Will Ellsbury Stay?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    So to sum up: Ellsbury having a good year is good for Ellsbury and the Red Sox.


    -Daf.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

    So to sum up: Ellsbury having a good year is good for Ellsbury and the Red Sox.


    -Daf.



    Of course! Except wishing it so, will not make it so.

    Rooting hard for him each AB, but not expecting much is not wishing he does poorly.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

      "WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE"   ????????????????

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

     

    Don't worry, he'll revert to his average mean or mean average or whatever.


    -Daf.

     



    Of course! Except wishing it so, will not make it so.

     

    Rooting hard for him each AB, but not expecting much is not wishing he does poorly.

     




    Don't worry, he'll revert to his average mean or mean average or whatever.


    -Daf.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

     

    Don't worry, he'll revert to his average mean or mean average or whatever.


    -Daf.

     



    Of course! Except wishing it so, will not make it so.

     

    Rooting hard for him each AB, but not expecting much is not wishing he does poorly.

     




    Don't worry, he'll revert to his average mean or mean average or whatever.


    -Daf.




    Lol, wait! It was "median average". I couldn't even remember something that wacky.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    It was "median average".

    The funny part is, he still uses that term, even after so much ridicule.

    Kinda like a clown who enjoys being laughed at... not with.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    After listening to Ellsbury's post game interview today, I got the impression that he may contemplate staying in Boston.

    This is completely contrary to what I have previously thought. 

    I'm not saying this would be a good thing for the team, but with his season not going as spectacular as anticipated(albeit today's game), I wonder if he is having second thoughts about worth, appreciation, and money.  Maybe he doesn't want to gamble with the free-agent market.  Maybe he's hoping for a decent Sox offer.  He knows most Boston fans think he walks on water.  Why chance it all?

    Did anyone come away with that feeling after hearing the interiew?  And, don't forget that he really doesn't like to intrview.

    Food for thought?




    A Johnny Damon clone with a lot less power..........

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to donrd4's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    After listening to Ellsbury's post game interview today, I got the impression that he may contemplate staying in Boston.

    This is completely contrary to what I have previously thought. 

    I'm not saying this would be a good thing for the team, but with his season not going as spectacular as anticipated(albeit today's game), I wonder if he is having second thoughts about worth, appreciation, and money.  Maybe he doesn't want to gamble with the free-agent market.  Maybe he's hoping for a decent Sox offer.  He knows most Boston fans think he walks on water.  Why chance it all?

    Did anyone come away with that feeling after hearing the interiew?  And, don't forget that he really doesn't like to intrview.

    Food for thought?

    A Johnny Damon clone with a lot less power..........



    A comparison of Jacoby Ellsbury and Johnny Damon at the same age:

    JE 634 G, .294/.347/.435/.782, 16.5 WAR-BR*, 18.8 WAR-F**

    JD 1257 G, .284/.347/.425/.772, 27.7 WAR-BR, 20.1 WAR-F

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at Baseball Reference

    ** Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    Damon had an even weaker arm, and Ellsbury has more range.  Damon was a better hitter overall.  However, Ellsbury at the same age has missed most of one season, 2010, and a bunch of another, 2012, during which he never looked right,  plus 2011 was way better than any single Damon season.  My point is that I think the jury is definitely out on just who the real Jacoby Ellsbury is.  If I had to guess, I would say someone like the 2009 Ellsbury--batted .300, led Sox in hits, led MLB in steals, scored over 100 runs, single digit dingers, etc.  Lately he looks almost like the 2011 Ellsbury without the dingers, but that could be temporary. 

    I still don't see him staying, whether he has a great year or a so-so one--unless he hits 30 dingers this year, knocks in 90 or so runs, scores another 110 or so, steals 50 or more bases, etc in which case the Sox might be tempted.  But then the problem will be Boras insisting on a really big, Crawford-like contract, which to me would make no sense.  If Bradley can hit, and it sure looks as though he can, he will be in CF next year. 

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    My point is that I think the jury is definitely out on just who the real Jacoby Ellsbury is.

    The jury is in, and the Red Sox won't be "tempted" when they have a CF'er who cost nearly zero for years to come. The Red Sox don't need to repeat Crawbust-Shane-Ellsbury again and again, they need a top young slugging RH OF'er.

    Also, the trolling stooge, supra, doesn't understand an average of medians or that Santana was a terrible value to the Red Sox and Buchholz or Lester should not have been traded to get him.

     




     

    Had to save this for future ridicule.

    Now, it's "average of medians" after using "median average" dozens of times.

