2012 season:

    JE 558 PA, .262/.315/.357/.672, OPS+ 80

    MB 816 PA, .280/.350/.399/.749, OPS+ 103

    Ellsbury presents at high-risk gamble that he might approach his ever-distant 2011 numbers while Bourn has been a consistent producer.

    How about Jesus Montero turning out to be a bust?



    Some top prospects don't pan out ... I can accept that.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    All contract factors aside. You can have either Ellsbury or Bourn.  Who do you take ?   I would take Ellsbury over Bourn.   What about you ? 



    In as much as I'm a fan of Jacoby Ellsbury, I would take Michael Bourn for his consistency.

     

    I'd take Bourn from 2013-2016 at $12M a year over Ellsbury from 2014-2017 at the same money.

    I think Bourn is a better fielder, has a better arm, has a steady OBP since 2010, steals about the same amount of bases, and hardly ever gets hurt.

    Ellsbury has more power, but it is very inconsistent. 

    Even if I knew they'd both have the same amount of PAs over a 4 year deal, it's a close call.      Moonslav and Hill will twist anything to support their erroneous opinions.  Talk about consistency and start from 2012 ?  Ridiculous. How is that consistency ? Here are the career numbers:  Bourne : 897 games. 24 Home runs. . 273 BA. 707 OPS.     Ellsbury : 631 games.  57 Home runs..293 BA. 780 OPS. " Consistency " would be reflected in career numbers. Not " since 2012 " .  Hill will always try to disparage a Sox player, and Moonslav plays along. I am not saying this to defend Ellsbury.  He has not played well so far this year.   But you guys  are way off base. Bourn is an average player. Rating him over Ellsbury is absurd. I am quite certain that very few knowledgable baseball people would agree with you.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fenwaymike33. Show fenwaymike33's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Absolutely ridiculous. Moonslav and Hill will twist anything to support their erroneous opinions. Talk about consistency and start from 2012 ? Ridiculous. How is that consistency ? Here are the career numbers: Bourne : 897 games. 24 Home runs. . 273 BA. 707 OPS. Ellsbury : 631 games. 57 Home runs..293 BA. 780 OPS. " Consistency " would be reflected in career numbers. Not " since 2012 " . Hill will always try to disparage a Sox player, and Moonslav has his obvious biases. I am not saying this to defend Ellsbury. He has not played well so far this year. I am a big fan of Bradley Jr. But you guys are way off base. Bourn is an average player. Rating him over Ellsbury is absurd. I am quite certain that very few knowledgable baseball people would agree with you. Your agenda is showing

    With their mundanity, they are the epitome of the book "How to Lie with Statistics". Anyone who uses "WAR" may as well advocate astrology. The snipet sample sizes are always obvious in what they leave out.

    The modus of these stat geese is they like to try to impress the readers by using stat samples as a contrarian to garner attention.

    At the end of the day, any intelligent reader ignores the stat snipets and does their own simple research and draws their own conclusions.

    You will also notice how both of them troll my and a few others' threads and comments and work overtime as contrarians.

    This thread brings out:

    1. The trolling contrarians

    2. The delusional who think there is chance Ellsbury will take a QO



    If Ellsbury goes back in a slump and finishes the season as bad as he started I dont think he will have many options and the smart move for him would be to take the QO. Now if he improves his market and turns his season around (which he is starting to do) then there is no way he will take the QO.  

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from fenwaymike33. Show fenwaymike33's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    All contract factors aside. You can have either Ellsbury or Bourn.  Who do you take ?   I would take Ellsbury over Bourn.   What about you ? 



    In as much as I'm a fan of Jacoby Ellsbury, I would take Michael Bourn for his consistency.

     

    I'd take Bourn from 2013-2016 at $12M a year over Ellsbury from 2014-2017 at the same money.

    I think Bourn is a better fielder, has a better arm, has a steady OBP since 2010, steals about the same amount of bases, and hardly ever gets hurt.

