1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dkindc. Show dkindc's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    He would be the first player ever in the Epstein era (I believe). What gives?

    ChrisHouse posted this in another thread:

    --------------

    From Jason Stark today:
    There's one more groundbreaking case on this list, and Papelbon is it. From every indication, Papelbon will wind up with the highest salary ever by a closer with three years of service time. The only mystery is: How much?

    [+] EnlargeJonathan Papelbon
    Gary A. Vasquez/US PresswireJonathan Papelbon knows how to celebrate a save. But will he celebrate his arbitration number?

    "This one perplexes me," one NL executive said. "This guy has been so good, and that team has such deep resources, I don't know what I'm missing. Why haven't they signed him? If you're trying to pick out the next Mariano Rivera, wouldn't it be him? Plus, he's a guy who he handles that whole Boston scene so well."

    All true. Yet this has the potential to be a tricky, maybe even explosive, case.

    Papelbon has spent the past three years willingly sacrificing himself for the greater good, allowing the Red Sox to define his role outside the boundaries of common modern-day closer ground rules. His 22 saves of four outs or more since 2006 rank second only to Rivera's, and his 35 appearances of four outs or more rank third among closers, behind Rivera and J.J. Putz.

    But now, in return, Papelbon is looking for a reward for his sacrifice, his workload and the toll that workload could take on his potential career longevity. The result is a philosophical difference about his value that the Red Sox haven't been able to resolve. You wouldn't think either side would want this to reach a hearing room. But follow this case carefully.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jerh5. Show jerh5's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Just a guess, but I think they are very worried about his long term health. With health, pitchers obviously are more risky than position players. with Paps, that risk is even higher.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from yagi. Show yagi's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    He deserves Rivera money at least. He is the main reason the Sox have won for the last few years.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from thawk1025. Show thawk1025's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Last few years is a lot different than the last decade + Rivera put up. I am a huge Pap fan but I still don't believe he is in Rivera company just yet.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from bigdog1. Show bigdog1's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    I THINK WE WILL GET HIM LOCKED UP, IT WILL TAKE REVERIA MONEY. THE ONLY THING THAT WE DON'T KNOW ID HIS LONG TERM HEALTH, MAYBE MANAGEMENT KNOW'S OR SEE'S SOMETHING THAT WE DON'T. COME ON PAPS COWBOY UP LIKE YOUK AND PEDERIOA.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Realistically, where do you (anyone reading this) see Papelbon in 3 years? How about 4 or 5? I think the Sox do not want to go beyond 3 years, and Papelbon, who IS still young, wants 4 - 6 years. That will be the hang up, not the money, IMO. And I (gut feeling) think the sox are right on this.

    Rivera is the exception to the rule. No one in the history of the game has had the kind of run (13 years and counting with ERA under 3.20) Rivera has had as a reliever. The norm is that a good reliever has about 5 or 6 good years, with another 4 or 5 so - so years mixed in.

    Papelbon has 3 stellar years in a row. Is he good for 5 more? That would put him in Mariano's league. For Papelbon to assume he is the next Rivera is presumptuous. For the Sox to assume he will lose his effectiveness before then (thus becoming a bad contract) is playing the overwhelming odds. Paps has been consistently less effective each year.

    If I am the GM, or owner, I want to see Papelbon bring his ERA back down under two in 2009 before thinking he can carry on for a few more years. And even then I would not want to go past 3 years at a time.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    [Quote]Just a guess, but I think they are very worried about his long term health. With health, pitchers obviously are more risky than position players. with Paps, that risk is even higher.[/Quote]

    My guess is that "very" worried is too strong a statement about the Sox' view, but there are certainly well-known concerns about his shoulder from three years ago, the Sox control him for three more years (until he is 30), and I think a neutral person would say Paps' performance has declined rather than improved since his astonishing rookie year in 2006.

    What's the better bet: Youkilis/Pefroia maintains their current level of performance for the next five years, or Papelbon does?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from javaukti. Show javaukti's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Smoltz' real value = mentor to Paps. He knows the transition from SP to closer and back very well. Sox plan to convert Paplebon back to the rotation after 2010 (i.e. when Becket is FA and signs $300 million 4 year contract w/yankees), and Bard is establishe for closer role.

    No?

