Negotiations get tense, draft accords circulate

By Beth Daley, Globe Staff

COPENHAGEN -- As President Obama engaged in tense negotiations with world leaders tonight, leaked draft climate deals with strikingly different language circulated throughout the Bella Center where talks are being held.

The Boston Globe, like many media outlets, has been leaked several draft texts but it is unclear what the most current is. The most recent one the Globe received removed a 2010 deadline for countries to strike a binding deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet the Associated Press reported soon after that another draft had the date in it. 

What is certain is the drafts will change again. At 9 p.m. Copenhagen time, there is no end in sight as the leaders of more than 110 country remain behind closed doors in hopes of salvaging a deal that will set the world on a path to limit the increase in average global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in order to avoid the worst consequences of manmade climate change.

"It's always fluid," at the end of such meetings, said Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists, a close observer of climate summits. "Especially this one, with heads of state here."

The draft texts, and their shifting language on targets and timetables, underscore the enormous trouble in getting even the most basic statement approved by more than 190 nations. Every single word must be approved by all countries, and as a result, language is often watered down.

Obama, after arriving in the frigid Danish capital this morning, immediately postponed a speech to world leaders and went into closed door meetings with about 20 countries' heads of state -- with the notable exception of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, a snub, although the vice minister of foreign affairs, He Yafei, was there.

Obama and Jiabao later met over one of the accord’s major outstanding issues: Whether China will submit to international monitoring of its voluntary emissions-reduction goal.

In a speech to heads of state, Jiabao said his country, at great effort, had committed to reducing carbon intensity -- the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of production -- 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. China says the foundation language of the Copenhagen negotiations does not require developing countries to submit to binding emissions targets that are regulated by the international community.

"We will honor our word with real action," Wen said. He said China was doing it "with a sense of responsibility" to Chinese residents "and all mankind."

But Obama said after his arrival that any agreement would be "empty words on a page" and a "hollow victory" unless countries knew whether each other was meeting emission goals. But he offered a hint of movement.

"These measures need not be intrusive or infringe upon sovereignty," Obama said.

Still, despite enormous pessimism at a US State Department briefing earlier today, many participants and observers continued to think a deal would be struck. However, even if it is, it may not be tonight. Many officials were told negotiations might stretch into tomorrow and even Sunday.

"I’m hopeful," said Massachusetts Congressman Edward Markey, who is attending the last days of the summit. Markey co-authored climate change legislation that passed the House in June, and he met with Obama earlier today.

"The President told me how committed he is (to get) a final agreement," Markey said.

Going into the talks, it was known a binding treaty was unlikely: The United States has not passed domestic legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which other countries want to see before they commit to stringent reductions. While expectations of a binding climate treaty were dashed months ago, no one anticipated the difficulty or divisions here that have made getting a political agreement to move forward so challenging.

Robert Stavins, director of Harvard University’s Environmental Economics Program and a climate treaty expert, said it would be unfortunate if the "agreement turned out to be the Kyoto Protocol on steroids," meaning there would be a declared victory but no real mechanism to reduce emissions from all countries.

Still, he said, "until we see the final outcome in Copenhagen, I will remain cautiously optimistic, because at least some of the key nations, including the United States, appear to be more interested in real progress than in symbolic action."