Yu Darvish

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    Re: Yu Darvish

    With Dice not returning until August, 2012 and now Lackey gone for all of 2012, we have two huge holes to fill behind Beckett, Lester and Buccholz.

    The open market for starting pitching isn't exactly a target rich environment, especially if you consider those with a team option for 2012 [see the *]

    Starting Pitchers
    Mark Buehrle CWS
    Bruce Chen KC
    Aaron Cook COL *
    Kyle Davies TOR
    Ryan Dempster CHC *
    Justin Duchscherer OAK
    Zach Duke ARI *
    Jeff Francis KC
    Freddy Garcia NYY
    Jon Garland LAD
    Aaron Harang SD
    Rich Harden OAK
    Livan Hernandez WAS
    Edwin Jackson STL
    Kenshin Kawakami ATL
    Scott Kazmir LAA
    Hiroki Kuroda LAD
    Rodrigo Lopez CHC
    Paul Maholm PIT
    John Maine COL
    Jason Marquis WAS
    Kevin Millwood NYY
    Scott Olsen PIT *
    Roy Oswalt PHI *
    Brad Penny DET
    Oliver Perez NYM
    Joel Pineiro LAA
    CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
    Carlos Silva NYY
    Javier Vazquez FLA
    Adam Wainwright STL *
    Tim Wakefield BOS
    Chien-Ming Wang WAS
    Brandon Webb ARI
    C.J. Wilson TEX
    Chris Young NYM
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ddimaria. Show ddimaria's posts

    Re: Yu Darvish

    I don't know if this has been mentioned but the nice part from a MLB standpoint of bringing in players from Japan is that (I believe) the posting fee does not fall or have anything to do with the overall salary numbers for the team in the eyes of the league. Am I correct?

    On a side note, I would seriously consider transitioning Aceves into a starter.  He is the grinding, get the job done, kind of starter we need in the rotation right now.

    Just my 2 cents.
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    It amazes me that posters are against signing a guy based on the fact he is from Japan, when they most likely have never seen him pitch. I have no idea what type of talent he has, but I do know that I was thrilled when the Sox won the rights to Dice K, because of his legend and what we saw of him vs top talent in the WBC.  The Sox would be crazy, if they think Darvish is talented, to come up with the posting fee they think is approraite and bid on him...if you win...so be it....you negotiate a contract. Thats what scouts and a good front office is for.....not to eliminate a guy because you think he is from somewhere where no pitcher has ever been a superstaar from.

     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    Zac -

    Glad we could agree that Darvish's future successes/failures are his alone to experience with the talents that he possesses and are not influenced by past pitcher's.

    My point on the posting fee being negligble is not based on fact, just my hunch. I know MLB has revenue sharing of some type, but I would have to assume the following.

    If the Sox posted him for $60 Mil and signed him for 6 years...I would safely assume that increased viewership/merchandise sales/extra ticket sales etc etc from Japanese fanbase would be greater than $60 Mil over 6 years.

    Side note to cash value of a draft pick. When a team signs a Type A free agent, the player's previous team nets a 1st Rder and Sandwich Rder. Generally, the slot value for a mid to late first round pick is approx $1.25 mil,plus the sandwich rounders who get less than one million.

    So sign a MLB ready player for excessive millions or pay two amateurs 2 million and wait and hope they pan out.

    http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2011-mlb-draft-signings-and-bonuses/

     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Yu Darvish : Kuroda is a starting pitcher and is probably the third best arm on the US FA market this year.  Vogelsong is a starter and he had the lowest ERA on a staff that carried the Giants to a World Series in 2010.  The nay-sayers basically point to three guys - Nomo, Irabu & Dice-K.  Nomo and Irabu last pitched in the Japan in 1994 and 1996 respectively.  You don't think the Japanese leagues have improved in the past 15 years?   As for Dice-K, his stuff is as good as advertised; it's his command that has hurt him.  Darvish has a 6/1 K/BB ratio at 24 years of age. Do it!  
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    Kuroda is 37 yrs old - has had one winning season (8-7) and has a 41-46 record after 4 seasons in the NL. If this is the 3rd best arm available then the Sox are really chasing their tails when it comes to replacing 2 starters in 2012. 

