The coming thaw in the Mideast
IT WOULD be hard to miss recent signs that some of the glaciers in Mideast diplomacy are starting to melt. The signs suggest that regional actors as well as the Bush administration grasp the need, and perhaps the urgency, of getting negotiations started on a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
At present, the moves are only preliminary stirrings. The next steps will require political fortitude from Israeli and Palestinian leaders, President Bush, and the kings and presidents of the Arab states.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a subtle but telling gesture in the right direction earlier this week when she dropped in on a meeting at the State Department between the respected Palestinian finance minister Salam Fayyad and Assistant Secretary of State David Welch. She thus overrode a previous ban on contact with all members of a Palestinian government that now includes ministers from President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement, Hamas members, and some independents acceptable to both the nationalist and Islamist factions. The meeting was a departure from Israeli policy and also from what had been administration policy.
They discussed "regulatory" changes that would allow international donor funds to be deposited in PLO accounts managed by former World Bank official Fayyad, a way of meeting some of the dire needs of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank without violating the US ban on direct aid to a government that includes Hamas. This is not only a humanitarian necessity; it is also a move that could presage negotiations with Abbas and other non-Hamas members of the elected Palestinian government.
At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was confirming that there has been a significant decrease in the number of rockets fired into Israel from Gaza. This is the result of an effort by Abbas to persuade the militant group Islamic Jihad to observe a "tadiyah," or calm, in coming days. In a recent meeting with Olmert, Abbas had said he would strive for such a calm, to clear the way for Olmert to ease travel restrictions on Palestinians in the West Bank. Preparing for a trip to Europe, Abbas may also want to show European officials that the Palestinian Authority can do its part in creating the proper conditions for historic peace negotiations.
Equally promising, Arab League foreign ministers sought, through Egypt and Jordan, to persuade Israel to consider the Arab League initiative offering peace with all the Arab states if Israel withdraws from territory captured in 1967. The aim, said Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, was to "initiate direct talks with Israel, call on the Israeli government and all Israelis to accept the Arab peace initiative, and to take this chance to resume direct and serious talks on all levels."
It is no secret that the present opportunity for a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict arises from two disparate threats: Iran's ascendancy in the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq and the ambition of Al Qaeda and other jihadist bands to topple established Arab regimes. This dual anxiety is leading to a recognition of common interests among the Arab states, Israel, the United States, and the Palestinians. But without the political will to make the compromises needed for a negotiated two-state peace agreement, the current thaw will enter history as one more missed opportunity to resolve a conflict that endangers Israelis, Palestinians, and all their neighbors.
