The strike they can't afford

THE STRIKE against General Motors ought to end quickly, and the company can make that happen with a concession on job security. But the United Auto Workers has to realize that any victory in current talks will be temporary, and that job losses are inevitable as General Motors spreads its work across the globe in an attempt to stay in business.

A temporary GM concession on jobs would be justified now because the union has agreed to lift the burden of retiree health costs from the company. In exchange for a payment of as much as $30 billion, the union will assume these costs by itself. The company will then be freed from an enormous cost disadvantage against its rivals in Japan and Europe, where governments pick up healthcare costs. It would be better if the US government had a national health program to do the same, but the industry can't count on that.

Assuming these costs would have been an unthinkable concession for the UAW more than a generation ago, when 400,000 GM workers were members, the union now recognizes that the company can't sustain this burden. In return, the 73,000 UAW members now at GM can't be blamed for seeking assurances that they will keep their jobs.

Americans sometimes wax nostalgic for the days of US auto dominance. But over the last 30 years, most buyers have put money on the vehicles that best fit their lifestyle and budget, no matter where they are made. GM and the rest of the automobile industry, including the union, held on too long to the old model of doing business. Now it's too late to indulge in recriminations, and the slide in the share of the workforce devoted to automaking may never be reversed.

The strike can last a week or two without doing damage, but beyond that it erodes union reserves and upsets the company plan to unveil new models. GM has high hopes for the redesigned Chevrolet Malibu, a name that harkens to the 1960s, but the company didn't have to compete then with the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Hyundai Sonata, or the Kia Optima. The company has to focus singlemindedly on selling cars.

For the longer term, the union will have to accept a further decline in its GM workforce. Twenty-thousand of the 73,000 workers are near retirement, and these people ought to be encouraged to leave the company.

The era of the automobile in the American economy began when Henry Ford introduced the Model T in 1908, and reached its zenith when General Motors enjoyed a 50 percent market share in the 1960s. The United Auto Workers was essential to ensure that the enormous revenues generated by the industry were shared throughout the workforce. Americans today can be grateful that the economy is strong enough to survive the decline of the industry, and hope that other forces arise to supplement the UAW as a protector of workers.