    Vogelsong is 35 yrs old - had his first winning season last year for the Giants (13-7) and looked great.  How many years do the Sox offer him since he is the the 2nd best arm available?   

    This argument for great pitching coming from the Japanese league just doesn't seem to hold much water.  Sox have had enough long term contract failures and it just doesn't make much sense to acquire another one in Darvish.  At least with Wilson the Sox know he can pitch in the AL.
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    Ask the Yankee fan on a Red Sox site if you desire credibility.
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Yu Darvish : Kuroda is 37 yrs old - has had one winning season (8-7) and has a 41-46 record after 4 seasons in the NL. If this is the 3rd best arm available then the Sox are really chasing their tails when it comes to replacing 2 starters in 2012.  Vogelsong is 35 yrs old - had his first winning season last year for the Giants (13-7) and looked great.  How many years do the Sox offer him since he is the the 2nd best arm available?    This argument for great pitching coming from the Japanese league just doesn't seem to hold much water.  Sox have had enough long term contract failures and it just doesn't make much sense to acquire another one in Darvish.  At least with Wilson the Sox know he can pitch in the AL.
    Posted by traven[/QUOTE]

    Please - using wins to evaluate a pitcher is pretty desperate.  Kuroda's numbers are very good - 3.45 ERA, 1.187 WHIP.  You don't think we can use that arm on our staff?

    Vogelsong is not available, and the Giants aren't letting him go.  But you failed to mention that he learned to pitch in Japan - he pitched in MLB until he was 28, and he stunk.  He went to Japan, and came back five years later with a 2.71 ERA!  You don't think they know a thing or two about baseball in Japan?

    If you get your way, I'll see you this time next year, when you're wondering if we can unload Wilson if we take over somebody else's terrible mistake contract.

     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]TitleTown11 My point on the posting fee being negligble is not based on fact, just my hunch. I respect that, and no one knows for sure but my hunch is just like dice k  it will be a lot less than you think part of that is based on the  fact the sox already sell out Generally, the slot value for a mid to late first round pick is approx $1.25 mil,plus the sandwich rounders who get less than one million. I don't see a draft choices  value & salary /contract as the same thing I'm not sure if that's what you were saying but my point was as  a big market team I'd rather pay the posting fee than lose my #1 rd draft choice you just can't buy 1
    Posted by pinstripezac[/QUOTE]

    The Sox sell out, but they also a own a controlling interest in NESN.  MLB owns the rights to all international broadcasts, but they have to negotiate with the local stations to buy those rights.  I wouldn't be surprised if that leverage alone is worth the posting fee.  It also puts the Red Sox in a pretty unique position to profit from signing a guy like Darvish.

    There are also royalties from merchandise in the New England area (MLB gets the royalties outside the New England area) and the Red Sox have a tourism arm of their marketing department that brings in some revenue.   My guess is these profits pale in comparison to the broadcast profits.


     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]Merchandise There’s no question that a lot of Red Sox caps and jerseys were sold in Japan this year, but not much of that money will find its way back to Boston. That’s because the Sox hold on to the retail markup only for merchandise sold at Fenway and in their local boutiques . The licensing revenue—by far the majority of earnings from merchandise sales—is shared with Major League Baseball’s 29 other franchises. Value: up to $1 million Television When Hideki Matsui joined the Yankees in 2003, M.L.B. struck a $275 million TV deal with three Japanese networks. Matsuzaka’s presence will strengthen the league’s hand when it renegotiates that contract in 2009. But since revenue from national and international TV deals is distributed evenly among M.L.B. franchises, Boston would have gotten that money even if Dice-K had signed with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Value: $0 Read more: http://www.portfolio.com/culture-lifestyle/culture-inc/sports/2007/09/17/Daisuke-Matsuzaka-analysis/#ixzz1bvixvhvr
    Posted by pinstripezac[/QUOTE]

