Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Heard all winter Ellsbury would command 8/$160, but aft seeing what Zimmerman signed for hard to see Ellsburys worth as more than Zimmermans? AAV for Zimmermans contract about $16.5 million. Personally, I am not in favor of negotiating with Ellsbury until he shows he can do it again this year. I am thinking 6/$90 might be Ellsbury range.
     
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    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Heard all winter Ellsbury would command 8/$160, but aft seeing what Zimmerman signed for hard to see Ellsburys worth as more than Zimmermans? AAV for Zimmermans contract about $16.5 million. Personally, I am not in favor of negotiating with Ellsbury until he shows he can do it again this year. I am thinking 6/$90 might be Ellsbury range.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]

     Ellsbury is a tricky situation, do you try and sign him long term, paying more now but less later, thinking he can come close to his "11 numbers. If not, does his price just keep getting higher and possibly losing him to FA.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mchampion. Show Mchampion's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Ellsbury should be signed as a premium player he is.  We let Paps go and we sign garbage like Lackey and Crawford.  Lets keep our good players and sign complimentary players to as we did this year.  It will take a few years to clear out the garbage that Theo has left behind but I believe Ben has a better plan.  
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Ellsbury is going to have to prove 2011 is not an outlier to get that kind of cash from anyone. If he reverts to being a .290/.340/.405 hitter with 9Hrs and 60 steals, is anyone going to give him $15-20mill per year?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from WesternOregon. Show WesternOregon's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Ellsbury should be signed as a premium player he is.  We let Paps go and we sign garbage like Lackey and Crawford.  Lets keep our good players and sign complimentary players to as we did this year.  It will take a few years to clear out the garbage that Theo has left behind but I believe Ben has a better plan.  
    Posted by Mchampion[/QUOTE]

    People actually think like you do? lol...a blur of b.s. with nothing short of abject criticism? lol...you need to approach "Ben" (now that you're on a first name basis) for a job. Methinks you're everything and a bag of chips that a G.M. assistant is made of!

    You like Jacoby Ellsbury.
    You miss "Paps"...
    You consider MLB players to be "garbage"...
    You are pejorative toward "Theo"...
    ...yet "Ben" has a "better plan"...

    Thanks for sharing your random thoughts. lololol
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Heard all winter Ellsbury would command 8/$160, but aft seeing what Zimmerman signed for hard to see Ellsburys worth as more than Zimmermans? AAV for Zimmermans contract about $16.5 million. Personally, I am not in favor of negotiating with Ellsbury until he shows he can do it again this year. I am thinking 6/$90 might be Ellsbury range.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]

    Money is tight but not that tight next season.  We could easily lose David, Dice, Jenks which frees up the cash needed to sign Jacoby long term.  Other options are trading Youk or possibly lackey at a discount.  I'm hoping a few of our kids like Kalish, Bard, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway and Iggy have a solid year which could make for a smooth transition, otherwise we will have some interesting decisions to make.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Ellsbury is going to have to prove 2011 is not an outlier to get that kind of cash from anyone. If he reverts to being a .290/.340/.405 hitter with 9Hrs and 60 steals, is anyone going to give him $15-20mill per year?
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    Jacoby showed last season he has the perfect swing and power to dominate the RF wall again.  I'm not saying he will be a 30hr guy each year but do feel 2012 will be another strong season.

    It still comes down to what type of person Jacoby is and whether he wants to stay in Boston.  Boras is a difficult guy and I will tell you the money given to Crawford last season will mean a lot when trying to sign Jacoby.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    For what it's worth, Ryan Zimmerman has been valued at 30.2 WAR* in 845 MLB games (or 3.57 WAR per 100 games).

    Jacoby Ellsbury, who is a year older than Zimmerman, has been valued at 17.3 WAR in 507 MLB games (or 3.41 WAR per 100 games).

    Of course, the disparity was wide a year ago before Zimmerman and Ellsbury posted 2011 WARs of 2.5 and 9.4, respectively.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from coachzap. Show coachzap's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Ellsbury has turned into a star. This progression would have been showing up a year sooner if not for the injury. He is just now starting his prime years and is homegrown. Foolish to even consider letting him walk.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Foolish to even consider letting him walk.