    Ellsbury has more power, but it is very inconsistent. 

    Even if I knew they'd both have the same amount of PAs over a 4 year deal, it's a close call.      Moonslav and Hill will twist anything to support their erroneous opinions.  Talk about consistency and start from 2012 ?  Ridiculous. How is that consistency ? Here are the career numbers:  Bourne : 897 games. 24 Home runs. . 273 BA. 707 OPS.     Ellsbury : 631 games.  57 Home runs..293 BA. 780 OPS. " Consistency " would be reflected in career numbers. Not " since 2012 " .  Hill will always try to disparage a Sox player, and Moonslav plays along. I am not saying this to defend Ellsbury.  He has not played well so far this year.   But you guys  are way off base. Bourn is an average player. Rating him over Ellsbury is absurd. I am quite certain that very few knowledgable baseball people would agree with you.



    The Braves messed up by letting Bourn go and signing BJ instead

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to fenwaymike33's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Absolutely ridiculous. Moonslav and Hill will twist anything to support their erroneous opinions. Talk about consistency and start from 2012 ? Ridiculous. How is that consistency ? Here are the career numbers: Bourne : 897 games. 24 Home runs. . 273 BA. 707 OPS. Ellsbury : 631 games. 57 Home runs..293 BA. 780 OPS. " Consistency " would be reflected in career numbers. Not " since 2012 " . Hill will always try to disparage a Sox player, and Moonslav has his obvious biases. I am not saying this to defend Ellsbury. He has not played well so far this year. I am a big fan of Bradley Jr. But you guys are way off base. Bourn is an average player. Rating him over Ellsbury is absurd. I am quite certain that very few knowledgable baseball people would agree with you. Your agenda is showing

    With their mundanity, they are the epitome of the book "How to Lie with Statistics". Anyone who uses "WAR" may as well advocate astrology. The snipet sample sizes are always obvious in what they leave out.

    The modus of these stat geese is they like to try to impress the readers by using stat samples as a contrarian to garner attention.

    At the end of the day, any intelligent reader ignores the stat snipets and does their own simple research and draws their own conclusions.

    You will also notice how both of them troll my and a few others' threads and comments and work overtime as contrarians.

    This thread brings out:

    1. The trolling contrarians

    2. The delusional who think there is chance Ellsbury will take a QO

     



    If Ellsbury goes back in a slump and finishes the season as bad as he started I dont think he will have many options and the smart move for him would be to take the QO. Now if he improves his market and turns his season around (which he is starting to do) then there is no way he will take the QO.  

     



    That is not the point. The point is ; one cannot prove a point by twisting stats to suit their purpose.  How can you use the word " consistent " and then pick out one year from a career to make your case ? 

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    If Ellsbury goes back in a slump and finishes the season as bad as he started I dont think he will have many options and the smart move for him would be to take the QO

    There is no chance that what Ellsbury's career sample size and age is that he will not get an offer of at least 3 or 4 years and 50 to 60M. And, there is no chance he turns that down and takes the QO. That is a pipe dream. Regardess of what he does on the 2013 stat book, if he passes the physical then he's going to be under a multi-year contract for another team if Red Sox managment correctly makes the QO and does not make a competitive maket value bid.

     Absolutely .  No matter what anyone says about Boras , he is not a fool.  Ellsbury will never again come close to his 2011 numbers. He will take the best long term contract offer available. That is the most logical thing to do. 

     




     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom2. Show proftom2's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I'd love it if Ells stays. But, I don't think he does. I think he gets traded like Nomar did for players to improve the team this years.  I bet he stays hot, hits around 300+ and 10+ homers and gets traded at the dealine to a west coast team. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I do agree that it's highly unlikely Ellsbury will be accepting a QO.  Too risky.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    From Monday's chat with FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-52813/

    9:54 Comment From harmony
    Contracts aside, who is currently the more valuable player: Jacoby Ellsbury or Michael Bourn? What will Ellsbury need to accomplish this year to top Bourn’s four-year, $48 million contract?

