Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

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    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed : And since the All Star Break, not adjusting for ballpark or qualiity of lineup, for 22-year-old Jesus Montero and 23-year-old Will Middlebrooks: JM 17 G, 65 PA, .323/.400./477/.877 WM 18 G, 69 PA, .304/.314/.478/.793
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Dr. Hill this kind of small sample reply is beneath even Georom or Andrewbytch.  JM's 2012 H/R splits are what you should have posted. 

    As you know from the FG article's comments the .300 BABIP projection in the article is suspect.    If he can maintain a .330 or above BABIP and .180 or above ISO he will be a very valuable player.

    WM  BABIP
    09    .372
    10    .348
    11    .363 (AA)
    12    ~.345

    (( " I just figured his xBABIP again, and right now it’s .344. I know xBABIP isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty clear that he could be expected to maintain a fairly high BABIP. " ))  (KyleL from comments)
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed : Dr. Hill this kind of small sample reply is beneath even Georom or Andrewbytch.  JM's 2012 H/R splits are what you should have posted.  As you know from the FG article's comments the .300 BABIP projection in the article is suspect.    If he can maintain a .330 or above BABIP and .180 or above ISO he will be a very valuable player. WM  BABIP 09    .372 10    .348 11    .363 (AA) 12    ~.345 (( " I just figured his xBABIP again, and right now it’s .344. I know xBABIP isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty clear that he could be expected to maintain a fairly high BABIP. " ))  (KyleL from comments)
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]
    After you boldfaced Jesus Montero's OPS against righthanded pitching, I took that as an invitation to use small samples.

    Laughing

    I like Will Middlebrooks' home/away splits, but I still wonder how Middlebrooks would fare playing half of his games at Safeco Field as opposed to Fenway Park.

    Using your preferred larger sample, here are the 2012 hitting lines on the road for the Red Sox and the Mariners:

    BOS 49 G, 1867 PA, .253/.308/.407/.715, 209 R (4.27rpg), 57 HR, 195 RBI
    SEA 53 G, 2109 PA, .255/.306/.415/.721, 258 R (4.87rpg), 61 HR, 245 RBI

    As always, Tom, thank you for your contribution to the discussion.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed : After you boldfaced Jesus Montero's OPS against righthanded pitching, I took that as an invitation to use small samples. I like Will Middlebrooks' home/away splits, but I still wonder how Middlebrooks would fare playing half of his games at Safeco Field as opposed to Fenway Park. Using your preferred larger sample, here are the 2012 hitting lines on the road for the Red Sox and the Mariners: BOS 49 G, 1867 PA, .253/.308/.407/.715, 209 R (4.27rpg), 57 HR, 195 RBI SEA 53 G, 2109 PA, .255/.306/.415/.721, 258 R (4.87rpg), 61 HR, 245 RBI As always, Tom, thank you for your contribution to the discussion.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Dr. Hill, considering that RHP makes up 70% of AL pitching and ~70% of JM's ABs,  I don't think you can play the small sample card on that one.

    What is your opinion that every HR this year of WM would be out in Safeco and all but one of JE's from 2011?

    I will admit the Mariner's road numbers are a surprise, but I think JM not hitting RHP is just as big a worry as WM's lack of BBs.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    WM has been having a nice season and I think as he gets more experience he will walk more and strike out less which will be necessary if he wants to consistently perform at his current level.

    Seriously though the comparisons going on in here are pretty bad.  Vlad?  Pedey? Nomar?  All of those guys might have been pretty free swingers, but they still walk more than WM is now and they strike out a LOT less because they make a lot more contact than WM does.

    Like I said WM is still young and lots of guys have improved their K/BB ratios as they have gotten more experience, but there is no way he is going to perform at this level long term if that facet of his game doesn't improve.
     
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    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In Response to Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed:
    [QUOTE]FanGraphs columnist Jack Moore analyzed the plate discipline of Red Sox rookie Will Middlebrooks: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/can-middlebrooks-excel-without-discipline/ WARNING: This reading is not appropriate for readers who are averse to sabermetrics
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Looking at his age and the fact most experts didn't know if Middy would be ready for the bigs for another year or two give him time to adjust.  I think he will be fine after learning the pitchers a bit better and doing his homework.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed : Looking at his age and the fact most experts didn't know if Middy would be ready for the bigs for another year or two give him time to adjust.  I think he will be fine after learning the pitchers a bit better and doing his homework.
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]
    The flip side is that pitchers will learn Will Middlebrooks better after doing their homework.
     
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    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    Thank you. Mr. Negative.
    Why not just send him to Pawtucket, because you, Mr. "He hurts my head", and Fancraps says Middlebrooks sucks.
    Sorry, your Saberbaloney hero, the Greek (but really Romanian Jewish) God of Walks is gone.
    Oh, and he's hitting .183 for the last couple of weeks.
     
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    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed : The flip side is that pitchers will learn Will Middlebrooks better after doing their homework.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    I would say 1. this is an ongoing loop that happens through players' careers, if they are going to be succesful:  they adjust, opposition adjusts to the adjustments, players re-adjusts to the re-adjustments.

    2. The first wave already happened.  the pitchers did their homework, realized they could just throw the kid a steady diet of breaking stuff.  He regressed.  Then he tweaked his approach, adjusting to their adjustments.  Now he's white on rice on that stuff.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed:
    [QUOTE]Thank you. Mr. Negative. Why not just send him to Pawtucket, because you, Mr. "He hurts my head", and Fancraps says Middlebrooks sucks. Sorry, your Saberbaloney hero, the Greek (but really Romanian Jewish) God of Walks is gone. Oh, and he's hitting .183 for the last couple of weeks.
    Posted by rightymclefty[/QUOTE]
    I hope Will Middlebrooks has a long productive MLB career as the rookie continues to exceed my expectations.
     
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    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    In response to "Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed : WM .259/.294/.424/.718 KY .248/.362/.456/.818 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7002&position=3B http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1935&position=1B/3B Posted by hill55[/QUOTE] Still think those numbers are going to hold?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    Middlebrooks is above almost all of our projections but one thing does stick out. His BAPIP is higher than normal, perhaps because he generally hits the ball harder than the average player. The guy does appear to make good contact when he does hit it. Ergo a higher BAPIP which has always stood out for him.

    We kind of know at this point that he can hit. Indications are he will walk more as he continues to do more damage. Also, a little more lineup protection would help him ( Salty? ). If I had to trade between Jesus Montero and Middlebrooks I wouldn't hesitate to take Middlebrooks. I think he is a terrific 3rd base prospect going forward. 
     
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    Re: Will Middlebrooks' plate discipline analyzed

    JD Drew had better plate discipline as well.
     

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