    Foolish to consider paying 30 to 40 million a year for Crawford and Ellsboris. Ellsbury will be walking, and the Red Sox should trade him while there is still some sucker GM's out there in the NL. Crawford is a distressed asset and is on the books to stay. Crawford is, in fact, more talented than the more popular and non-colored Ellsbury. Crawford's offer was the disgrace that is InEsptein, but Crawford could not handle the contract pressure and crumbled under that pressure after leaving the town that doesn't care about baseball. But, Crawford, now that Henry has apologized as a ploy to try and get Crawford to relax and play better, Crawford is likely to return closer to career median average.

    The best way to get the best out of Crawford is to trade Ellsbury, which was InEpstein's plan when he made the offer to Crawford. The mistake offer to Crawford cann't be undone, and no reason to make the same mistake twice for the same kind of player. Red Sox fans need to drop the bigotry, get behind Crawford and run Ellsbury and Boras onto another payroll in exchange for a true young star RH OPS profile.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Foolish to even consider letting him walk. Foolish to consider paying 30 to 40 million a year for Crawford and Ellsboris. Ellsbury will be walking, and the Red Sox should trade him while there is still some sucker GM's out there in the NL. Crawford is a distressed asset and is on the books to stay. Crawford is, in fact, more talented than the more popular and non-colored Ellsbury. Crawford's offer was the disgrace that is InEsptein, but Crawford could not handle the contract pressure and crumbled under that pressure after leaving the town that doesn't care about baseball. But, Crawford, now that Henry has apologized as a ploy to try and get Crawford to relax and play better, Crawford is likely to return closer to career median average. The best way to get the best out of Crawford is to trade Ellsbury, which was InEpstein's plan when he made the offer to Crawford. The mistake offer to Crawford cann't be undone, and no reason to make the same mistake twice for the same kind of player. Red Sox fans need to drop the bigotry, get behind Crawford and run Ellsbury and Boras onto another payroll in exchange for a true young star RH OPS profile.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    THINGS WE KNOW FOR SURE:

    1.  THE SUN RISES IN THE EAST ANDD GENERALLY SETS IN THE WEST...

    2.  IF YOU EAT SOMETHING, YOU WILL P  OO P SOMETHING.

    3.  DOLPHINS MUST HOLD THEIR BREATH UNDER WATER

    4.  SOFTY/HANKY WILL FIND SOMEWAY TO KNOCK ELLSBURY.

    5.  THERE IS A STANDING INVITATION TO CLOWN COLLEGE FOR SOFTY ...
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    THINGS WE KNOW FOR SURE:

    1. Death and Taxes and Democrats Promising Voters Something for Nothing

    2. "Yazzer" whining about people who don't see the world the same way as Yazzer
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Ellsbury should be signed as a premium player he is.  We let Paps go and we sign garbage like Lackey and Crawford.  Lets keep our good players and sign complimentary players to as we did this year.  It will take a few years to clear out the garbage that Theo has left behind but I believe Ben has a better plan.  
    Posted by Mchampion[/QUOTE]

