Don't count on better US-Canada relationship

Unfortunately, that anticipation is groundless. The gap between Martin's Liberal Party of Canada and the Bush administration and the Republican-led Congress is wide -- and growing. Only a Canadian prime minister with a substantively different agenda who is willing to invest all his political capital in turning the personal relationship around could have some hope of success. Martin has shown no better understanding of how to relate to Bush than his predecessor.

The Canadian-American relationship is made out of a million points of quiet cooperation on almost everything, half a dozen trade disputes, and a volatile political climate. Sometimes the Canadian or provincial governments try to get away with a hidden subsidy or a social program that actually creates an unfair trade advantage; sometimes an American business lobby tries to gag a Canadian competitor by means of trade action or an arbitrary regulation. British Columbia's stumpage fee on softwood lumber is an example of the former, America's ban on Canadian beef in the wake of one mad cow is an example of the latter.

Canada's prosperity is hyper-dependent on the American economy and the goodwill of America's political structures to keep it that way. The 700 billion Canadian dollars in bilateral trade flow, both goods and services, annually constitutes 75 percent of Canada's gross domestic product. More than 85 percent of our exports go to the United States and half of our population (15 million) crosses the border at least once per year. Sixty-five cents of every foreign investment dollar comes from our southern neighbor. Moreover, Canada's defense and national security are completely intertwined with American security, and what is more, our American neighbors have let us get away with a basic free ride for decades. We now spend $8 billion on defense versus America's $400 billion.

Doing the simple math, one would think the Canadian government would make it a top priority to seek the best political relationship possible with the White House. Given that political power is dispersed in the American system, it is difficult enough to influence congressional action. Canada's key asset is a president who likes us and at times goes to bat for us.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who had been Bill Clinton's close ally, immediately understood the new scene and changed tactics. Chretien and his inner circle refused to accept who Bush really is and tried to oppose him, specifically by not embracing the Iraq war.

Bush thinks and acts in values defined by politics. His diplomatic style is to look for friendship, trust, and loyalty. We know that Bush, Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice have no specific soft spots for Canada. They actually understand that Canada's foreign policy is at odds with the close trading relationship. They noticed Canada's cheerleader role in advocating the US-opposed landmine treaty and the International Criminal Court, plus our opposition to changing the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. They saw, after 9/11, that instead of proactively engaging the Americans on building a continental security perimeter, Canada became a reluctant player. They were disappointed that we opposed the Iraq war so strongly.

There is no one in the current White House who will carry the ball for Ottawa. In fact, Cheney and Rumsfeld are quite prepared to make Canada feel the pain of having played the opposition game. To Bush's political adviser, Karl Rove, Canada sounds like an extension of the Howard Dean campaign. No need to be nice there.

If, as Canadian prime minister, you want to change the political climate in order to minimize congressional or administrative protectionist actions against Canada in an election year, you need to build a genuine personal friendship and trust relationship with the American president.

Instead, in their first 15-minute phone call on Dec. 15, Martin questioned Bush on how to try Saddam Hussein, rubbing salt in that old wound. Bush was reminded of Martin's comments by a reporter's question in his news conference of that same day. Watching it, you could almost read Bush's mind: "Oh, yes, that same pesky question was asked by my new `friend.' "

Great start. Canada has it coming. My prediction is that the Bush team will either ignore or put pressure on Canada's senior political relationship and make Martin feel the heat. It is no longer business as usual.

Alexander Moens teaches international politics at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia. This article originally appeared in Newsday.