     

     

     

    9:55 Jeff Sullivan: Bourn, probably, by a bit. Ellsbury could start by being a more average hitter

     

      9:56 Jeff Sullivan: It’d be good to see Ellsbury reach a .340 OBP or so. But he’s going to get paid. He’s got a lot of name value to him, and the right agent

     

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    All contract factors aside. You can have either Ellsbury or Bourn.  Who do you take ?   I would take Ellsbury over Bourn.   What about you ? 



    In as much as I'm a fan of Jacoby Ellsbury, I would take Michael Bourn for his consistency.

     

    I'd take Bourn from 2013-2016 at $12M a year over Ellsbury from 2014-2017 at the same money.

    I think Bourn is a better fielder, has a better arm, has a steady OBP since 2010, steals about the same amount of bases, and hardly ever gets hurt.

    Ellsbury has more power, but it is very inconsistent. 

    Even if I knew they'd both have the same amount of PAs over a 4 year deal, it's a close call.  

        Moonslav and Hill will twist anything to support their erroneous opinions.  Talk about consistency and start from 2012 ?  Ridiculous. How is that consistency ? Here are the career numbers:  Bourne : 897 games. 24 Home runs. . 273 BA. 707 OPS.     Ellsbury : 631 games.  57 Home runs..293 BA. 780 OPS. " Consistency " would be reflected in career numbers.

    I do not change my criteria to match my opinion- ever.

    I am not softy.

    Unlike softy and others, I recognize that players can get better or worse, and I keep open the idea that my opinion may change about a player. 

    I don't use career numbers as much as the previous 2-4 year sample sizes. I think what a player has done over the last 4 years is a large enough sample size to determine possible future numbers, unless the player is old or has had a recent serious injury.

    Bourn has been very consistent the last 4 years. Ellsbury has not. Bourn has played almost 4 straight seasons without injury. Ellsbury has not. To deny this is to twist reality to suit your opinion. 4 years is 4 years. What Bourn did 5 years ago does have some meaning, but not as much as his last 4 year's numbers.

    Not " since 2012 " .  Hill will always try to disparage a Sox player, and Moonslav plays along.

    Get a grip, dude. I have defended Ellsbury over the years more than anyone on this site, except boom. I'm not playing along with anyone. I'm saying I'd rather have Bourn from 2013-2016 at $48M than Ellsbury from 2014-2017 for $48M. It's a close call, but I think the choice is clear.

    I am not saying this to defend Ellsbury.  He has not played well so far this year.  

    Or, last year.

    But you guys  are way off base. Bourn is an average player.

    He's above average. He's overpaid at $12M per year, but that's the way Free agency works.

    Rating him over Ellsbury is absurd. I am quite certain that very few knowledgable baseball people would agree with you.




    I'm not seeking your approval or anyone elses for that matter. 

    I am basing my opinion on this:

    Ellsbury cannot be counted on to play, let alone produce. Bourn is not great, but he is steady and reliable.

    Ellsbury is an over-rated fielder. Bourn has been the best fielding CF'er the last 3-4 years, and has a much better arm. In Fenway, that's huge.

    Speed? Ellsbury can steel more bases, but he gets thrown out more often running and stealing.

    Ellsbury has more power, but it's been about 2 years since we've seen it.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I do agree that it's highly unlikely Ellsbury will be accepting a QO.  Too risky.



    I agree, but I didn't think saying it's a 1% or less chance is acting like I think it will happen.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    That is not the point. The point is ; one cannot prove a point by twisting stats to suit their purpose.  How can you use the word " consistent " and then pick out one year from a career to make your case ?

    How can one use the word "consistent" and then cite cumulative career stats?

    Jacoby Ellsbury had a historically awesome season in 2011. At the same time, Ellsbury's 2011 season was a historic outlier in relation to his other seasons.

