Well-advised on Iran
1/3/2004
THERE HAVE been heartening signs lately that realists are winning the argument within the Bush administration over US policy toward Iran. Instead of a policy that starts and stops with the goal of regime change in Tehran, the realists would explore the possibilities for dialogue and cooperation in areas of mutual interest. "There are things happening, and therefore we should keep open the possibility of dialogue at an appropriate point in the future," Secretary of State Colin Powell told The Washington Post earlier this week after 83 US relief workers traveled to the stricken Iranian city of Bam to help victims of the earthquake. Powell attributed the new developments and the opportunity for dialogue they herald to "a new attitude in Iran."
Some indications of this new attitude have been overt; others have taken place in the wings. The most obvious has been Iran's acceptance of international demands that it permit intrusive inspections of its nuclear sites and suspend its enrichment of uranium.
Tehran was forced to accede to these demands after the Iranian opposition group the People's Mujahedeen of Iran revealed the existence of hidden sites for producing fissile material that could be use to produce nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, a verifiable arrangement to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons would remove a crucial impediment to a dialogue with Washington.
Less noticed were meetings that Iran's President Mohammad Khatami held in the last few months with Jordan's King Abdullah and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. These meetings were significant in several ways. They indicate an Iranian desire to seek, in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein's removal, normalized relations with Arab countries that had supported Saddam in his eight-year war (from 1980 to 1988) against Iran. Moreover, Jordan and Egypt are the two Arab countries that maintain peace treaties with Israel. One apparent outcome of those meetings is that Jordan's Abdullah has since urged President Bush to conduct talks with the Iranians.
The regional stakes are evident to all. Both Jordan and Egypt have good reason to be concerned about what may happen in Iraq and would like assurances that Iran will not try to determine the political shape of the new Iraq. Mubarak and Abdullah want regional stability. They do not want Iran to provoke in Iraq a replay of the catastrophic civil war that ruined Lebanon and left it a helpless vassal of the Ba'athist regime in Syria.
Bush must now walk a fine line with Iran. He has to find a way to deal with a regime that is despised by most Iranians without helping the mullahs prolong their misrule. But if cooperation is properly handled, there may be great benefits for Americans, Iranians, and most of their neighbors.
© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
