Yes I have too much time on my hands

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Yes I have too much time on my hands

    The Free Agent pitchers – my analysis.

     

    In reviewing the remaining FA pitchers, I ran some number over the past 3 years that essentially try to remove any "luck" or defense from the equation by normalizing BABIP and using the results to calculate ERA. I cannot remove effects of ballpark or league. Yet. I do have two very similar methods of doing this, and as long as I compare everyone the same method, the numbers are OK for comparison. In this respect, I like these number better than FIP, which is nothing more than a function of hits, walks and strikeouts. This process is still a work in progress.

     

    Anabal Sanchez - 3.76ERA 1.35WHIP

    Francisco Liriano - 4.00ERA 1.46WHIP

    Shaun Marcum - 4.23ERA, 1.38WHIP

    Ryan Dempster - 4.34ERA, 1.46WHIP

    Edwin Jackson - 4.37ERA, 1.40WHIP

    Kyle Lohse - 4.40ERA, 1.45WHIP

    Chris Capuano - 4.51ERA, 1.40WHIP (Technically not a free agent, but reportedly available.)

    Jeff Karstens - 4.81ERA, 1.46WHIP

     

    Sanchez is clearly the best. It is worth noting his FB/GB/LD splits are nearly identical to Dempster’s over the past 3 years as well as his K percentage, and the major factor seems to be his significantly lower home run rate, which has to at least be partially attributable to the ballparks each called home the past 3 years.  Dempster's BB% is also higher than Sanchez, which makes sense.  Dempster is a nibbler.  Sanchez is a bulldog.

    Liriano has a serious walk issue, but is the strikeout king (23%), just ahead of Dempster (21.9%) and Sanchez (21.1%). Liriano is at a disadvantage here, too, as he has thrown all his innings in the AL, unlike everyone else in this analysis.

    Liriano is also the ground ball king (49%) over these year. Edwin Jackson (46.1%), Anibal Sanchez (45.3%) and Ryan Dempster (45.1%) follow suit. Again, only one of these guys spent all his time in the AL.

    Trade candidate Chris Capuano is the most home run prone (11.5% HR/FB). Ryan Dempster (11.1%) and Jeff Karstens (11%) are right behind. With Dempster, there is a likely ballpark contributor, but Capuano really, really lacks this excuse. Kyle Lohse (7.6%) and Sanchez (8.3%) were the best at not allowing home runs. How Lohse allowed so few and still had such a lofty simulated ERA shows he might be the luckiest pitcher of the bunch and is probably worth avoiding, especially for what he is undoubtedly seeking. Lohse also surrenders the most line drives (22%!!), and he and Jackson (20.1%) are the only pitchers with a rate over 20. Capuano (18.4%), Liriano (18.7%) and Marcum (18.8%) surrender the fewest.

    Marcum is the most flyball prone (42%)which might not be so great at Fenway. His lead in this department is fairly significant as second highest was Karstens (37.2%). However, Marcum did keep his home run rate a respectable 9.9% and spent these years in two very homer prone stadiums. (Although the SkyDome does have a historically alleged caveat.) Liriano (32.3%) and Jackson (32.9%) allowed the fewest flyballs.

    All things considered, Liriano looks like the smartest candidate of the bunch. He keeps the ball in the park, and, more important, keeps it on the ground or out of play altogether, and might not require a ridiculous deal, which is an apparent factor. Sanchez is the best of the bunch, but even though he is the youngest, he has been allowing all his splits to be nearly identical to Dempster, who is 7 years older. This does not bode well for him as he ages. Marcum is a good option with a scary dark side, but might be the second best candidate, especially if he takes a short deal. Dempster figures to be the Lesser Sanchez, although he is the oldest pitcher here and could age rapidly. Jackson is just not as good as the others, but is very durable and obviously quite easy to trade. Lohse and Capuano are disasters waiting to happen. And no one even knows how Karstens got into the analysis in the first place.

    So really my thoughts are 1. Liriano 2. Marcum 3.Sanchez 4. Dempster 5.None of the above.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Excellent and informative post notin. It should be required reading for Ben.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Someone as knowledgeable as yourself should know to stay away from Liriano, unless I've missed something; I myself would prefer Sanchez & Capuano, who, in both cases, injuries aside, seemed to have improved. Also, Capuano is nee-near impossible to steal on. Marcum & Karstens are good as well.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Excellent post notin, do you have your numbers on Joe Saunders?

    Pavano (I heard the Sox were interested: I am not.)?

