Russia's role in securing NATO's flank

By Mark Brzezinski and Mark Lenzi, 9/14/2003

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin visits the United States later this month. In anticipation of this visit, the Bush administration needs to review comprehensively the priorities and objectives that have guided US policy toward Russia over the last two years. Indeed, it was the Cox Commission Report on US Policy Towards Russia, published in September 2000, that urged the Clinton administration to "avoid exaggeration of success and concealment of failure in US-Russia relations." Specifically, President Bush needs to convey to Russia's leadership that Washington will hold the Kremlin accountable for the ominous security threats that are developing between NATO's eastern border and Russia.

Topping the list for the Bush administration should be a candid discussion with Putin about Russia's proxy state of Belarus -- a country that will soon border three NATO members. Moscow has overwhelming political and economic leverage over Belarus.

Despite Putin's alleged commitment to democratization and modernization in the area constituting the former Soviet bloc, Belarus remains a dictatorship and has become a dangerous supporter of rogue nations around the world. Belarus not only provided covert military assistance to Iraq directly before the war, but continues to sell its impressive stockpile of advanced weapons to six of the seven countries on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism -- countries such as North Korea, Syria, and Iran.

Besides being one of the most politically isolated and dangerous countries in the world, Belarus is also one of the most militarized. It is run by a combative and authoritarian dictator, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, who vehemently opposes integration of Central Europe with the trans-Atlantic community. These facts alone should cause the Bush administration to stress its concern about Belarus with the highest levels of Russian leadership.

Another point of discussion should be Kaliningrad, the tiny but strategically vital Russian enclave that will be surrounded entirely by NATO members in one year. Kaliningrad also poses numerous daunting security challenges that the Bush administration must address with Moscow -- issues such as the reported presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, rampant organized crime, and the highest HIV rate in Europe. With the expansion of NATO into the Baltic states, threats posed by Kaliningrad are not marginal issues but now exist literally close to the center of the alliance.

Unfortunately, Belarus and Kaliningrad are not the only challenges in the Near Abroad for NATO. To the east of new invitee Romania is the fledgling state of Moldova -- Europe's last communist regime and its poorest country. Moldova's volatile Transdniester region presents NATO with a specific challenge -- it is a Russian protectorate where more than 2,000 Russian soldiers remain deployed under the pretext of preventing another civil war that ravaged the country a decade ago.

Besides being a haven for arms smuggling and organized crime, the Transdniester region serves as an export hub to the Balkans and Western Europe for a variety of criminal activities, including trafficking in narcotics and human beings.

While the Bush administration's overwhelming attention is on a postwar Iraq, the Kremlin continues to oversee Kaliningrad's backward steps into instability while propping up Belarus and Transdniester to serve as buffer zones against an expanding NATO. Without more attention from Washington, this region faces the distinct possibility of becoming even more of a dangerous political backwater and security vacuum -- directly threatening not only Europe but becoming the next hotspot the United States may be called upon to deal with.

The Bush administration must demonstrate an increased level of commitment to enhancing the political stability and democratic development in the worrisome region between an expanded NATO and Russia. To effectively accomplish this, the Bush administration has to make it clear at this month's summit that Moscow will be held accountable for its actions in the region and that Washington will no longer tolerate the deteriorating -- and increasingly dangerous -- status quo directly on NATO's border.

Mark Brzezinski, a Washington attorney, served as director for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia during the Clinton administration. Mark Lenzi, author of the forthcoming book "Lost Civilization: The Repression of Civil Society in Eastern Europe," is a former Peace Corps volunteer and State Department fellow in Central Europe.