Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I ask this because the Dbacks really need, and are looking for a Pitcher like Lackey to solidify their rotation. At an average of 8.5M a year for 2 years, hes a great bargain. He would do well at Chase Field too.

    The Dbacks have loads of good young pitching, as well as position players, and are willing to deal some of their prospects for pitching. Im sure we could always add to the deal, but I think the Sox and Az match up good. Just a thought.

    are you talking position or pitching prospects??(or a combo) 


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    Selling high on Lackey is not necessarily a bad idea.   But using him to get a bunch of minor league talent is.  The future is already pretty bright.  Now lets see this team build for the present...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to patrickford's comment:

    I had thought people came to like this team. Now I see  a lot of fans who want to get rid of talent and bring in a bunch of B-list pieces. 
    The rational seems to be that the talent is too expensive. Or if the talent is not expensive it should be traded away because affordable contracts are easy to move. 



    I think the situation is far more complicated.

    The 1st question you need to ask is whether or not we want to spend $12M on a #6 SP.

    I think when the answer comes back 'no', then the next question is 'who to trade'.

    If someone like Bob says dump Dempster because he wants to make another run at a WS with Lackey in 2014, I completely understand it.

    But you can't dismiss the people that want to make the best deal available.  I don't want to trade Lackey either, but if someone offers us a Myers/Odorizzi deal like KC did for Shields, or the Syndergaard/D'Arnaud deal like TO did for Dickey, I think you have to think about the long term effects.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    At this point, I am glad that John Lackey is signed up to pitch for the Red Sox.



    It is rather amazing that last year, many posters wanted Lackey dumped at all costs.  Now he is the no-trade list.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    Im just throwing suggestions out there. Im not so sure they would even consider letting Lackey go unless its a very good return. They dont HAVE to move him and realistically have a better shot with him. But coming off a great return (comeback player of the year IMO) Hes a perfect sell high candidate.

    Just to expound on that a little, I have to ask two questions-

    1-How good is Lackey?  Since Lackey broke in in 2002, he has had a better ERA than last year only twice.  In the three years prior to his injury year, he still only had an ERA of 4.02.  Would anyone be shocked to see him go back to very respectable 4.02?  At age 35?

    2-How good are the Red Sox?  The pessimists thought we were .500 at best, while the realists had us pegged as a 89-92 win team.  We replace Ellsbury with JBJ and Drew with Bogaerts.  We should theoretically be worse than last year.

    I think we probably have the best talent in the leage, but I could easily see us winning 90, being a WC, and going out in the WC or ALDS round.  I don't necessarily want to trade off 6 years of being a better team for one year of being a better team.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    It is rather amazing that last year, many posters wanted Lackey dumped at all costs.  Now he is the no-trade list.



    True Joe, although there was no way of knowing how much he would benefit from the surgery.  I was certainly hopeful about it, but I'd say he went beyond my most optimistic projections.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Im just throwing suggestions out there. Im not so sure they would even consider letting Lackey go unless its a very good return. They dont HAVE to move him and realistically have a better shot with him. But coming off a great return (comeback player of the year IMO) Hes a perfect sell high candidate.

    Just to expound on that a little, I have to ask two questions-

    1-How good is Lackey?  Since Lackey broke in in 2002, he has had a better ERA than last year only twice.  In the three years prior to his injury year, he still only had an ERA of 4.02.  Would anyone be shocked to see him go back to very respectable 4.02?  At age 35?

    2-How good are the Red Sox?  The pessimists thought we were .500 at best, while the realists had us pegged as a 89-92 win team.  We replace Ellsbury with JBJ and Drew with Bogaerts.  We should theoretically be worse than last year.

    I think we probably have the best talent in the leage, but I could easily see us winning 90, being a WC, and going out in the WC or ALDS round.  I don't necessarily want to trade off 6 years of being a better team for one year of being a better team.



    1) I think that with the TJ surgery we're looking at a new John Lackey.  To answer the question, I would be surprised to see him with an ERA >4 in 2014. But if the upside of keeping him is an ERA ~3.00 and the dowside is an ERA ~4.00 I'd want to see him prove that he can't do it before I trade him. Even if he boombs in 2014 and we trade him after the 2014 season that $500,000 contract is going to look pretty good to some team(s). 

    2a)  I agree that with JBJ in place of Ellsbury the team is weaker, but I'm still not sold on the idea that Ells is leaving.  IMHO the longer this drags on the better the chance of the Sox signing him.

    2b)  I'm not convinced that Bogarts is a big downgrade over Drew.  I see the team losing a bit defensively but picking up at least an equal amount offensively.  And yes, I know what Drew's offensive numbers were last year.  (.253-13-92/.777OPS.)  Bogarts can flat-out hit.

    I see the determining factor for the Sox next year is whether they can re-sign Ellsbury.  IMO with him they'll contend for the AL East title.  Without him they may struggle for a WC spot.  If the Sox are only a WC team next year it will at least let us identify the weak spots and we can fill those for 2015, carrying forward a SS with a year's experience.

