posted at 12/18/2007 11:44 PM EST
"Anyway, I don't understand the infactuation that everybody has with Cabrera. When ever there looks like a possibility that we can obtain him, Sox fans start salivating at the mouth. Sure, he was good the SHORT TIME that he was with us in 2004. But, that was 4 years ago. Get over it.
Okay, so maybe Lugo is getting over paid a bit. But, if you take away last year where Cabrera had a better than normal year, and Lugo had a worse than normal year, their numbers are pretty equal. Yet, most Sox fans would give their first born for this trade to happen. Lugo showed what kind of player he can be in the second half of last season, and should be much better for us this year.
Then on top of that you want trade Crisp as well who can be a major piece in either the Santana trade or another trade maybe involving some catcher help.
Either way, Cabrera isn't much better than Lugo. Plus his club house presence is in question as well. Yet everybody wants to get this guy at almost any cost. Makes no sense."
I agree with sddaj, who I recently learned is a dude.
Since the beginning of the 2004 season, Cabrera has a total of 314 Runs Created. Lugo has a total of 310 Runs Created. Cabrera's total FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) is 87; Lugo's is 78.
If you add up the offensive and defensive run contribtutions from each over a very good representative sample size of 4 year, Cabrera does have a slight edge - 401 to 388.
This means that over a 4-year stretch, Cabrera has been worth a grand total of 13 more runs than Lugo. This translates to 1 Pythagoean win in a 4 year strech. Big deal. Does that make it worth giving away another starting position play for this minimal upgrade? One win every 4 years?
On top of it all, the only reason Cabrera is even better is he is coming off a career-best season and Lugo is coming off a career worst. The totals of the RC + FRAR for the 2 players from 2004 through 2006 favors Lugo by a much wider margin - 318 to 277. This difference represents about 3 wins over 3 years, or 1 win per year. Much better.
The upgrade here is so small and Crisp can be better used elsewhere in a trade. This move is pretty much tantamount to cutting Crisp altogether and hoping for the best. The only way the Sox should even consdier this is if the White Sox throw something else useful back at them, (For instance, if we could work out a deal where we send Joe Crede to Anaheim for Juan Rivera.), then its worth thinking about.
Also, Cabrera is a free agent after this season. Then who's at SS in 2009? Should the Sox re-sign Cabrera, who will be 35 and might be looking for 4 years/$50mill? Do they continue the revolving door and hope Lowrie pans out? Do they listen to Soxway and deal Masterson for Arias?