    There is only one median is a set of numbers, clown. Not several to average out.

    Dig deeper, clown. You may reach China soon.

     

    (Note: I never advocated trading Lester: it was Buch, Ells and Lowrie. I admitted I was wrong, but it seems to bring you joy to keep getting my position wrong.)

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    I don't mind softlaw saying the jury is in on Ellsbury because I do think Bradley is the heir apparent.  Where we disagree is about who should play CF right now, and my vote is strongly in favor of Ells.  I think Bradley is already a better overall fielder, but not nearly as good on offense, which he demonstrated last month (April) at the start of the season.  In 2007 Ellsbury played 33 regular season games with a .902 OPS and 11 postseason games with a .949 OPS.  In other words, you don't need a ton a games to show what you can do.  Ellsbury was ready in 2007.  Bradley in 2013, I'm not so sure. 

     

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Damon had an even weaker arm, and Ellsbury has more range.  Damon was a better hitter overall.  However, Ellsbury at the same age has missed most of one season, 2010, and a bunch of another, 2012, during which he never looked right,  plus 2011 was way better than any single Damon season.  My point is that I think the jury is definitely out on just who the real Jacoby Ellsbury is.  If I had to guess, I would say someone like the 2009 Ellsbury--batted .300, led Sox in hits, led MLB in steals, scored over 100 runs, single digit dingers, etc.  Lately he looks almost like the 2011 Ellsbury without the dingers, but that could be temporary. 

    I still don't see him staying, whether he has a great year or a so-so one--unless he hits 30 dingers this year, knocks in 90 or so runs, scores another 110 or so, steals 50 or more bases, etc in which case the Sox might be tempted.  But then the problem will be Boras insisting on a really big, Crawford-like contract, which to me would make no sense.  If Bradley can hit, and it sure looks as though he can, he will be in CF next year. 

     



    The jury is out for most i'll agree.

     

    However if Ells hits 30 and scores 110 runs he'll probably be harder to sign.  Neither  Boras nor Ells has said they want a Crawford like contract.  Bradley hasn't proven he can hit at the major league level yet.  We need an replacement and Vic's not it




    He wont hit 30 and 100. I would bet money on it. Pitchers saw that Ells can go deep if they give him enough FB middle in. They are taking an outside approach with Ells and allowing him to go the other way with the ball instead of leaving the park over the RF wall.

    Ells should be about 280-300BA 350-370OBP and a 420-50SLG high 700's low 800's OPS 40SB and decent splits against RH and LHP.

    These numbers are guesstimates which I believe he should be very close to by years end. Those numbers should net him about 12-16M per and 4-6 years. FA is very unpredictable and if Ells gets these numbers I can see a few teams trying to acquire his services. He will turn down a QO for sure.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Damon had an even weaker arm, and Ellsbury has more range.  Damon was a better hitter overall.  However, Ellsbury at the same age has missed most of one season, 2010, and a bunch of another, 2012, during which he never looked right,  plus 2011 was way better than any single Damon season.  My point is that I think the jury is definitely out on just who the real Jacoby Ellsbury is.  If I had to guess, I would say someone like the 2009 Ellsbury--batted .300, led Sox in hits, led MLB in steals, scored over 100 runs, single digit dingers, etc.  Lately he looks almost like the 2011 Ellsbury without the dingers, but that could be temporary. 

    I still don't see him staying, whether he has a great year or a so-so one--unless he hits 30 dingers this year, knocks in 90 or so runs, scores another 110 or so, steals 50 or more bases, etc in which case the Sox might be tempted.  But then the problem will be Boras insisting on a really big, Crawford-like contract, which to me would make no sense.  If Bradley can hit, and it sure looks as though he can, he will be in CF next year. 

     



    The jury is out for most i'll agree.

     

    However if Ells hits 30 and scores 110 runs he'll probably be harder to sign.  Neither  Boras nor Ells has said they want a Crawford like contract.  Bradley hasn't proven he can hit at the major league level yet.  We need an replacement and Vic's not it

     




    He wont hit 30 and 100. I would bet money on it. Pitchers saw that Ells can go deep if they give him enough FB middle in. They are taking an outside approach with Ells and allowing him to go the other way with the ball instead of leaving the park over the RF wall.

     

    Ells should be about 280-300BA 350-370OBP and a 420-50SLG high 700's low 800's OPS 40SB and decent splits against RH and LHP.