    Here are the year-by-year breakdowns, using a favorite traditional stat:

    2007: JE 127 PA, OPS .902; MB 133 PA, OPS .727

    2008: JE 609 PA, OPS .729; MB 514 PA, OPS .588

    2009: JE 693 PA, OPS .770; MB 678 PA, OPS .738

    2010: JE 84 PA, OPS .485; MB 605 PA, OPS .686

    2011: JE: 732 PA, OPS .928; MB 722 PA, OPS .734

    2012: JE: 323 PA, OPS .682;  MB 703 PA, OPS .739

    2013: JE: 240 PA, OPS .678; MB 117 PA, OPS .782

    Bourn's four straight seasons of at least 600 plate appearances (and five straight of at least 500) is one sign of consistency.

    Bourn has a career OPS+ of 91 while Ellsbury has a career OPS+ of 104. However, Ellsbury's career OPS+ is skewed by his extreme outlier 2011 season. Ellsbury had a career OPS+ of 93 in 1,513 plate appearances before 2011 and has an OPS+ of 82 in 563 plate appearances since the 2011 season.

    The number reflect solely one aspect of hitting. The all-encompassing WAR* magnifies the differences in consistency between Ellsbury and Bourn since 2008:

    2006: JE NA, MB -0.1

    2007: JE 1.3, MB 1.1

    2008: JE 4.1, MB -0.2

    2009: JE 2.1, MB 4.6

    2010: JE -0.2, MB 4.3

    2011: JE 9.1, MB 3.7

    2012: JE 1.4, MB 6.1

    2013: JE 1.1, MB 0.9

    I understand that many Red Sox fans have an emotional investment that detracts from their objectivity. I respect that. But when one poster asks which player I would want, I provide my honest answer. I'm fine if someone disagrees with me, but I will provide relevant data.

    For what they're worth, here are ZIPS and Steamer remainder-of-season projections for Ellsbury and Bourn (citing many traditional stats):

    ZIPS

    JE 345 PA, .276/.331/.419/.750, 19 SB, 7 HR, 1.7 WAR

    MB 438 PA, .270/.332/.370/.702, 29 SB, 4 HR, 2.4 WAR

    Steamer

    JE 400 PA, .282/.340/.422/.762, 29 SB, 8 HR, 2.6 WAR

    MB 491 PA, .264/.337/.365/.702, 30 SB, 5 HR, 2.4 WAR

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I just don't have the time or inclination to get interested in WAR , ZIPS, UZR and Steamer. The traditional stats tell you what you need to know. Nothing against "Moneyball " , but we have gotten far too carried away with analyzing every conceivable stat from every angle. When I look at the career numbers of Ellsbury and Bourn , it tells me that Ellsbury is the better of the two. When it comes to free agency, the most sensible thing for Boras and Ellsbury is to take the best long-term deal available. From past experience , there is no telling what some GM may offer. No matter how many times we hear that baseball is a business, many of us still often forget that it really is. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I like Ellsbury, who has done some spectacular things in Boston--not only the 2011 season, but leading MLB (and setting the Sox record) in steals in 2009 while leading the team in hits.    If this recent bounceback means he is going to have a very good year, it can only be good for the Sox.  I even think the likes playing in Boston and with this particular version of the Sox.  Plus now he's married and his wife lives here in Boston.  All good.

    But Boras isn't going to let him stay.  No way, no how. 

    On top of which Bradley is showing he can hit well at the AAA level (he's there for the first time ever), and Bradley does most of what Ellsbury does and does some of it (catch, throw) better and a whole lot cheaper.    Plus Vic has the three year contract and ain't leaving. 

    The Sox need at least one and preferably two good righty bats.  Traditionally, one of those is in left field.  Another should probably be at 1B or 3B or both.  Right now there are zero good righty bats, at least the kind who can hit dingers on a regular basis without striking out 10 times a week.  Napoli, Middlebrooks, and the light hitting outfield are not the answer although maybe Middlebrooks could be--jury is still out. 

