Turkish threat

TURKEY HAS massed about 100,000 troops along the border with Iraqi Kurdistan and is threatening to attack the mountain sanctuaries of Kurdish guerrillas, known as the PKK, who have been killing soldiers and civilians in southeastern Turkey. Turkish officials have said they will not make a decision about crossing the border until after Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meets with President Bush today at the White House.

Bush should stress that a Turkish military operation in northern Iraq would be calamitous for all parties. To avoid such a calamity, the leaders involved will have to make compromises and settle for the lesser evil.

It is an open secret that the PKK wants to provoke Turkey into invading northern Iraq. PKK fighters are dug into caves high on Kandil Mountain near the border with Iran, and the snow that starts falling there in November makes their hideouts less accessible than ever. The group's goal is to bring Turkey into confrontation not only with the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, but also with the United States.

A rational assessment of Turkey's interests should persuade Erdogan and his colleagues to avoid stumbling into the PKK's trap. A cross-border incursion would not solve the problem of PKK violence. It would inflame nationalistic passions among the Kurds living in the poor and ill-served region of southeastern Turkey. And an impulsive Turkish military intervention that added to the violent chaos of Iraq could only harm Ankara's relations with Washington.

Last but not least, if Turkish troops invaded Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey's chances of being accepted into the European Union would be reduced to nil for the foreseeable future.

Unfortunately, rationality is up against paranoia and national pride - not only in the minds of Turkey's civilian and military leaders, but also within the leadership of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. Its president, Massoud Barzani, said recently that a Turkish invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan would mean war. The PKK, he said "is just an excuse" for Turkish leaders "whose real target is the Kurdistan region" of Iraq. Barzani's assumption is that Turkey would like to thwart progress in the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq out of a fear that its success will inevitably cause Kurds in Turkey to seek a similar status.

Bush should use American influence with Barzani to have him press PKK leaders to accept an extended cease-fire with Turkey. And Erdogan should be prodded to use that cease-fire to promote economic development and extend linguistic and cultural rights for Kurds in southeastern Turkey. At some point, Turkey will also need to offer amnesty to PKK leaders willing to put down their weapons and be repatriated. These would be rational ways to avoid another regional disaster.