    Jo. Sanchez?

    Villanueva?

    Your thoughts on these 3 as pitching depth signings would be greatly appreciated.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    excellent info. i would also like you to factor in IP and IP/start if you haven't already. i think above all, we need a guy who will make 30 starts and 200+ innings.

    gotta say though, my eyes are open on liriano now, didn't think much of him before but i never examined the stats. nice work

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Sanchez really finished last year strongly.  In his last 11 starts including 3 postseason starts, he had a 2.05 ERA in 74+ innings.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from boborielly224. Show boborielly224's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    In response to notin's comment:

    The Free Agent pitchers – my analysis.

     

    In reviewing the remaining FA pitchers, I ran some number over the past 3 years that essentially try to remove any "luck" or defense from the equation by normalizing BABIP and using the results to calculate ERA. I cannot remove effects of ballpark or league. Yet. I do have two very similar methods of doing this, and as long as I compare everyone the same method, the numbers are OK for comparison. In this respect, I like these number better than FIP, which is nothing more than a function of hits, walks and strikeouts. This process is still a work in progress.

     

    Anabal Sanchez - 3.76ERA 1.35WHIP

    Francisco Liriano - 4.00ERA 1.46WHIP

    Shaun Marcum - 4.23ERA, 1.38WHIP

    Ryan Dempster - 4.34ERA, 1.46WHIP

    Edwin Jackson - 4.37ERA, 1.40WHIP

    Kyle Lohse - 4.40ERA, 1.45WHIP

    Chris Capuano - 4.51ERA, 1.40WHIP (Technically not a free agent, but reportedly available.)

    Jeff Karstens - 4.81ERA, 1.46WHIP

     

    Sanchez is clearly the best. It is worth noting his FB/GB/LD splits are nearly identical to Dempster’s over the past 3 years as well as his K percentage, and the major factor seems to be his significantly lower home run rate, which has to at least be partially attributable to the ballparks each called home the past 3 years.  Dempster's BB% is also higher than Sanchez, which makes sense.  Dempster is a nibbler.  Sanchez is a bulldog.

    Liriano has a serious walk issue, but is the strikeout king (23%), just ahead of Dempster (21.9%) and Sanchez (21.1%). Liriano is at a disadvantage here, too, as he has thrown all his innings in the AL, unlike everyone else in this analysis.

    Liriano is also the ground ball king (49%) over these year. Edwin Jackson (46.1%), Anibal Sanchez (45.3%) and Ryan Dempster (45.1%) follow suit. Again, only one of these guys spent all his time in the AL.

    Trade candidate Chris Capuano is the most home run prone (11.5% HR/FB). Ryan Dempster (11.1%) and Jeff Karstens (11%) are right behind. With Dempster, there is a likely ballpark contributor, but Capuano really, really lacks this excuse. Kyle Lohse (7.6%) and Sanchez (8.3%) were the best at not allowing home runs. How Lohse allowed so few and still had such a lofty simulated ERA shows he might be the luckiest pitcher of the bunch and is probably worth avoiding, especially for what he is undoubtedly seeking. Lohse also surrenders the most line drives (22%!!), and he and Jackson (20.1%) are the only pitchers with a rate over 20. Capuano (18.4%), Liriano (18.7%) and Marcum (18.8%) surrender the fewest.

    Marcum is the most flyball prone (42%)which might not be so great at Fenway. His lead in this department is fairly significant as second highest was Karstens (37.2%). However, Marcum did keep his home run rate a respectable 9.9% and spent these years in two very homer prone stadiums. (Although the SkyDome does have a historically alleged caveat.) Liriano (32.3%) and Jackson (32.9%) allowed the fewest flyballs.

    All things considered, Liriano looks like the smartest candidate of the bunch. He keeps the ball in the park, and, more important, keeps it on the ground or out of play altogether, and might not require a ridiculous deal, which is an apparent factor. Sanchez is the best of the bunch, but even though he is the youngest, he has been allowing all his splits to be nearly identical to Dempster, who is 7 years older. This does not bode well for him as he ages. Marcum is a good option with a scary dark side, but might be the second best candidate, especially if he takes a short deal. Dempster figures to be the Lesser Sanchez, although he is the oldest pitcher here and could age rapidly. Jackson is just not as good as the others, but is very durable and obviously quite easy to trade. Lohse and Capuano are disasters waiting to happen. And no one even knows how Karstens got into the analysis in the first place.