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dabro. Show Dabro's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Im confused. Can someone confirm for me how many years more the Sox really control Paps? Is it three years? If so, there right to focus on Bay next, as he is the more immediate issue.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    I believe it is two more years, but I am no authority on this. What I do know is that Paps has 3 years and 2 months at the ML level.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dabro. Show Dabro's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Wiki says you need 6 years of ML service with the team that drafted you for free agency. So Paps is under our control for 09 and 10 for sure and maybe 11. Therefore it is absurd to sign him to a long term deal now. He is a reliever. He makes 80 appearances a year. It makes no sense to sign him now, none at all. Unless I am missing something, the only other player who we should address right now, before the start of the 09 season, is Bay. So we are in great shape. Most of the guys on our 40 man roster we have control of for multiple years.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    [Quote]Wiki says you need 6 years of ML service with the team that drafted you for free agency. So Paps is under our control for 09 and 10 for sure and maybe 11. Therefore it is absurd to sign him to a long term deal now. He is a reliever. He makes 80 appearances a year. It makes no sense to sign him now, none at all. Unless I am missing something, the only other player who we should address right now, before the start of the 09 season, is Bay. So we are in great shape. Most of the guys on our 40 man roster we have control of for multiple years.[/Quote]


    A sane voice, if ever I have heard one. (Though we can only wish he had 80 apperances a year...his most is 67, last year, and his average over the last 3 years is is 61.66.)
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from thawk1025. Show thawk1025's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    I agree 100%, it makes little to no sense to sign him right now when he will be under the Sox control for at least the next 2 years. A lot can happen in 2 years and pitchers can break down pretty quickly and out of nowhere.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxsux21. Show soxsux21's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    [Quote]...Rivera is the exception to the rule. No one in the history of the game has had the kind of run (13 years and counting with ERA under 3.20) Rivera has had as a reliever...

    Papelbon has 3 stellar years in a row...For the Sox to assume he will lose his effectiveness before then (thus becoming a bad contract) is playing the overwhelming odds...If I am the GM, or owner, I want to see Papelbon bring his ERA back down under two in 2009 before thinking he can carry on for a few more years.[/Quote]

    Rivera's career ERA is WELL below 3.2...it is actually a shade below 2.3 (maybe you just transposed a couple numbers).

    Theo, I believe, is a student of Moneyball, which generally dictates that you shouldn't spend alot on closers. Billy Beane routinely shops his closers in favor of better value from position players. But boston is not Oakland...they can afford a much bigger payroll, and my guess is that they will do what they can to keep papelbomb.

    jp has got a pretty big ego though... when the time comes, he will test the FA market. Much to his disappointment, i expect his best offer will come from the rs. (b/t/w - his era was less than 2 right up until the last game of last season...he let his guard down against the Yankees when the season was essentially over...they scored 3 off him in what should have been a tune-up for the playoffs.)
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dkindc. Show dkindc's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    I wonder if it actually comes to arbitration - if it will cause hard feelings - but I suppose he will pitch his heart out anyway.

    Last year of the hundreds of guys cases who had not signed before the arb deadline - only 8 actually were decided by an arbitrator. Only two won versus their club.


    "Players who still haven't settled with their teams will exchange figures Tuesday. In most years, more than half the players who file reach agreements before the swap of proposed salaries.

    Among the 110 players who filed last year, just eight went to hearings and clubs won six of those. The only players who won were Howard, the power-hitting Philadelphia first baseman who made $10 million, and New York Mets pitcher Oliver Perez ($6.5 million). Perez is now a free agent.

    The average increase for those who filed last year was 120 percent."

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3836744&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadline

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dkindc. Show dkindc's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    So Paps and the RS have until Tuesday to work it out, apparently.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Sox have his rights through the 2011 season. There is no rush, hard-throwing pitchers are always injury candidates.

    IF I were to propose an offer fair to Papelbon and the team it would be something like this:

    3 years 22.5 million, 3.5m player option for '12, 11.5 team option for '12, vesting after 175IP, a 13.5m team option '13 not vesting. That means if he keeps being a 35 save, under 2.00 ERA, top closer he gets 5 years 47.5 (9.5m per), or he can get 4 years 34m (8.5 per) or 3 years (7.5m per) or (player option) 4 yr 26m (6.5m per) if his arm falls off.

    Just my shot at playing GM/Agent and coming to a deal that is fair for both sides. Going through arbitration 3 straights years is bad for Paps b/c one injury might ruin his career/its not fun going year to year and its bad for the Sox if Paps doesn't give his all fearing injury or becomes angry at the FO. It's only smart for the Sox if Paps gets hurt and its only smart for Paps if he stays healthy and gets a big deal in 2011. A gamble for him.

    They should just meet in the middle. All 3 tedious arbitration years/mini contract years eliminated for 3 solid years of security for Paps, plus 2 options for healthy performance that covers the Sox backs in case of injury.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from billy13. Show billy13's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Papelbons refusal to use his other pitches strains his arm and he has been gassed at the end of the last two seasons. He is a young stud, and pitching 65 innings shouldnt be knocking him out. He was unavailable at times last year when we needed him. I think Masterson is a good candidate to be a closer. No need to sign a long term deal here. Lets extend Bay for similar contract to Youk, and focus on Jon Lester. Lets sign him. He is the real stud of our team right now. 232 innings worth a lot more than 65.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from sjddaj. Show sjddaj's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Nice posts from most everyone. Agreed, there is no rush on signing Paps, but this is also going to continue to add fuel to a fire that hasn't even started yet.

