Thursday, 4:30 PM
Gubernatorial hopefuls clash tonight in 6 p.m. debate
By Andrew Ryan, Globe Correspondent
When Deval L. Patrick and Kerry Healey face off in their first gubernatorial debate tonight, two fresh thoughts may be lurking in the back of the candidates' minds.
First, a poll released today by Merrimack College found Patrick still surging after last week's Democratic primary, riding a 33-point lead. While pollsters often see a bounce after a primary win, it was the second survey since Patrick captured the nomination that gave the former federal prosecutor more than a two-to-one advantage over the Republican lieutenant general.
Second, a report published today by a non-partisan tax watchdog group concluded that the state's "fiscal reality" may make it hard to keep campaign promises. "The governor, whoever he or she is, will be facing tight budgets and limited opportunity for major spending initiatives and tax reductions," said Michael Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation.
Tonight's 6 p.m. debate, sponsored by FOX25 and the Boston Herald, is the first of four scheduled face-offs between Patrick, Healey, independent Christy Mihos, and Grace Ross, the choice of the Green-Rainbow Party.
The Merrimack poll by the Center for Public Opinion Research surveyed 505 people by telephone from Sept. 20-24. It found that Patrick had the support of 54.2 percent of those surveyed compared to Healey's 20.9 percent, with a margin of error just under 5 percent. While those figures are down from a CBS4 Fast Track poll last week that gave Patrick a 39-point lead, the Democrat still led by a wide margin.
"Obviously you expect a bump out of the primary, but was a bigger number than I expected to see," said Russell Mayer, an associate professor of political science at Merrimack College who oversaw the poll.
Of particular note was Patrick's performance among the independent voters that have helped elected Massachusetts’ string of Republican governors, Mayer said. The Democrat scored 46 points among unenrolled voters, compared to Healey’s 18 points.
Mihos, a former Republican, won the support of 5 percent of those surveyed, with Ross gaining the support of fewer than 2 percent. Roughly 19.1 percent of respondents were undecided.
While polls will fluctuate in the six weeks before Election Day on Nov. 7, Widmer said the conclusion of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation is an issue that none of the candidates can escape.
"I think it's very difficult for campaigns to address fiscal realities," Widmer said. "There have been widespread claims of a billion dollar surplus, which is not the case."
Looking at a Healey proposal, for example, Widmer said that an income tax rollback from 5.3 percent to 5 percent would cost the state $700 million a year it does not have. Patrick's initiatives face a similar fate, Widmer said.
"I think when he or she takes office, reality will hit," Widmer said. "They will probably be dismayed to find out how tight their budgets are."