    Hey zac,

    It certainly could be beneficial to sign a top Japanese player in the US.  I haven't personally seen Darvish pitch but I'm sure someone will go after him.  I just don't see the Sox doing it again even though "as another poster pointed out" Yu, is younger than Dice who had a ton of innings on his arm when we signed him and may be a much safer bet if the talent is there.

     
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    Thanks Pinstripezac but we already knew that?  Please us us a few paragraphs on how this affects your Yankees? Many on this forum are still confused on why you are on this forum for twelve hours per day instead being on a Yankees forum. It's a simple question. Please explain.
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    No room for argument or a pizzing contest here. Wait and see.
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Yu Darvish : Please - using wins to evaluate a pitcher is pretty desperate.  Kuroda's numbers are very good - 3.45 ERA, 1.187 WHIP.  You don't think we can use that arm on our staff? Vogelsong is not available, and the Giants aren't letting him go.  But you failed to mention that he learned to pitch in Japan - he pitched in MLB until he was 28, and he stunk.  He went to Japan, and came back five years later with a 2.71 ERA!  You don't think they know a thing or two about baseball in Japan? If you get your way, I'll see you this time next year, when you're wondering if we can unload Wilson if we take over somebody else's terrible mistake contract.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    My reference to signing Wilson was that it was a preferred option to me over
    Darvish.  Since the new GM has already said that the Sox will continue Theo's  idea of going after low risk/high reward pitching for next year - we both are most likely barking up the wrong tree.




     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]"The signing of this player is definitely not a huge financial windfall for us," Kennedy said. "There really aren't a lot of economic benefits." . "I'm not intentionally downplaying the economic benefit, but this is what hasn't been clear to the public," he said. "The reality is that all sponsorships, advertising deals and conducting revenue-generated deals for the Red Sox are exclusively limited to Fenway Park. Again, there is not a big financial benefit associated with this guy." The problem facing Boston is that outside of the advertising and sponsorship deals cut to generate revenue inside the Sox's home park and within the six New England states (except Yankees-controlled Fairfield County in Connecticut), Major League Baseball controls the Red Sox "mark." "There is absolutely no doubt that there is not going to be a significant increase in our local revenue, which is all we're allowed to earn," Kennedy said. "Hopefully, you'll see a couple of Japanese companies advertising at Fenway, but at this stage we don't have any sponsorship arrangements in place." Even the prospects of integrating the Red Sox-owned New England Sports Network programming into Japan won't bring substantially more cash Boston's way. The team can make some money by using new technology in broadcasts to change the virtual signage behind home plate, depending on which market is watching the game broadcast. But even then, only a piece of the money raised by the electronic advertising goes to the Sox, with MLB taking it's entitled chunk. "There's no money to made by NESN at all since the broadcast rights are controlled exclusively by Major League Baseball," Kennedy explained. "MLB controls all the games showed in Japan." http://www.eagletribune.com/sports/x1876314903/Matsuzaka-wont-be-cash-cow-Red-Sox-need
    Posted by pinstripezac[/QUOTE]

    Zac,  broadcasts are controlled by MLB, but MLB still has to negotiate the terms of the distribution with the local market.  There are a handful of Fox Sports affiliates who do not allow MLB to re-broadcast their transmissions.  You can bet NESN and YES get a lot sweeter compensation than Fox Sports San Diego.



