Lebanon's fragility
IF AN ENTIRE country can be compared to the proverbial canary in a mineshaft, Lebanon is that country. Lebanon's curse is to be treated by its neighbors as a staging area for proxy wars and a target for political meddling. So there should be no room for naivete about the regional and international implications of the current governmental crisis in Lebanon -- a crisis created by this week's resignation from the Cabinet of five ministers from the Shi'ite movements Hezbollah and Amal and one minister loyal to the Syrian protege, President Emile Lahoud.
Despite their denials, it is obvious that the pro-Syrian ministers quitting the government were part of a last-minute effort to thwart authorization of an international tribunal to try suspects for the February 2005 murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri opposed Syrian ruler Bashar Assad's forced change in the Lebanese constitution to extend the presidential term of the Syrian puppet, Lahoud. Hariri's killing sparked a popular movement uniting his fellow Sunni Muslims with Druze and Christians in a successful campaign to end Syria's de facto colonization of Lebanon.
An initial United Nations report on the Hariri murder incriminated top Syrian officials and Lebanese security chiefs who served during Syria's occupation of Lebanon. Hariri's son, Saad Hariri, leader of an anti-Syrian political bloc that maintains a majority in Lebanon's Parliament, has left no doubt about the reason Hezbollah and its allies resigned after being rebuffed in their demand for an effective veto over government decisions. Their aim was to shield "a well-known murderous regime," the son explained.
The nasty truth, however, is that Syria is not the only foreign meddler in Lebanon. Last summer's war on Lebanese soil between Israel and Hezbollah was commonly perceived in the region as an ominous proxy battle between Iran and the United States. But the Bush administration's attempt to assist Israel by deliberately delaying adoption of a cease-fire resolution in the UN Security Council weakened Lebanon's anti-Syrian governing coalition politically -- the same government the administration had been commending as a rare success in its campaign to democratize the nations of the Middle East.
Today, as US policymakers contemplate striking deals with Syria and Iran to facilitate an exit strategy in the Iraq war, they must resist any temptation to trade away support for Lebanon's independence. If the diverse communities of Lebanon are condemned to another civil war or a foreign master, it will be another betrayal by false friends. And Lebanon's ensuing disintegration will be felt in the region as a tremor foreshadowing a more general collapse of the Mideast mineshaft.