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Let's see what the market says about WAR and ZIPS and Steamer. At the end of the day, HIll, as usual, comes in with some captious mundanity that begins a stupid comparision of two players who are similar except Ellsbury has better career averages plate numbers, by far.

    The point is quite simple, despite the irrelevant stat trolls. Ellsbury is going to get a large multi-year contract offer and he's not coming back on a QO to play for the Red Sox.

     



    hill55 has not said Ellsbury will not get more money than Ellsbury. 

    Since when has the amount of money one dumb GM will overpay a player have anything to do with true value or worth? You of all people saying this is proof positive of your stature as the king clown of this board.

    I happen to agree that Ellsbury will get paid more than what Bourn got. Perhaps much more. However, if he ends up at .250/.325/.375/.700 in a full season, there's a good chance he will get about the same offer.

    I'm hoping Ellsbury declines the QO and signs elsewhere. We can use the draft pick and free'd up money.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    I just don't have the time or inclination to get interested in WAR , ZIPS, UZR and Steamer. The traditional stats tell you what you need to know. Nothing against "Moneyball " , but we have gotten far too carried away with analyzing every conceivable stat from every angle. When I look at the career numbers of Ellsbury and Bourn , it tells me that Ellsbury is the better of the two. When it comes to free agency, the most sensible thing for Boras and Ellsbury is to take the best long-term deal available. From past experience , there is no telling what some GM may offer. No matter how many times we hear that baseball is a business, many of us still often forget that it really is. 



    Why does what happened in 2006 and 2007 matter as much as the last 2-4 years?

    Using traditional stats, the better projection method for determining the likely future production level of a given player is certainly using more recent numbers like the most recent 2-4 year sample size over using career numbers.

    I'm willing to cut Ellsbury some slack on his numbers during his injured seasons, but he's had 533 PAs since his return from injury. I ask you this: what makes you so certain Ellsbury will put up numbers closer to his career numbers, his past 4 years' numbers, or his past 533 PA numbers?

    Ellsbury:

    12-13  533  .269/.319/.368/.687

    10-13  933  .297/.349/.479/.828

    06-13 2808 .293/.347/.434/.781

    Bourn:

    365days: 589  .270/.348/.385/.733 (+29 in OBP and +17 in SLG)

    12-13:  820   .278/.349/.398/.747

    10-13: 1503  .288/.359/.393/.752

    06-13: 3483  .273/.339/.367/.706

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    You sound like you hope Ells has a bad year Moon. That's almost like hoping we lose game .

     


    Point out where I even hint at hoping Ellsbury has a bad year.

    I'm the biggest Sox fan in the world. I always root for all of our players to do great. I hope like H3LL Jacoby returns to 2011 form starting now.

    Just because I am a huge Sox fan, doesn't mean I have to turn my head away from reality. It doesn't mean I will say I want every one of our players over players that are better or more reliable or both.

    Sorry, but I have lost faith in Jacoby. That has nothing to do with rooting for him.

     

    Gave up on this year while we have a .600 winning pct?

     

    Huh? How is saying I'd rather have Bourn's deal than Ellsbury at the same money the next 4 years giving up on this year?

    I hope Ellsbury makes me look foolish. I just don't think he will.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    hill55 has not said Ellsbury will not get more money than Ellsbury.

    Your blather is completely incoherent.

    Hill said he doubted Ellsbury would get more than the deal Bourn received. But we'll just say that means "he never said he would get more".

     

    I guess you understood my "incoherent blather" enough to respond.

    hill did say this...

    Unless he turns things around this year, I doubt a 30-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury will top the four-year, $48 million contract Scott Boras landed last offseason for 30-year-old Michael Bourn (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million).

    ....but I guess with yoiur reading comp skills, you only see black and white and his words "I doubt" means he is certain. And, the "unless he turns things around" qualifier means zero chance.

    I noted you are a clown.

     

     

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