    After only having 1 year as a "premium player" what exactly is keeping him from being "garbage" like Lackey and Crawford?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from coachzap. Show coachzap's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Crawford isnt garbage first of all and when he bounces back I hope idiots like you dont try to act like you knew he would. Im guessing you dumped on Ellsbury during his injury too. Guys like you are pathetic fans to have around.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Crawford isnt garbage first of all and when he bounces back I hope idiots like you dont try to act like you knew he would. Im guessing you dumped on Ellsbury during his injury too. Guys like you are pathetic fans to have around.
    Posted by coachzap[/QUOTE]
    Who exactly are you replying too?  Surely you could see that I was quoting someone else in calling Crawford "garbage".  He's certainly overpaid, even if he repeated his career year of 2011 every year of this contract he would still be overpaid, but I expect a significant rebound in 2012.  His BABIP plummeted last season, even while he increased his line drive rate (which normally results in an increase in BABIP).  Personally, I'm not ready to write off the Lackey deal yet either.  2010 was an adjustment year in which he still provided significant value (although not as much as his contract would demand) and last year he was mismanaged as he attempted to pitch through a significant injury.  Normally, this would be enough to consider the contract a bad deal, but because the Sox gain an extra year of Lackey at league minimum, it's at least palatable.  I would have preferred to have seen him shut it down like Dice last year, which in hindsight may have meant a playoff berth for the Sox last season.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Heard all winter Ellsbury would command 8/$160, but aft seeing what Zimmerman signed for hard to see Ellsburys worth as more than Zimmermans? AAV for Zimmermans contract about $16.5 million. Personally, I am not in favor of negotiating with Ellsbury until he shows he can do it again this year. I am thinking 6/$90 might be Ellsbury range.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]
    If Ells is able to have another superstar type of season (which is a significant if), then I don't see why Ells and Boras wouldn't point to the deal that Kemp signed, $160M / 8 years, as a starting point.  The Kemp deal also covers his arb3 year paying him just $10M for that season.  Kemp was negotiating from a $6.95M 2011 salary, while Ells will be working from $8.05M
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Crawford's contract is a good starting point, for allowing some other idiotic GM to offer Ellsbury a sunk cost contract of the future.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Ellsbury is going to have to prove 2011 is not an outlier to get that kind of cash from anyone. If he reverts to being a .290/.340/.405 hitter with 9Hrs and 60 steals, is anyone going to give him $15-20mill per year?
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    Here is a short list (please add) off the top of my head of players who got bigger money than folks on this bosrd (myself included) expected.  Too many times it has been said "no way is he worth....$.." and then big deals are announced that seem way too big:

    Crawford
    Fielder
    Werth
    V Martinez
    Dunn
    Bay
    Hunter
    and on, and on...
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]For what it's worth, Ryan Zimmerman has been valued at 30.2 WAR* in 845 MLB games (or 3.57 WAR per 100 games). Jacoby Ellsbury, who is a year older than Zimmerman, has been valued at 17.3 WAR in 507 MLB games (or 3.41 WAR per 100 games). Of course, the disparity was wide a year ago before Zimmerman and Ellsbury posted 2011 WARs of 2.5 and 9.4, respectively. * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Ells is tough to compare to anyone.  He doesn't have a deep body of work, but very few players have had a season like he had last year.  Zim is probably better, based on a more solid history, and he is younger.  It's probably a close enough comparison.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    We will just have to see what kind of year he has. Can he duplicate or improve on last year?  Time will tell.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Line-up protection is largely a myth.  The addition of AGon didn't lead to an increase in fastballs to both Pedroia and Ellsbury, they both saw fewer.  I guess one could argue they would have seen even fewer, but I wouldn't.

    "http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/2/2839349/jacoby-ellsbury-curtis-granderson-2011-performances Ellsbury's secret to success was specific, though. Pitchers used to kill him with fastballs inside and low, as he didn't have the patience, swing mechanics, or power to drive them. If pitchers needed Ellsbury to whiff or make weak contact, challenging him with a fastball -- and focusing it low and inside -- was the key. Ellsbury ranked #16 in the majors from 2007 through 2010 in percentage of fastballs seen with 65.8 percent, alongside the likes of players no one is going to confuse for power hitters:

    RankPlayerFB%
    1David Eckstein73%
    2Luis Castillo72%
    3Jason Kendall71%
    4Omar Vizquel70%
    5Juan Pierre69%
    6Nick Punto69%
    7Jamey Carroll69%
    8Alexi Casilla69%
    9Scott Podsednik67%
    10Chone Figgins67%
    11Willy Taveras67%
    12Denard Span67%
    13Craig Counsell67%
    14Maicer Izturis66%
    15Placido Polanco66%
    16Jacoby Ellsbury65%

    Pitchers didn't get the memo in time in 2011 to stop Ellsbury from being a power threat. He still saw 62 percent fastballs, good for #11 in the majors among qualified players. That's likely to change now that the league has had the off-season to see just what they did wrong against Ellsbury, but it's also not likely to stop his performance completely.