    Yes, Paps has been great, but he also seems to be a "me" type of player rather than a team type of player (as Pedroia and Youk have shown to be).

    Paps has already said that he would like to be the benchmark for closers when he signs his big deal (a comment from a "me" perspective). His "Irish Jig" shows more focusing attention on "him" rather than the the team. Also, the reason why he is so effective as a closer (even more so on the post season), because everything is focused on "him" and "him alone" when it come to the 9th inning of these games. Especailly the big games.

    So, couple his ego with the fact that his peers are being resigned to long term contracts and not him, can lead to ugliness.
    It would be great if he could just swallow his pride for a moment and show he just wants to play for the Sox like others have shown. But, I'm not sure that I can see that happening, as much as I would like to.


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    [Quote]

    When guys get paid triple this for being worthless you think Papelbon would really even consider such a deal, when he is actually worth the money! I dont think so.[/Quote]

    Yes well we shall see. Such a deal as I proposed/hope for would pay him around what he'd get in 3 years of arbitration and have option years that buy out his first 2 arbitration years at an avg. of 12.5m.

    K-Rod signed for 3 years 36m and is 4 years younger then Paps will be when he hits FA. If Paps blows out his arm in 2009/10 OR '11 he won't get the 3 years 22.5 or 4 year 26m over the next 3 arbitration years OR in Fa. So a deal that might look like a bargian now protects him against that. The security is what makes deals that and the ones Pedroia signed so valuable.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from OnDeckCircle. Show OnDeckCircle's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    [Quote]Nice posts from most everyone. Agreed, there is no rush on signing Paps, but this is also going to continue to add fuel to a fire that hasn't even started yet.

    Yes, Paps has been great, but he also seems to be a "me" type of player rather than a team type of player (as Pedroia and Youk have shown to be).

    Paps has already said that he would like to be the benchmark for closers when he signs his big deal (a comment from a "me" perspective). His "Irish Jig" shows more focusing attention on "him" rather than the the team. Also, the reason why he is so effective as a closer (even more so on the post season), because everything is focused on "him" and "him alone" when it come to the 9th inning of these games. Especailly the big games.

    So, couple his ego with the fact that his peers are being resigned to long term contracts and not him, can lead to ugliness.
    It would be great if he could just swallow his pride for a moment and show he just wants to play for the Sox like others have shown. But, I'm not sure that I can see that happening, as much as I would like to.


    [/Quote]
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from OnDeckCircle. Show OnDeckCircle's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    You're pretty close to being on target. No player loses in arbitration. The players that put up the bigger numbers always do extemely well as evidenced by Ryan Howard getting a $10M award for winning his case last year and he's likely to get even more with
    his arbitration case this year.
    In Papelbon's case it's a fine line. He'll win big with his case this year but a pitcher is almost always more of an injury risk than a position player. He has to decide if he should go for a secure contract of 3 years with the Sox buying into some free agency time or wait for his wish to set the standard for closer money exceeding Mariano Rivera's money.
    It's a risk that only he and his agent can decide.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from MorningWood. Show MorningWood's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    A couple of things to keep in mind.

    First, this is only the deadline for Pap to file for arbitration. His case is not being heard yet, therefore there is still time for the Sox to do something with him.

    Second, the Sox have been busy trying to sign Teixiera, and sign Pedroia and Youk. These are complex negotiations and take time, especially when Boras is involved in one of them.

    Rumor is out now that the Sox and Pap are negotiating a long term deal. No one appears to know the status at this point. We all know where Pap stands on his value, Mariano Money. I believe that the Sox went to the guys they thought would be reasonable first, Pedroia and Youk, and now they will try to hammer out a deal with the guy that will probably take the most time to deal with. And they may not even get a deal with him. Sox went at this the right way. They still may not sign him, but I believe they have approached this the right way, as they have Daniel Bard throwing 100mph heat in the minors.

    Go Sox!!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from harv53. Show harv53's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Papelbon cannot continue to be effective throwing nothing but fastballs. We saw some of that last year in blown saves. Plus, he had lost some velocity as well.
    He needs to develop a change-up and learn to have better control of the split.

    He will probably do well in arbitration, but a little humility would do him good.....he's much too cocky.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from COSTANZA. Show COSTANZA's posts

    Paplebon to arbitration?

    Papelbon was called up towards the end of the 2005 season. He is arbitration eligible after 4 years (after the end of 2009 season).

    I expect the Sox to make an offer to him be the end of this season.

     

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