The official stopped short of saying the video message, which was broadcast on Iraqi television Friday, provided conclusive proof he was still alive and in command of the Iraqi regime.

But Saddam's reference to a villager shooting down a U.S. AH-64D Apache Longbow helicopter matched claims by other Iraqi officials, which first aired hours after the March 23 downing of an Apache in battle south of Baghdad.

In his address, Saddam said, among other things, "Perhaps you remember the valiant Iraqi peasant and how he shot down an American Apache with an old weapon."

Iraq claimed downing two helicopters that day but U.S. military officials said only one was lost. Whether the helicopter went down to hostile fire or a mechanical failure is unclear.

The two crew members were taken prisoner by Iraqis, and their pictures later aired on Iraqi television.

Iraqi television has broadcast a number of speeches and messages from Saddam since March 20, when U.S. forces opened the war by striking at a residential compound where Saddam was believed to be sleeping.

But none of those messages contained the kind of specific references -- akin to holding up that day's newspaper -- that would confirm they were recorded after the war began. Intelligence officials said they had some information that Saddam prerecorded a number of speeches to air during the war.

The intelligence official, discussing the situation only on grounds of anonymity, said it was possible that even Friday's speech -- including a precognitive reference to a downed helicopter -- was recorded before the war, but acknowledged it was more likely recorded since March 23.

The whereabouts of Saddam and his sons, also key players in the Iraqi regime, are unknown to U.S. intelligence.

In the speech, Saddam also described the U.S. war strategy of bypassing most Iraqi towns and military units to bore straight in on Baghdad. But that strategy was not difficult to envision, even before the war, the intelligence official said.

On Thursday, a U.S. defense official speaking on the condition of anonymity said some military intelligence analysts have concluded that all of Saddam's television appearances since the beginning of the war in Iraq were prerecorded, most likely before the fighting started. But the CIA said it had made no such determination.

The defense official said that an in-depth analysis of various aspects of the video images has led some analysts to believe the tapes were recorded before the war. The official declined to provide details.

But the CIA, which has analysts with long experience of studying speeches and appearances by foreign leaders, previously had no conclusive information that suggests when the videotapes were made, officials said. It is possible, but not certain, that they were recorded before the war, they said.

The difference in the military and CIA assessments underscores how many eyes, from a number of government agencies, are trying to determine the status of Iraq's president.

Previously, the most puzzling videotape was the one that aired hours after the strike on Saddam's compound. In it, an unusually disheveled Saddam appeared on Iraqi television, reading what appeared to be an impromptu speech from a pad. But nothing in the speech proved that it was not prerecorded.

Recent statements from some Bush administration officials also appear to be attempts to goad Saddam into showing himself.