    These numbers are guesstimates which I believe he should be very close to by years end. Those numbers should net him about 12-16M per and 4-6 years. FA is very unpredictable and if Ells gets these numbers I can see a few teams trying to acquire his services. He will turn down a QO for sure.

     



    Your numbers for money and stats are close to mine no argument.

     

    I'll agree a few teams will want him never said otherwise   I do see us in the biding however. Unlees a trade is worked out for another outfielder.

    My question . Do we have someone on the roster that looks like they can duplicate those numbers you posted?

     




    The potential for JBJ is there, but its not a guarentee. Minus the SB, JBJ can be a 300BA 380-400OBP and mid 400's slg in MLB.

     

    Can he get those numbers this year if we trade Ells? Not too sure about that. You would be taking a big risk that he could duplicate Ellsburys production, if the numbers are indeed that high. Giving the keys to a rookie CF for a playoff is always a big risk, although Ellsbury did it in 2007.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Damon had an even weaker arm, and Ellsbury has more range.  Damon was a better hitter overall.  However, Ellsbury at the same age has missed most of one season, 2010, and a bunch of another, 2012, during which he never looked right,  plus 2011 was way better than any single Damon season.  My point is that I think the jury is definitely out on just who the real Jacoby Ellsbury is.  If I had to guess, I would say someone like the 2009 Ellsbury--batted .300, led Sox in hits, led MLB in steals, scored over 100 runs, single digit dingers, etc.  Lately he looks almost like the 2011 Ellsbury without the dingers, but that could be temporary. 

    I still don't see him staying, whether he has a great year or a so-so one--unless he hits 30 dingers this year, knocks in 90 or so runs, scores another 110 or so, steals 50 or more bases, etc in which case the Sox might be tempted.  But then the problem will be Boras insisting on a really big, Crawford-like contract, which to me would make no sense.  If Bradley can hit, and it sure looks as though he can, he will be in CF next year. 

     



    The jury is out for most i'll agree.

     

    However if Ells hits 30 and scores 110 runs he'll probably be harder to sign.  Neither  Boras nor Ells has said they want a Crawford like contract.  Bradley hasn't proven he can hit at the major league level yet.  We need an replacement and Vic's not it



    That 2011 season was better  because ELLS got a vist from the Dominican doctor if you know what i mean? Much weaker now... Is there a Dominican doctor in the house!!!!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    Can he get those numbers this year if we trade Ells? Not too sure about that. You would be taking a big risk that he could duplicate Ellsburys production, if the numbers are indeed that high. Giving the keys to a rookie CF for a playoff is always a big risk, although Ellsbury did it in 2007

    I like Bradley a lot but counting on him to put up numbers like we discussed is too much to count on. 

    I'm not sure there is a good  solution for Ells if we keep winning. and he plays well.  Being first in the division is a surprise to the fans and management.  Ells having a decent year and us out of the playoff race begs for him to be traded.  Mid July record will be the final determation.

     

     

     




    This is pretty much what Ive been saying with guys like Drew, Ells and salty, the names most mentioned on this board that we should trade.

     

    I dont think if we have a legit shot at the playoffs we should be thinking of disrupting the most important positions on the field. C, SS and CF. If those guys are doing good, then theres no reason to trade them, other than the notion of trying to get something for them before they hit FA after the year. Thats not worth taking the chance on unproven kids.

    I dont think handing they keys to rookies and getting rid of exp. MLB players who are doing good is a smart formula to keep winning. Especially at those positions. I like all those prospects (JBJ, IGGY, Lavarnway) but Im not confident they will make us a better team this year. We have good chemistry going. Ells is heating up and Drew has been doing great offensively since the end of April. Salty is having his best offensive year so far as well.

    People will say that we should "sell high" on them while we can. What do you think you will get back for 3, 2 month rentals? Will the return make you better? Will you keep the same winning chemistry and keep you in contention? Sorry, but if were in contention its foolish to break that up to get a couple prospects so some here can feel good about the fact that we at least got something for those players for the future.

    if we are pretty much out of it, then yeah, clean house.

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    There is only one median is a set of numbers

    You've been the big stooge on this for years. A series of medians from a set sample size is averaged, you big dope!

     



    Saving Master Softlaw's definition for posterity.

    How fitting, from posterior to posterity!

    Of course, now all we need is a reason one would ever average median(s). Or where one would ever find more than one median in a "set sample size" to average.

    -Daf.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Will Ellsbury Stay?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    There is only one median is a set of numbers

    You've been the big stooge on this for years. A series of medians from a set sample size is averaged, you big dope!



    Classic.

     

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