Re: Would you trade Bogaerts today.....
posted at 1/24/2014 7:25 AM EST
OP is completely wrong headed. Not only are there no guarantees in baseball, but who would want them? That is the great lesson of being a Sox fan and especially a Sox fan in 2004 and 2013 (2007 came close to being guaranteed).
Last year o/a August 1 Ben Cherington made just such a deal with the devil. He traded everyone's favorite Iglesias in a three way trade to get nobody's favorite Peavy, and he did it to give the Sox a better chance at the playoffs. The playoffs, not the WS. Many of us raged, raged against the night, but in the end it was probably the right move, not because Peavy was such a great acquisition (although he did help get the Sox to the playoffs and then did very little in them), but because the Sox had been out of the playoffs for too long, because the 2012 season was a disaster after the 2011 disaster of a season, and because the Sox were in fact well fixed in the SS department with Drew backed up by Bogaerts.
I can still remember some of those big moments from last year's playoffs precisely because to me the outcome was so improbable. I wrongly feared the Rays, but rightly feared the Tigers, who did indeed have superb pitching that required some great Sox pitching and unreal clutch hitting. I say again, guaranteed outcomes are completely anti-baseball. It's the surprises that mean everything. My wife is sick of me telling her I can still recite all 25 members of last year's playoff roster.
One more point about the obtuseness of the OP. Keeping Bogaerts is a very good hedge against not winning another WS in 2014. That's right. The pitching, which was absolutely the best in MLB in the playoffs (you can look it up), is all coming back unless someone gets traded to fill another hole. And the only substantial lineup player not returning is Ellsbury. One of the Globe sportswriters--Abraham or Finn--recently pointed out that a full season of Bogaerts just might make up for Bradley replacing Ells in the lineup. Losing Saltalamachhia was/is probably an improvement--for the pitching anyway. And I haven't made up my mind about Drew. I like his defense and his lefty bat and Bogaerts at 3B, and I'm not so sure I like Middlebrooks at 3B (and Bogaerts at SS).
Back to the Iglesias deal. In the end, it did make good business sense to trade him to have a better chance at finally getting back to the playoffs, especially after the 2012 disaster and even more after ending the sold out home games streak. But I suspect in the end the Tigers got the better deal because Iglesias is likely to give their fans many years of enjoyment. For exactly that reason if no other, the Sox cannot, cannot let Bogaerts go.