Kerry's last stand

PORTSMOUTH, N.H.

THIS IS WHERE John Kerry can exceed expectations, defy pollsters and pundits, and beat former Vermont governor Howard Dean on primary day.

With Al Gore endorsing Dean, retail politics is all Kerry has left.

He can't change the direction of his campaign by using expletives to describe President Bush's handling of the Iraq war, as he opted to do in an interview with Rolling Stone magazine. And anyway, how does it make sense to blame Bush for failing to provide resources for soldiers in Iraq when Kerry voted to authorize war and then voted against the $87 billion package that would provide some of those resources? He can't reverse his fortunes by blaming Dean for pushing Democrats to the left on war. Kerry must sell Kerry. The tough sell, so far, is his own doing. Now, For better or worse, person-to-person marketing is his last, best hope,

There is a mixture of fight and bemusement in his eyes as he stands outside a Market Basket in Portsmouth early Friday evening. "I need your help," he tells shoppers who are corralled by aides and encouraged to "meet the senator," as they emerge from the supermarket. Their carts are piled high with the necessities of life, gathered in anticipation of the season's first big snowstorm: milk, beer, and toilet paper. These are busy people on a mission, anxious to get home before snow falls. But more than a few are interested enough to shake the hand of the tall man with the tanned face, perfect gray hair, and fine wool overcoat.

"Four weeks old?" he asks a young mother standing beside a baby carriage which holds a tiny infant. His guess is exactly, impressively, correct. Quickly, he directs mother and child into the warm store and out of the frosty, December air. For sure, the candidate knows how cold it is. The overcoat, so soft to the eye, it begs to be stroked, looks elegant, not warm. A scarf, gray and delicate as a winter cloud, is a fashion statement, not a weapon against the chill. To gaze at the sleek, scuff-free shoes hugging his feet is to think: what delicious, fine black leather; gosh, your toes must be freezing!

"What is your biggest issue?" he asks those who step up to him. "Bush," answers one woman. "I'm the guy who can beat Bush," Kerry answers. "Probably," she counters. "Probably? What do you mean, probably?" he responds. "How do I persuade you?"

The war in Iraq in this woman's real issue. She is against it, and supports Dean, the candidate now leading New Hampshire polls. "We've got a plan for how we're going to deal with it," Kerry tells her. As she walks off, he continues talking: "I'm going to get your support. You're going to listen to me."

Dean has his detractors, too. "I do not like him," another woman tells Kerry.

Near the end of this meet-and-greet, the senator picks up a small boy and carries him into the "Real Deal Express." As a political moment, it is a two-fer. The child is fascinated by the huge bus that is hauling Kerry around New Hampshire, and the candidate gets to warm himself inside. At this moment, schmoozing a New Hampshire resident who is not old enough to vote, Kerry is at his best. There is no forced-sounding effort to be everyman, such as when he tells one young man, "Hope I can earn your vote, man."

In response to questions about insurance or war, Kerry tells voters he has a plan. He needs something more. A senator with a plan, even a very smart senator with very good plans, cannot beat Dean in New Hampshire. He may not even be able to beat retired general Wesley Clark.

The night before this New Hampshire stop, at a holiday party in Boston, Kerry supporters like Tom O'Neill insisted it is not over for the Bay State's junior senator. Kerry can still turn it around in New Hampshire, said O'Neill, son of the late, legendary Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill. All he must do is " give people a reason to vote for him," Tom O'Neill says.

It sounds so simple. But Kerry has yet to do it, and time is growing short.

If the only person who can beat Howard Dean is Howard Dean, John Kerry is the only person who can ignite John Kerry. He can wear the elegant coat and the fine shoes if he wants. He doesn't have to don a hunting jacket. Don't go native, senator. Just go human. Sell yourself.

If Kerry can't do it with consistency, he can't win New Hampshire. If he can't win New Hampshire, it's over, no matter what the consultants try to spin.

New Hampshire should have been Kerry's first stand. Now it is his last stand.

Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com.