Planning for peace
1/12/2004
A NATION'S birthrate isn't the first thing that comes to mind when predicting whether a country is likely to be at war. But associations between bloody civil conflict and the poverty, youth, and instability linked to population surges are more than just coincidental. If recent data hold true, leaders may come to see that smaller, healthier, better-educated families are not just a moral imperative but a security enhancement for the world. A United Nations summit held in Cairo in 1994 redefined population issues in developing countries. No longer simply about "birth control," the goal of sustainable populations came to be seen as part of a web of related issues, including quality health care, lower infant mortality rates, education, and economic development. Even then, officials saw that the financial and social pressures on countries with burgeoning populations could provoke civil unrest.
But a new report by the nongovernmental organization Population Action International traced these trends in more than 140 countries and found striking correlations. "The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict after the Cold War" found that four factors predispose a nation to revolution, insurgency, terrorism, or other civil conflict. They are a high population of men aged 15 to 29, rapidly growing urban centers, a scarcity of water and cropland, and -- less clearly, since the data are relatively new -- a high incidence of HIV/AIDS. All of these conditions are exacerbated in countries without adequate family planning and reproductive health services. Poverty alone was not a driving factor.
The report found the highest potential for civil conflict in countries with at least three of the risk factors. "Eastern Africa is really worrisome," said Robert Engelman, the study's coauthor. Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Malawi are all in extreme demographic stress, though Yemen, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Middle East are also at high risk.
The flip side of the equation is just as striking. The group examined 20 countries -- from Thailand to Costa Rica -- that have achieved more stable populations by increasing access to reproductive health care and education among girls. These countries are farther along the demographic transition from high birthrates to fewer births and longer life expectancies, and they are far less likely to be embroiled in civil strife.
The rising numbers of civil conflicts in the last decades have brought unspeakable anguish. Illegal narcotics trade, kidnapping, extortion, and child soldiers are all employed to support these internal wars. The report was written with input from Washington's security community, but its recommendations seek to enlist diplomats and intelligence experts in nontraditional areas, such as advocating for family planning and HIV prevention. It could put a powerful new coalition to work on global healing.
© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
