Expectations blowin' in Iowa wind

State of play: Missin' g's. What do Dennis Kucinich and Joe Lieberman have in common? Only white men not droppin' their g's to sound more like regular guys. Howard Dean leadin' polls, but talkin' about God because he dudn't want to be soundin' like uptight Yankee in South. Dick Gephardt runnin' on empty, knockin' trade, prayin' for win in Iowa. Kerry soundin' better, bashin' Dean, lackin' theme. John Edwards settin' a spell till South Carolina. Kucinich hopin' biggest endorser Willie Nelson sings "Crazy" for him. Iowa no-show Wesley Clark movin' up in N.H., doin' tax thing up there, but gettin' into public dissin' contest with Dean over whether doc dangled VP slot. Al Sharpton settin' with Edwards, waitin' for S.C. Lieberman skippin' Iowa, goin' backwards in polls. May soon fall into Carol Moseley Braun, Lyndon Larouche, Mars-like terrain.

The deal with caucuses. Week from tomorrow, 6:30 p.m. Don't be late or you might not get to vote (this is Midwest, not Cambridge). Seventy thousand to 100,000 Dems spend couple hours at one of 2,000 precinct locations -- schools, libraries, church basements, grain silos. Split into groups of likeminded. Divvy up delegates to county conventions held later. Yep, not even picking delegates to national convention. To qualify for any delegates, candidate needs 15 percent of vote. If not, his or her delegates free to sit and watch, vote for someone else, run with scissors, whatever.

Great Expectations. In early contests, you want to finish better than expected. But who says what's expected in Iowa? On this page, I do.

Dean, I expect to finish first. Below expectations: first by less than 5 points or second place, especially if Kerry is close third. Third place: Call 911. Win with 40 percent: Walk-off homer.

Gephardt expected to finish close second. Once was frontrunner here, expectations falling in recent weeks. First place: Full recovery. Third place: Labor-induced candidacy sent to bed.

Kerry meets expectations if third -- but falls dangerously below if loses to number two finisher by more than 5 points. If Kerry wins, forget Comeback Kid. He's Lazarus. Second: Beats expectations, gets bump going into N.H. Single digits? Learn ketchup business.

Edwards expected to finish fourth. Needs double digits to beat expectations. Second or third: big win. Single digits puts him on Political Endangered Species List.

Kucinich exceeds expectations if he gets Willie Nelson commercial on Iowa TV. Delegate or two is icing on cake.

Sharpton and Braun expectations set at zero. The Armchair Strategist will bet the Iowa farm they'll meet them.

Clark took pass on Iowa, but Armchair Strategist is alert to general's enlisted people trying to sneak under radar and extract few delegates to show "unexpected" support. Don't even think about it.

Coalition of the willing. If Iowa were Mass., Kerry organizers would be handing out cellphones. If third place inevitable, they could tell Kerry caucus goers to throw enough support to Gephardt so he beats Dean. Idea: Soften up Dean, hope Kerry beats him in N.H. Two drawbacks: Iowa caucus-goers are neighbors, not schemers; if Kerry finishes third in Iowa, Clark could beat him in N.H. If Kucinista fail to reach 15 percent "viability," they could switch and tip balance between Dean and Gephardt here and there. If so, Strategist figures Dennis believers would bolt to Gephardt to punish Dean for stealing antiwar votes.

Not easy being Dean. How tough is it? Even Dennis Kucinich attacking Dean in recent Iowa debates. That's like Mother Teresa takin' cuts in front of you at 7-11.

Groundhog Day. In 1993 movie, Bill Murray played smug weatherman forced to relive same unhappy day over and over. Dick Gephardt fears repeat of 1988 -- won Iowa, lost N.H. (to New Englander, Dukakis), lost all over South except Missouri, dropped out.

No weatherman needed. Bob Dylan sang, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." High-wind elected and party officials called superdelegates have automatic votes at DNC convention. Armchair Strategist shocked by ABC News poll of superluminaries: Dean 90, Kerry 59, Gephardt 49, Clark 24. Heavy wind could soon be howlin' from Vermont.

Dan Payne is a Democratic media consultant and a presidential campaign analyst for WBUR radio in Boston.