    So really my thoughts are 1. Liriano 2. Marcum 3.Sanchez 4. Dempster 5.None of the above.

     




    Awesome post enjoy reading this post. Thanx

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    What they said!

    Thanks, Notin.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Love the post, learned a lot.  Looks like they're going to add Dempster anyway,  adding Sanchez or Liriano would make it a little more palatable I suppose.  The idea of Lackey and Dempster every 5 days is pretty depressing.

     
  10. This post has been removed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Great Post.....and I just love the fact that you have no idea how Karstens got into your analysis !!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    I'm glad you use your excess time wisely.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Clearly Notin having too much time on his hands is a very good thing.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    As usual, a well thought out post from notin.  Thanks. A few thoughts: If money wasn't involved, it is obvious that Anibel Sanchez would be the pick, because of age, track record, history w/ the organization, AL and post season success so recently....but money is factored in and they aren't going the years that he will demand.  I wouldn't either, as he is a good #3 starter on a playoff caliber team.

    Loshe is a disaster waiting to happen before you even look too closely at the numbers.  Typical NL pitcher, and the cardinals always seem to get the most out of their reclamation projects.  Plus he is represented by Boras who will get some team to give him a very regrettable contract.

    Edwin Jackson has pretty good stuff.  He has never really put it together and there must be a reason that he has played for 8 teams and isn't 30 yet.  Stay away.

    Marcum has pitched in the AL East, has shown that he is crafty when healthy, but its a big if.  If the sox had an amazing defense and needed a #5 starter for a change of pace guy, he may be the answer.  They need more than that, so I wouldn't have a prblem with Marcum for short money, but only as depth, in addition to another guy.

    Dempster scares me because of the AL/NL splits.  His age scares me.  But I know the reason that the Red Sox like him.  He pitches 200+ innings a year and can keep his team in games if they have a good enough offense to score 5-6 runs a game.  I'm not thrilled with him by any means.  But it sure seems like he is going to get 2-3 years @ 10-14 per.

    Liriano is probably the most intriguing on the list.  He has pitched in the AL, is left handed, still young, and shown the highest upside and flashes of dominance.  We now have a latin american pitching coach and a manager who was a pitcher.  I don't think the cost would be prohibitive.  What would it hurt to roll the dice on him?

    Jeff Karstens is still a major leaguer?

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Interesting stuff. Certainly useable when evaluating pitchers. Just as Siera, WAR, xFIP, and others are. In the last 3 seasons, Sanchez comes in first in the above 3 stats. And Dempster comes in second among those stats.

    A couple of points on your stats. First, Liriano I am quite sure is being helped a ton by his 2010 crazy good season. If Liriano had repeated that season in 2011 and 2012, I would have happily made him the highest paid pitcher in the history of baseball. Sadly, he didn't even come close. I think if you did Liriano's stats from just the last two seasons, instead of the last 3 seasons, you will find Liriano coming in dead last in your ERA stats and you would be less excited about him.

    My problem with Marcum is simply his health. Twice going on the DL last year with elbow issues and pitching poorly late in the year with a drop below 86 mph in velocity. I don't think Marcum is healthy.

    I would be cool going with a flyer on a one year make good contract with Liriano or Marcum. Marcum if he stays healthy and Liriano if he gets back maybe half way between 2010 and 2011 ability would be excellent additions. But 1 year deals are about as far as I would go. As for Dempster, thats a done deal. Of course pending his physical.

     
  16. This post has been removed.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    In response to notin's comment:

    The Free Agent pitchers – my analysis.

     

    In reviewing the remaining FA pitchers, I ran some number over the past 3 years that essentially try to remove any "luck" or defense from the equation by normalizing BABIP and using the results to calculate ERA. I cannot remove effects of ballpark or league. Yet. I do have two very similar methods of doing this, and as long as I compare everyone the same method, the numbers are OK for comparison. In this respect, I like these number better than FIP, which is nothing more than a function of hits, walks and strikeouts. This process is still a work in progress.

     

    Anabal Sanchez - 3.76ERA 1.35WHIP

    Francisco Liriano - 4.00ERA 1.46WHIP

    Shaun Marcum - 4.23ERA, 1.38WHIP

    Ryan Dempster - 4.34ERA, 1.46WHIP

    Edwin Jackson - 4.37ERA, 1.40WHIP

    Kyle Lohse - 4.40ERA, 1.45WHIP

    Chris Capuano - 4.51ERA, 1.40WHIP (Technically not a free agent, but reportedly available.)