    But we need the pitching to do it, and Lackey is part of that rotation.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    It is rather amazing that last year, many posters wanted Lackey dumped at all costs.  Now he is the no-trade list.



    True Joe, although there was no way of knowing how much he would benefit from the surgery.  I was certainly hopeful about it, but I'd say he went beyond my most optimistic projections.

    I didn't say he shouldn't be traded, I just said there is no way I include any other pieces in any trade concerning Lackey, and I might be greedy enough to ask for more than just prospects.


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    With a strong farm and 2-3 added draft choices coming our way this spring, I don't think we should be looking to deconstruct our roster any more than it already will be with the loss of 4 big names.

    I might trade Peavy for some good prospects, but then I'd probably look to deal some youth to fill a much needed slot on the big club.



    Hi Moon, 

    I'm with you. It seemed right after the WS a few posts appeared about trades, some proposing Lackey. Good pitching is tough to find and to trade Lackey after a tough year with wins and losses for Lackey because of poor run support but none the less a very solid year I wouldn't trade Lackey. And no one is going to give up a proven young pitcher for an older proven pitcher and prospects are only just that, prospects. We've enough young prospects of our own. I'm not into blowing up last years roster for prospects. You want send Peavy and or Dempster in  trade.

    Hetch 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to jete02fan's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I ask this because the Dbacks really need, and are looking for a Pitcher like Lackey to solidify their rotation. At an average of 8.5M a year for 2 years, hes a great bargain. He would do well at Chase Field too.

    The Dbacks have loads of good young pitching, as well as position players, and are willing to deal some of their prospects for pitching. Im sure we could always add to the deal, but I think the Sox and Az match up good. Just a thought.

    are you talking position or pitching prospects??(or a combo) 





    I think there would be more pieces to tha trade than just lackey. Az has some nice pitchers and a 3b, Davidson, that could also be a very good fit for 1b.

    Im just throwing something out there and see what people think. Its worth the discussion IMO. Im not saying to trade everyone, Just bringing up a topic for discussion...

    Depending on the return, I dont think there will be a huge dropoff, if much at all, with lackey gone and go with Peavy and Dempster while adding a 1b for 6 years and maybe another young hurler. They have to kids who look to be solid closers too with Barrett and Stites.

    Lackey is still a 4ish ERA pitcher that I can see having a 14-11 record. Thats good, but hes not untradable. Especially if were talking about possibly improving 2 positions for 6 years. Im not expecting a repeat, although I expect they will always be competetive. If you get into the PO, anything can happen from there.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?


    Lackey has always averaged and ERA 3.00+ except for his pre surgery year. I would trade Peavy for talent before giving Lackey up. Not the greatest personality but a darn good pitcher.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    At this point, I am glad that John Lackey is signed up to pitch for the Red Sox.



    It is rather amazing that last year, many posters wanted Lackey dumped at all costs.  Now he is the no-trade list.




      Just for the record,  I was quite high on John Lackey's prospects coming into the 2013 season.  You are correct, that I was in the minority at that time.  All the same, why wouldn't many of the posters who were down on Lackey at that time change their minds?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    At this point, I am glad that John Lackey is signed up to pitch for the Red Sox.



    It is rather amazing that last year, many posters wanted Lackey dumped at all costs.  Now he is the no-trade list.




      Just for the record,  I was quite high on John Lackey's prospects coming into the 2013 season.  You are correct, that I was in the minority at that time.  All the same, why wouldn't many of the posters who were down on Lackey at that time change their minds?



    I've changed my mind 3-4 times on Lackey... 

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from splendidsplinterteddyballgame. Show splendidsplinterteddyballgame's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to Iceman4's comment:


    Lackey has always averaged and ERA 3.00+ except for his pre surgery year. I would trade Peavy for talent before giving Lackey up. Not the greatest personality but a darn good pitcher.



    Peavy will not bring much in the way of great prospects.  He is average,at best, at this stage of his career.  Sox should have made Salty a qualifying offer to get a dreat pick.  He will get a two or three year deal somewhere.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    At this point, I am glad that John Lackey is signed up to pitch for the Red Sox.



    It is rather amazing that last year, many posters wanted Lackey dumped at all costs.  Now he is the no-trade list.




      Just for the record,  I was quite high on John Lackey's prospects coming into the 2013 season.  You are correct, that I was in the minority at that time.  All the same, why wouldn't many of the posters who were down on Lackey at that time change their minds?



    I've changed my mind 3-4 times on Lackey... 

     




    I was never overly impressed with Lackey. He is a 4ish ERA guy who can eat some innings and is overpaid. I was thrilled that he finally earned some of his $$ last year, but I believe he pitched about the best hes going to here. He had a 3.52ERA and I expect that to go up in 2014.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    I don't know about Lackey to AZ specifically (don't know enough about their prospects, and he would not be my first choice to trade this offseason), but just because we already have an excellent farm system doesn't mean we shouldn't consider adding to an area of long-term need (say, first base or a power-hitting corner OF) by dealing from an area of excess (starting pitching) if that opportunity arose...nor would such a move mean blowing up the team or not competing in 2014, as some have sugggested.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    I don't know about Lackey to AZ specifically (don't know enough about their prospects, and he would not be my first choice to trade this offseason), but just because we already have an excellent farm system doesn't mean we shouldn't consider adding to an area of long-term need (say, first base or a power-hitting corner OF) by dealing from an area of excess (starting pitching) if that opportunity arose...nor would such a move mean blowing up the team or not competing in 2014, as some have sugggested.

