Re: Would you trade Lackey for younger prospects ?
posted at 11/29/2013 11:15 AM EST
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
Im just throwing suggestions out there. Im not so sure they would even consider letting Lackey go unless its a very good return. They dont HAVE to move him and realistically have a better shot with him. But coming off a great return (comeback player of the year IMO) Hes a perfect sell high candidate.
Just to expound on that a little, I have to ask two questions-
1-How good is Lackey? Since Lackey broke in in 2002, he has had a better ERA than last year only twice. In the three years prior to his injury year, he still only had an ERA of 4.02. Would anyone be shocked to see him go back to very respectable 4.02? At age 35?
2-How good are the Red Sox? The pessimists thought we were .500 at best, while the realists had us pegged as a 89-92 win team. We replace Ellsbury with JBJ and Drew with Bogaerts. We should theoretically be worse than last year.
I think we probably have the best talent in the leage, but I could easily see us winning 90, being a WC, and going out in the WC or ALDS round. I don't necessarily want to trade off 6 years of being a better team for one year of being a better team.
1) I think that with the TJ surgery we're looking at a new John Lackey. To answer the question, I would be surprised to see him with an ERA >4 in 2014. But if the upside of keeping him is an ERA ~3.00 and the dowside is an ERA ~4.00 I'd want to see him prove that he can't do it before I trade him. Even if he boombs in 2014 and we trade him after the 2014 season that $500,000 contract is going to look pretty good to some team(s).
2a) I agree that with JBJ in place of Ellsbury the team is weaker, but I'm still not sold on the idea that Ells is leaving. IMHO the longer this drags on the better the chance of the Sox signing him.
2b) I'm not convinced that Bogarts is a big downgrade over Drew. I see the team losing a bit defensively but picking up at least an equal amount offensively. And yes, I know what Drew's offensive numbers were last year. (.253-13-92/.777OPS.) Bogarts can flat-out hit.
I see the determining factor for the Sox next year is whether they can re-sign Ellsbury. IMO with him they'll contend for the AL East title. Without him they may struggle for a WC spot. If the Sox are only a WC team next year it will at least let us identify the weak spots and we can fill those for 2015, carrying forward a SS with a year's experience.
But we need the pitching to do it, and Lackey is part of that rotation.