    Jeff Karstens - 4.81ERA, 1.46WHIP

     

    Sanchez is clearly the best. It is worth noting his FB/GB/LD splits are nearly identical to Dempster’s over the past 3 years as well as his K percentage, and the major factor seems to be his significantly lower home run rate, which has to at least be partially attributable to the ballparks each called home the past 3 years.  Dempster's BB% is also higher than Sanchez, which makes sense.  Dempster is a nibbler.  Sanchez is a bulldog.

    Liriano has a serious walk issue, but is the strikeout king (23%), just ahead of Dempster (21.9%) and Sanchez (21.1%). Liriano is at a disadvantage here, too, as he has thrown all his innings in the AL, unlike everyone else in this analysis.

    Liriano is also the ground ball king (49%) over these year. Edwin Jackson (46.1%), Anibal Sanchez (45.3%) and Ryan Dempster (45.1%) follow suit. Again, only one of these guys spent all his time in the AL.

    Trade candidate Chris Capuano is the most home run prone (11.5% HR/FB). Ryan Dempster (11.1%) and Jeff Karstens (11%) are right behind. With Dempster, there is a likely ballpark contributor, but Capuano really, really lacks this excuse. Kyle Lohse (7.6%) and Sanchez (8.3%) were the best at not allowing home runs. How Lohse allowed so few and still had such a lofty simulated ERA shows he might be the luckiest pitcher of the bunch and is probably worth avoiding, especially for what he is undoubtedly seeking. Lohse also surrenders the most line drives (22%!!), and he and Jackson (20.1%) are the only pitchers with a rate over 20. Capuano (18.4%), Liriano (18.7%) and Marcum (18.8%) surrender the fewest.

    Marcum is the most flyball prone (42%)which might not be so great at Fenway. His lead in this department is fairly significant as second highest was Karstens (37.2%). However, Marcum did keep his home run rate a respectable 9.9% and spent these years in two very homer prone stadiums. (Although the SkyDome does have a historically alleged caveat.) Liriano (32.3%) and Jackson (32.9%) allowed the fewest flyballs.

    All things considered, Liriano looks like the smartest candidate of the bunch. He keeps the ball in the park, and, more important, keeps it on the ground or out of play altogether, and might not require a ridiculous deal, which is an apparent factor. Sanchez is the best of the bunch, but even though he is the youngest, he has been allowing all his splits to be nearly identical to Dempster, who is 7 years older. This does not bode well for him as he ages. Marcum is a good option with a scary dark side, but might be the second best candidate, especially if he takes a short deal. Dempster figures to be the Lesser Sanchez, although he is the oldest pitcher here and could age rapidly. Jackson is just not as good as the others, but is very durable and obviously quite easy to trade. Lohse and Capuano are disasters waiting to happen. And no one even knows how Karstens got into the analysis in the first place.

    So really my thoughts are 1. Liriano 2. Marcum 3.Sanchez 4. Dempster 5.None of the above.

     



    You left off Villanueva, who I think is as good or better than most of the ones you listed. However, very solid analysis. You should write for Bleacher Report instead of those  clowns Roach and Klein

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    Nobody left over on this list or anyone else's FA wish list are going to help us increase our chances of making the playoffs enough to change much. We are londshots as it is.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Excellent post notin, do you have your numbers on Joe Saunders?

    Pavano (I heard the Sox were interested: I am not.)?

    Jo. Sanchez?

    Villanueva?

    Your thoughts on these 3 as pitching depth signings would be greatly appreciated.

     




     

    Saunders – 5.22ERA, 1.59WHIP

    J. Sanchez – 4.55ERA, 1.60WHIP

    Villanueva – 5.00ERA, 1.55WHIP

     

    Saunders main issue is how many balls are in play, as he struck out a ridiculously low 13.4%. He keeps the ball down and on the ground or as line drives, and does not walk any, and I was surprised how high the simulated ERA turned out. He faces a lot of hitters and does not get hurt much, but he has potential to be a bullpen pitcher even with his high pitch counts. He strikes me as belonging in the same category as Lohse or Capuano (who might be “improving” but being a flyball / home run prone pitcher in the new expanded Shea and in Los Angeles might not translate into similar success at Fenway, especially for a LHP). The real issue with Saunders appears to be home runs. While his GB numbers are better that his flyball numbers , the guy has averaged 25HRs per year for the past 3 years and his 10.8 HR/FB% is approaching the top of the list.. Anaheim is a fairly spacious park, although Arizona is certainly not. Saunders should be avoided. Let someone else overpay for him.