    I agree on the corner OF'er and 1b. I know Az has a couple 3b/1b types. Davidson is their #2 and hes mainly a 3b, but scouts have mentioned 1b as well. No corner OF'er except on the big club. LOTS of pitching though.

    Some here thought we wouldnt be competetive this year with the moves Ben made. I know a bunch of teams have inquired abpout the Sox pitching, and Im willing to bet Lackey's name was metioned a lot. If it makes sense, then they should 100% do it. I think they will be plenty competetive without either Lackey, Peavy or Dempster. The return has to be smart and worth it though...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    Of course it all depends on what the team would get in return, but I personally would be hesitant to trade any of our starting pitchers for prospects.  With injury and underperformances, what seems like a surplus of SP can very quickly turn into an area of need.  It seems like trading SP always comes back to haunt you somehow.

    Depth, depth, depth.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    Of course it all depends on what the team would get in return, but I personally would be hesitant to trade any of our starting pitchers for prospects.  With injury and underperformances, what seems like a surplus of SP can very quickly turn into an area of need.  It seems like trading SP always comes back to haunt you somehow.

    Depth, depth, depth.

     




    Yes exactly. The return has to be worth it. Without a doubt.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    Not a fan of trades. The best way to go is to lock up your core talent, develop your prospects in the farm system, then explore the free agent market, both MLB and foreign. Then , the occasional trade to fill a need or dump dead wood. Don't trade Lackey just because you think we have a glut of starters. Only trade him if we get something good in return. " Young prospects " is kind of vague. 

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Not a fan of trades. The best way to go is to lock up your core talent, develop your prospects in the farm system, then explore the free agent market, both MLB and foreign. Then , the occasional trade to fill a need or dump dead wood. Don't trade Lackey just because you think we have a glut of starters. Only trade him if we get something good in return. " Young prospects " is kind of vague. 

     




    Thats not my reasoning...

    Ive also named a few names from Az and KC.

    My main point is hes worth the most in a trade between the over 30 group, and hes a perfect "sell high" candidate. To me, hes still about a 4ERA (3.52 this year) guy who pitched above his head this year.

    We 100% agree that the return HAS to make sense to let a horse like lackey go.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Ive also named a few names from Az and KC.

    My main point is hes worth the most in a trade between the over 30 group, and hes a perfect "sell high" candidate. To me, hes still about a 4ERA (3.52 this year) guy who pitched above his head this year.



    Lackey isn't really a 4 ERA guy and he didn't pitch over his head this year.  His last 5 seasons with the Angels, his highest ERA was 3.83.  His 2013 season was in line with those last 5 seasons with the Angels.  His terrible 2011 numbers were obviously a result of being injured.   

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to jete02fan's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I ask this because the Dbacks really need, and are looking for a Pitcher like Lackey to solidify their rotation. At an average of 8.5M a year for 2 years, hes a great bargain. He would do well at Chase Field too.

    The Dbacks have loads of good young pitching, as well as position players, and are willing to deal some of their prospects for pitching. Im sure we could always add to the deal, but I think the Sox and Az match up good. Just a thought.

     

    are you talking position or pitching prospects??(or a combo) 

    I think there would be more pieces to tha trade than just lackey. Az has some nice pitchers and a 3b, Davidson, that could also be a very good fit for 1b.

    Im just throwing something out there and see what people think. Its worth the discussion IMO. Im not saying to trade everyone, Just bringing up a topic for discussion...

    Depending on the return, I dont think there will be a huge dropoff, if much at all, with lackey gone and go with Peavy and Dempster while adding a 1b for 6 years and maybe another young hurler. They have to kids who look to be solid closers too with Barrett and Stites.

    Lackey is still a 4ish ERA pitcher that I can see having a 14-11 record. Thats good, but hes not untradable. Especially if were talking about possibly improving 2 positions for 6 years. Im not expecting a repeat, although I expect they will always be competetive. If you get into the PO, anything can happen from there.



    South, 

    Dempster is at the end, not really reliable for much else than a 6th starter if needed to maybe a bench warmer. With Lackey another year removed from surgery I see another year like this one, low to mid-3.50 era, a solid reliable starter. Peavy a semi-reliable 5th man. I think you're underestimating Lackey. With what he showed us in the post season, World Series I think he has possibilities of 15-16 wins with some run support. His won-loss record in 2013 would have been more like 15-10 with some support this year. 

    Just my thoughts. Will be interesting to see who comes closer in prediction if one of us remembers. 

    Cheers, 

    Hetch

     
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