    The 2011 version of Ellsbury was one with a different approach. He attacked and succeeded at crushing pitches he had not had much luck with in the past, in a way that exceeded even the most optimistic of his old scouting reports. Fangraphs' pitch value data is not predictive, but it does tell a story of what happened. Prior to 2011, Ellsbury had produced -0.5 runs against fastballs. In 2011, he was at +31.4 against heaters. If that doesn't bump him out of the top 20 in fastballs seen, then the league deserves what's coming to them.

    Adjustments will only slow the tide, though, not stop it entirely, as Ellsbury has shown himself capable of driving just about anything thrown in his direction. If he "only" goes deep 20-25 times year instead of being a 30-plus homer threat, the Red Sox will find a way to accept him for who he is."

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Line-up protection is largely a myth.  The addition of AGon didn't lead to an increase of fastballs to both Pedroia and Ellsbury, they both saw fewer.  I guess one could argue they would have seen even fewer, but I wouldn't. " http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/2/2839349/jacoby-ellsbury-curtis-granderson-2011-performances  Ellsbury's secret to success was specific, though. Pitchers used to kill him with fastballs inside and low, as he didn't have the patience, swing mechanics, or power to drive them. If pitchers needed Ellsbury to whiff or make weak contact, challenging him with a fastball -- and focusing it low and inside -- was the key. Ellsbury ranked #16 in the majors from 2007 through 2010 in percentage of fastballs seen with 65.8 percent, alongside the likes of players no one is going to confuse for power hitters: Rank Player FB% 1 David Eckstein 73% 2 Luis Castillo 72% 3 Jason Kendall 71% 4 Omar Vizquel 70% 5 Juan Pierre 69% 6 Nick Punto 69% 7 Jamey Carroll 69% 8 Alexi Casilla 69% 9 Scott Podsednik 67% 10 Chone Figgins 67% 11 Willy Taveras 67% 12 Denard Span 67% 13 Craig Counsell 67% 14 Maicer Izturis 66% 15 Placido Polanco 66% 16 Jacoby Ellsbury 65% Pitchers didn't get the memo in time in 2011 to stop Ellsbury from being a power threat. He still saw 62 percent fastballs, good for #11 in the majors among qualified players. That's likely to change now that the league has had the off-season to see just what they did wrong against Ellsbury, but it's also not likely to stop his performance completely. The 2011 version of Ellsbury was one with a different approach. He attacked and succeeded at crushing pitches he had not had much luck with in the past, in a way that exceeded even the most optimistic of his old scouting reports.   Fangraphs' pitch value   data is not predictive, but it does tell a story of what happened. Prior to 2011, Ellsbury had produced -0.5 runs against fastballs. In 2011, he was at +31.4 against heaters. If that doesn't bump him out of the top 20 in fastballs seen, then the league deserves what's coming to them. Adjustments will only slow the tide, though, not stop it entirely, as Ellsbury has shown himself capable of driving just about anything thrown in his direction. If he "only" goes deep 20-25 times year instead of being a 30-plus homer threat, the Red Sox will find a way to accept him for who he is."
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]
    Very good information. And I think you are right to suggest that while more off-speed stuff to Ellsbury might put a small crimp in his power, it's not likely to reduce his overall effectiveness at the plate.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    Prove? What else does Ellsbury have to prove. He is, today, the best player in Big Leagure Baseball. He hits for average, he hits with power, he is one of the best center fielders in the game, AND HE STEALS BASES WITH THE BEST OF THEM!

    Prove? You need a new pair of glasses!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Heard all winter Ellsbury would command 8/$160, but aft seeing what Zimmerman signed for hard to see Ellsburys worth as more than Zimmermans? AAV for Zimmermans contract about $16.5 million. Personally, I am not in favor of negotiating with Ellsbury until he shows he can do it again this year. I am thinking 6/$90 might be Ellsbury range.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]

    rkarp,

    Zimmerman's deal with the Nationals has little to do with accessing Ellsbury value on the open market after next year. The issue is that Ells, not unlike Papelbon, has already made his intentions clear. That he and Boras are not looking to sign what has become the norm in the game. (young players still under the teams control, once they reach arb 2 or 3 status and prove that they're worthy investments, sign a long term extension with backloaded money that buyout a couple of years of free agency). It's not like the Sox aren't amenable to signing him, in fact they have already made multiple offers. Only to have Boras (Ells) decline. In the end, Ells is the one that carry's all the risk and if he can navigate the next two season, post All Star level numbers then he'll reap the reward in the winter of 2013...

