Re: yanks will not go away
posted at 8/4/2011 10:25 AM EDT
In Response to Re: yanks will not go away
[QUOTE]Yankees are surviving on smoke and mirror towards career high ERA from Colon and Garcia. Burnett is erratic, Hughes finally had a good start, and Nova has been erratic but better lately. It will come down to starting pitching, were Lester and Beckett is better than any 2 Yankee starters. But during the division race, the other starters are more important. So far, Yankees are getting the best of the 3, 4, 5 and spot/sub starter, but Bedard is the wild card. Bedard could be good, wilt to the DL again, or struggle to provide average start innings quality. If Bedard is good, barring a DL to an everyday player, I think the Red Sox win the division. If not, it will go down to the final few games of the season. Buch returning fresh, late, or for the playoffs is another needle changer. We'll see, but it's something the Yankees don't have as a possibility. Beckett Sabathia no blood Lester Burnett Red Sox Bedard? Hughes ? Lackey Colon Yankees for now Colon might breakdown Wakefield Garcia Yankees period Miller Nova Yankees for now Pretty clear that the bottom of the rotation is where the Yankees have been superior to Red Sox. Lackey is an embarrassment, more than Burnett, and Wakefield is proof that going with one year deals on other veterans or using young talent is the way to go. Bedard is the key to the division battle, as I see it. If he's good, that is the tipping point. If he isn't, the Red Sox offense is good enough to still take the race to the last few days but the Yankees have a razor thin probability advantage. Let's hope we get the April, May and June Bedard, and not the one start post DL meltdown Bedard. 5 innings and change v. Indians and 1 or 2 runs would be a good sign. My choice from a no value pitching market was to try and deal for Kemp, extend him for the long term, and simply wear down the best pitchers with Kemp, Pedroia and Youk, from the right side, and AGon and Ortiz from the lefty side, applying a powerful 2 sided vise force. Ortiz has been a gift from heaven v. LHP, but another slugging RH bat would have created a better than 2004 murders row that would beat any pitching staff almost 70% of the games played. Bedard might work, but it's more of a gamble. Hopefully, it works, but it's dubious.
Posted by softylaw[/QUOTE]
i like where you are going with this. if one lines the pitchers up as they have performed this year it would be (war), advantage
(3.4) v. sabathia (5.9)
sabathia is on an historic run right now. putting up performances that rival any from the best pitchers in the game over the past few decades. the one thing he has never been able to do is beat the red sox consistantly. this year especially, in three starts he is 0-3 with a 6.16 era. all of those loses are against beckett. there is plenty of time for cc to turn it around and put up two great starts against us, but until he does the advantage is definately josh beckett and the red sox.lester
(2.0) v. garcia (2.3)
lester is clearly superior to burnett. if garcia is the #2, which he should be, lester has beaten him head to head twice this year. garcia is pitching great while lester is having a down year by his standards mainly due to hr/fb rate 4% higher than average.
bedard (1.4) v. colon
no sure way to project bedard right now. he has had great success in the al east, posting +5 war seasons in '06 and '07 as an oriole-- that is ace stuff and if he pitches like that the edge is clear. give colon the edge because of the year he is having.lackey
(.8) v. burnett (1.0)
lackey beat the yanks in their only matchup thus far, although that was a 9-6 affair where lackey gave up at least one run per inning. still, it was the first win of the season. lackey is better than burnett. all of lackey's peripherals are better than burnett's except k/9 and babip. the red sox pounded burnett for 7 er in 5.2 innings in yankee stadium in their only meeting. burnett was 6-1 at the time.
wakefield (.4) v. nova
nova is a decent pitcher who induces a lot of ground balls. we have not faced him this year.
best case scenario for the red sox is that buchholz comes back healthy for the stretch run, bedard pitches well, and lackey continues to improve which would give us the better rotation.
worst case is buchholz is done for the year, beckett regresses, bedard is hurt, lackey struggles.
best case for the yankees is cc is able to slay the red sox dragon, garcia continues to pitch well, colon stays healthy (resisting the stem cell dig...), burnett stabilizes, nova keeps it up.
worst case is cc goes down, colon gets hurt, garcia stabilizes and burnett continues his downward spiral (7 er in 5 ip again last night.)
this is why this rivalry is so great!