     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Yu Darvish : My reference to signing Wilson was that it was a preferred option to me over Darvish.  Since the new GM has already said that the Sox will continue Theo's  idea of going after low risk/high reward pitching for next year - we both are most likely barking up the wrong tree.
    Posted by traven[/QUOTE]

    Or he's following Theo's idea of not tipping his hand - particularly smart if going after Darvish.  I

     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Yu Darvish : My reference to signing Wilson was that it was a preferred option to me over Darvish.  Since the new GM has already said that the Sox will continue Theo's  idea of going after low risk/high reward pitching for next year - we both are most likely barking up the wrong tree.
    Posted by traven[/QUOTE]

    Low risk doesn't necessarily mean high reward...ie Lackey. I understand Wilson (and Beuhrle/Jackson/ etc) has an established MLB pedigree and Darvish doesn't. But the way I look at it is that any pitcher is an investment. What are you paying them to do over the duration of that contract you are handing them? Would I rather have Wilson at age 32-37 or Darvish age 25-31? For me the answer is clear-but I understand everyone has their preference. I fully expect Darvish to contribute to an MLB staff for the next 5 years and I hope it's the Sox.
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    I'd take Darvish over CJ Wilson any day.  Did you watch that YouTube video?  He has #1 stuff.  Not sure if he is just as nasty with the bigger American ball, but with the exception of the hyped up gyro ball that did not really exist, Matsuzaka had all the breaking pitches and a 94-95 MPH fastball his first two seasons here.

    I also read that the posting fee for Darvish is expected to be in the 25-30 million dollar range, almost half of what Matsuzaka commanded.  It is not insignificant that the posting fee is in lieu of giving up a #1 draft pick.  That in itself might be worth spending the 30 million...especially as it does not factor into the calculations for luxury tax liablity. 

    Even if the posting fee is not recouped in expanded fan base, it allows you to get a very good young pitcher for no players or draft picks whatsoever.  That is exactly what the Sox need right now, a way to improve their pitching without decimating their farm, or hindering their ability to rebuild said farm system

     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    In Response to Re: Yu Darvish:
    [QUOTE]I'd take Darvish over CJ Wilson any day.  Did you watch that YouTube video?  He has #1 stuff.  Not sure if he is just as nasty with the bigger American ball, but with the exception of the hyped up gyro ball that did not really exist, Matsuzaka had all the breaking pitches and a 94-95 MPH fastball his first two seasons here. I also read that the posting fee for Darvish is expected to be in the 25-30 million dollar range, almost half of what Matsuzaka commanded.  It is not insignificant that the posting fee is in lieu of giving up a #1 draft pick.  That in itself might be worth spending the 30 million...especially as it does not factor into the calculations for luxury tax liablity.  Even if the posting fee is not recouped in expanded fan base, it allows you to get a very good young pitcher for no players or draft picks whatsoever.  That is exactly what the Sox need right now, a way to improve their pitching without decimating their farm, or hindering their ability to rebuild said farm system
    Posted by parhunter1[/QUOTE]

    Bingo, bingo, bingo!

     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    Sox need a talent influx and he has talent in spades. Will earn a more reasonable contract than some other pitchers available this offseason.
     
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    Re: Yu Darvish

    Darvish is younger & healthier than Dice K and BIGGER which will enable him to grip the larger USA baseball...Dice K had trouble with that but when healthy Dice was a GOOD starter In 2008 he had a 2.98 ERA in the AL East winning 18 games! Very good numbers..however he had a bad attitude & never listened to the Sox on conditioning, hence damaged his arm
       Im a big ALFREDO ACEVES fan & screamed at Francona for starting Weiland & Miller ovedr him time and time again.
    Id pass on Darvish, abnd trade a package of Reddick..Anderson..Doubront & or weiland, Salty or Lavarnway to the White sox for Gavin Floyd & Carlos Quentin
    White Sox are cleaning house & will do that deal  add a solid, touygh Floyd to staff and its  Beckett  Lester Buchholz Aceves & Floyd as excellent starting rotation...now take the Darvish money and sign 2 FA relievers!
    Quentin moves into right field and gives us a power right handed bat!!!
     
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