     

    J Sanchez finished last year on the 60-day DL trending downward the last 3 years. His numbers in this are all but carried by 2010. His last 2 seasons have been injury-plagued and were extremely ineffective, unlike his fairly decent 2010. He also walks more (13.6%) than anyone else so far. I do not think the pen should be in his future (unlike my previous recommendations way back when), as the pen is no place for control issues. Sanchez also has had concerning durability issues and any team that signs him for a SP is probably going to need a Plan B sooner than expected. If Sanchez were actually healthy, he might have a reasonable shot at contributing. He is the kind of pitcher who would be a solid pickup if he could be stashed in Pawtucket or on the DL to start the season, and called up for brief stints to prove himself, but he is not someone to be counted on for too many IP, not at first. Think low money or minor league deal, the kind of guy you could release at any time if it does not work out.

     

    Villanueva has yet to start for a full season and gave me the smallest sample size of any pitcher. His K% was very good (21.2%) as was his BB% (8.3%), but he is a flyball pitcher (42.6%) who works up in the zone. He profiles similar to Marcum, but with less success and numbers that are tainted with relief work, which is not the same as starting. Marcum would have been much smarter than Villanueva.

     

    I think I will stand by more original order (which i a bit moot now), but J. Sanchez should be worth a minor league deal...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Yes I have too much time on my hands

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Excellent post notin, do you have your numbers on Joe Saunders?

    Pavano (I heard the Sox were interested: I am not.)?

    Jo. Sanchez?

    Villanueva?

    Your thoughts on these 3 as pitching depth signings would be greatly appreciated.

     




     

    Saunders – 5.22ERA, 1.59WHIP

    J. Sanchez – 4.55ERA, 1.60WHIP

    Villanueva – 5.00ERA, 1.55WHIP

     

    Saunders main issue is how many balls are in play, as he struck out a ridiculously low 13.4%. He keeps the ball down and on the ground or as line drives, and does not walk any, and I was surprised how high the simulated ERA turned out. He faces a lot of hitters and does not get hurt much, but he has potential to be a bullpen pitcher even with his high pitch counts. He strikes me as belonging in the same category as Lohse or Capuano (who might be “improving” but being a flyball / home run prone pitcher in the new expanded Shea and in Los Angeles might not translate into similar success at Fenway, especially for a LHP). The real issue with Saunders appears to be home runs. While his GB numbers are better that his flyball numbers , the guy has averaged 25HRs per year for the past 3 years and his 10.8 HR/FB% is approaching the top of the list.. Anaheim is a fairly spacious park, although Arizona is certainly not. Saunders should be avoided. Let someone else overpay for him.

     

    J Sanchez finished last year on the 60-day DL trending downward the last 3 years. His numbers in this are all but carried by 2010. His last 2 seasons have been injury-plagued and were extremely ineffective, unlike his fairly decent 2010. He also walks more (13.6%) than anyone else so far. I do not think the pen should be in his future (unlike my previous recommendations way back when), as the pen is no place for control issues. Sanchez also has had concerning durability issues and any team that signs him for a SP is probably going to need a Plan B sooner than expected. If Sanchez were actually healthy, he might have a reasonable shot at contributing. He is the kind of pitcher who would be a solid pickup if he could be stashed in Pawtucket or on the DL to start the season, and called up for brief stints to prove himself, but he is not someone to be counted on for too many IP, not at first. Think low money or minor league deal, the kind of guy you could release at any time if it does not work out.

     

    Villanueva has yet to start for a full season and gave me the smallest sample size of any pitcher. His K% was very good (21.2%) as was his BB% (8.3%), but he is a flyball pitcher (42.6%) who works up in the zone. He profiles similar to Marcum, but with less success and numbers that are tainted with relief work, which is not the same as starting. Marcum would have been much smarter than Villanueva.

     

    I think I will stand by more original order (which i a bit moot now), but J. Sanchez should be worth a minor league deal...



    Thanks for your thorough analysis.

    I guess with Joe Saunders I might have been overvaluing my rememberance of his 2008 season and the fact that he looked pretty good with the O's last year in his 6 or 7 starts after the trade.

    BTW, I have never been for building up a staff from the 5 or 6 slot, but there is value in depth. I much prefer to rebuild from near the top of the rotation and sliding everyone else down a notch, but that is easier said than done.

     
  21. This post has been removed.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share