    I get that many among us would like to see us sign Ells (count me among them), but it takes two too tango and there's little upside for the Sox to pay Ellsbury free market value, while he's still under the teams control. Which is exactly what it'll take to get him and Boras to even consider an offer. I'm pretty certain that of they made him an offer similar to Crawfords, it'll be difficult for He and Boras to pass.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Zimmerman contract and the effect on Ellsbury:
    [QUOTE]Line-up protection is largely a myth.  The addition of AGon didn't lead to an increase in fastballs to both Pedroia and Ellsbury, they both saw fewer.  I guess one could argue they would have seen even fewer, but I wouldn't. " http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/2/2839349/jacoby-ellsbury-curtis-granderson-2011-performances  Ellsbury's secret to success was specific, though. Pitchers used to kill him with fastballs inside and low, as he didn't have the patience, swing mechanics, or power to drive them. If pitchers needed Ellsbury to whiff or make weak contact, challenging him with a fastball -- and focusing it low and inside -- was the key. Ellsbury ranked #16 in the majors from 2007 through 2010 in percentage of fastballs seen with 65.8 percent, alongside the likes of players no one is going to confuse for power hitters: Rank Player FB% 1 David Eckstein 73% 2 Luis Castillo 72% 3 Jason Kendall 71% 4 Omar Vizquel 70% 5 Juan Pierre 69% 6 Nick Punto 69% 7 Jamey Carroll 69% 8 Alexi Casilla 69% 9 Scott Podsednik 67% 10 Chone Figgins 67% 11 Willy Taveras 67% 12 Denard Span 67% 13 Craig Counsell 67% 14 Maicer Izturis 66% 15 Placido Polanco 66% 16 Jacoby Ellsbury 65% Pitchers didn't get the memo in time in 2011 to stop Ellsbury from being a power threat. He still saw 62 percent fastballs, good for #11 in the majors among qualified players. That's likely to change now that the league has had the off-season to see just what they did wrong against Ellsbury, but it's also not likely to stop his performance completely. The 2011 version of Ellsbury was one with a different approach. He attacked and succeeded at crushing pitches he had not had much luck with in the past, in a way that exceeded even the most optimistic of his old scouting reports.   Fangraphs' pitch value   data is not predictive, but it does tell a story of what happened. Prior to 2011, Ellsbury had produced -0.5 runs against fastballs. In 2011, he was at +31.4 against heaters. If that doesn't bump him out of the top 20 in fastballs seen, then the league deserves what's coming to them. Adjustments will only slow the tide, though, not stop it entirely, as Ellsbury has shown himself capable of driving just about anything thrown in his direction. If he "only" goes deep 20-25 times year instead of being a 30-plus homer threat, the Red Sox will find a way to accept him for who he is."
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    Great analysis...

    Ellsbury's success last year is a testment to working hard in the cage to close a whole in his swing that was being exploited by big league pitchers. Which is why he "struggled" in 2008 and then started to show improvement by the second half of 2009. The book on him circa 2008 was get ahead early in the count then to expand the zone up and away to change his eye level, then pound him on the inner half with hard stuff. While last year was clearly a career year. The missing is a link in his progression from 2008 to the present. Is his lost season of 2010 due to the rib injury, so while many may look at last year as an abberation. I saw it as part of his maturation and natural progression as a hitter. He also made great strides in the outfield too, also a testment to his work ethic. So entering 2012 he's arrived in his prime with the tools to be a game changer and if he continues to post 30 homer-60 steal seasons while playing GG caliber outfield. He'll be a very rich man....
     
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