Local hiring outlook: weathering the storm

By Mary Helen Gillespie, 8/21/06

It appears that the temperature outdoors isn't the only thing cooling down. Recent reports show that the U.S. economy - squeezed by energy costs and grumpy consumers -- is feeling a bit of a chill. So what would be the impact on hiring for the remainder of the year? My forecast is that around these parts, we're going to weather the storm.

Here's why: In doodling around on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Internet site, there's a nugget of news that between now and 2014, overall U.S. employment growth is expected to be focused on the service-providing sector of the economy.

According to the bureau's 2006-2007 Career Guide to Industries: "Within the service-providing sector, two industry groups are expected to account for half of all wage and salary employment growth in the economy: education and health services; and professional and business services."

Welcome to Boston, home of the bean and the cod. And, thank God, also to higher education, health care and that funky little thing known as intellectual capital that churns out the beancounters and the rest of the merry gang of highly skilled workers.

Now, under the umbrella of these two industry groups is a range of what the bureau says are the 30 hottest jobs between 2004 and 2014. These positions vary from home-health aides that require short-term on-the-job training to systems analysts with bachelor degrees to medical scientists with biotech doctorates. By the way, home-health aides are No. 1 on the fastest-growing list as those baby boomers start to reach the time in their lives when they are going to need help changing their Rolling Stone T-shirts.

Further, the most recent hiring survey data out of the Northeast Human Resources Association (aka NEHRA), the region's largest HR trade group, found that 65% of a sizable sample of area employers, both small and large, expect to grow their full-time workforce over the next year. That's pretty hard evidence to dispute.

So those are the numbers supporting my analysis. Then there's on-the-ground research, which basically consists of two data elements:

• 1) Big increase in local business buzz about organizations ready to hire the right people right now. Everybody's networking, despite the usual slowdown in the dog days of summer. If it's like this now, it is extremely likely that the environment will continue through the end of the year.
• 2) Huge rise in the number of congratulatory lunches, dinner and other forms of celebrations that I've been enjoying in the last month for friends and colleagues who have "transitioned" into their dream jobs with new employers. And these positions are all in the twin service industries plucked by the experts in Washington as the fields that are most likely to hire.

But here's the money shot: Even our beloved cleaning lady says she is suddenly swamped with new customers, showing the trickle-down effect as more families realize that outsourcing the vacuuming is a much better use of their time and their money as they try to balance work/life pressures. Mary is certainly a service-provider and qualifies in my book as a self-employed professional woman who gets to wear yellow rubber gloves at work every day instead of pantyhose and contact lenses. If I didn't hate housecleaning so much, I'd be considering a little transition of my own.

Anyway, having done the quantitative and qualitative research, I stand by my forecast that Q4 hiring will be solid. Of course, the other side to this coin is how hiring managers will retain the talent they already have. Again, the bureau has the answer: The number-one retention tool is on-the-job training and/or employer-sponsored education. And not the bogus stuff about enhancing one's inner leader to thereby contribute more to the overall team. This requires real-life performance development opportunities that help an employee do his or her job and show that the organization is willing to invest and reward their efforts.

What executives need to overhear is water-cooler chat with a staff member gushing about "this wicked cool class the company is sending me to." We all know that doesn't happen enough and it should.

The Boston business cycle has been more robust. We've seen a lot of jobs as well as a lot of smart people leave the area. Some of those folks left because they couldn't find their dream job here. Others left because they were through shoveling snow.

Those of us who remain need to be mindful of how often we hear ourselves and others say "This is a really great place to work." If we are not hearing it and if we are not saying it, then we all know what is coming down the pike: more celebrations as disgruntled employees take a hike.

But for the foreseeable future, we should weather any larger economic storms. And you can quote me on that.

Mary Helen Gillespie is president of Gillespie Interactive, strategic management consultancy. E-mail her Savvy Manager thoughts at maryhelen@bostonworks.com.