A new reality for Democrats

Howard Dean has money, organization, and the covers of Time and Newsweek. His Democratic primary opponents are desperate to slow him down before those Iowa caucusgoers actually caucus and the Granite State seals the deal with Dean. So they attack, attack, attack, leaving Dean to wage a one-on-one campaign against the one true opponent, George W. Bush. Like Godzilla, says political consultant Dan Payne, Dean just got stronger, although new polls show some weakening in the wake of all the attacks.

A lot can happen to change the dynamic between now and Jan. 19, when Iowans finally gather. Will "Hamlet from the Heartland" -- also known as Iowa Senator Tom Harkin -- decide to endorse Dick Gephardt or any one of the Democrats? Is John Kerry showing signs of a real bounce and the possibility of overtaking Gephardt in Iowa? Will Dean's Internet-driven supporters get up from their computers and walk into enough Iowa living rooms to allow him to meet the now overwhelming expectations for success? What will Joe Lieberman run out of first -- sanctimony or ways to call Dean an extremist? Will either drive Dean to flash his "temperament?"

Such questions of logistics and politics are of keen interest to the cast of would-be presidents. Exhausted and raspy-voiced, they care about only one thing: becoming the Democratic Party nominee. But something larger than their personal ambition is playing out. Whatever the outcome of this primary contest, the rest of us are watching a grander spectacle -- the dinosaurs of the Democratic political establishment frantically flicking their tails as they try to knock Dean over and reclaim their turf.

If only they understood: There is no going back. Their world no longer exists.

You don't believe it, Terry McAuliffe? The next time you come to Boston to review plans for the party's nominating convention in July, think about the Bay State's 2002 gubernatorial campaign. A microcosm of the Dean phenomenon developed here in Massachusetts.

Robert Reich proved that even when disorganized, the new Cyber Democrat can take over a caucus. The establishment ultimately succeeded in blocking Reich and salvaging the party nomination for insider Shannon O'Brien.

Then the entire Democratic establishment, including Boston Mayor Tom Menino and Massachusetts's two US senators, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, draped itself around O'Brien. But their blessing and embrace could not win her the final prize, even in this supposed bastion of old-fashioned liberalism.

That is because it exists only in the minds of its dwindling acolytes. With support from the new power electorate -- the independent voter -- Mitt Romney beat the liberal establishment. If that is true here, imagine the power of independent thinking and voting in other parts of the country.

As Payne points out, taking on the establishment is not new. Sometimes the outsider wins the party nomination, as George McGovern did in 1972; sometimes the outsider goes on to win the presidency, as Jimmy Carter did in 1976 and Bill Clinton did in 1992. To borrow from John McCain, sometimes all the outsider does is interrupt the coronation.

But it's getting easier for outsiders, because voters are tired of tired old insider politics.

The old coalitions don't hold anymore. Labor can't deliver the way it once did. People hear the cliches and catch phrases on both sides of the political aisle and know them for what they are -- pure, meaningless political rhetoric.

This political cycle is different because of Dean and the absence of a single unifying D.C.-backed Democratic candidate. "One may emerge and overtake Dean, but don't bet your Pete Rose rookie card on it," says Payne.

It has been said before, but it's true. Only Dean will knock Dean out. He is the phenomenon of the campaign, and he's tapped into something that none of the others have. He figured out how to use the Internet both to raise money and get his message out. He's not afraid to say what he thinks or contradict himself. Now the power of this new constituency is about to be tested in the only way that really matters: voting.

If Dean falters, watch for voters to embrace another outsider, former general Wesley Clark.

Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com.