Bringing Iran around

IRAN HAS been issuing seemingly contradictory statements about its nuclear program. But they include hints thatthe current international campaign to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table may be taking effect -- that a diplomatic solution, guaranteeing Iran's access to nuclear energy for peaceful uses but barring its development of nuclear weapons, is still achievable.

Last week, Iran's preening President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Iran is now enriching nuclear fuel on an industrial scale, a claim that International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohammed ElBaradei discounted. Ahmadinejad warned foreign powers to stop trying to put pressure on Iran to suspend its enrichment of uranium and to accept that Iran's nuclear program is "irreversible."

Striking a markedly different pose, the head of Iran's Supreme Security Council and lead nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, declared: "Today, with the nuclear fuel cycle complete, we are ready to begin real negotiations with the aim of reaching an understanding."

Iran's rulers are not about to admit they seriously miscalculated the international unity that Iran's breach of IAEA obligations has produced. Russia and China have joined the United States and the Europeans in voting for two unanimously approved sanction resolutions in the Security Council.

Though mild, these sanctions target individuals and entities involved in the nuclear program. They make it extremely difficult for Iran to purchase abroad the specialized pumps, valves, and piping Iranian engineers need to achieve the regime's declared goal of assembling 50,000 centrifuges able to enrich uranium on a truly industrial scale.

Also, the US Treasury Department has persuaded international banks to cease doing business with Iran and governments to stop providing credits for commerce with Iran. These measures are beginning to have a devastating effect on the Iranian economy.

It would be consistent with Iran's triumphalist playbook to declare victory over arrogant foreigners at the very moment it is preparing to cut a deal that could bring it the civil nuclear energy it wants and the economic help it needs in exchange for a verifiable accord not to pursue nuclear weapons. There are various technical arrangements that could satisfy Iran's legitimate desire for nuclear fuel to run power plants -- if there is the political will in Tehran to strike a deal.

Iran is now facing a stark choice between isolation and cooperation because factions of the Bush administration that favor consensus-building and patient diplomacy have had their way on the Iran dossier. The hard-liners who believe in standing on the sidelines and shouting about an axis of evil have proved that their kind of statecraft goes nowhere.