Kennedy at his side, Kerry makes a push

DUBUQUE, Iowa

MIKE CONNOLLY, a veteran state legislative leader from a part of Iowa where you can almost close your eyes and imagine being in the Northeast -- the heavily Catholic, blue-collar east by the Mississippi River -- summed up John Kerry's situation with the conciseness of an experienced politician. "It's safe to say John Kerry is an underdog, but he's an underdog on the move," Connolly said.

This week Kerry is displaying a strong grip on the Iowa State House, bringing out more than two-dozen legislators, the people with the most direct links to the local precincts where the caucuses that start the presidential nomination process are held. No other candidate has this kind of backing.

While Howard Dean was getting a belated nod from US Senator Tom Harkin, Kerry was getting an equally important boost from another Iowa institution, longtime Attorney General Tom Miller, whose roots are in this Democratic river town.

While John Edwards was getting the big media prize, the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, Kerry was getting important backing from outlets here in the east, where he has established an increasingly strong base.

While Dean, Harkin, and former vice president President Al Gore were covering the same territory last weekend -- Davenport to the south here and Cedar Rapids -- Kerry and Senator Edward Kennedy were outdrawing them on the same turf.

And in the scramble for momentum in a campaign that has become delightfully confused in its final days, it is Kerry and (surprisingly for the moment) Edwards who can claim movement in the numbers while Dean and Dick Gephardt struggle to hold on to a slightly stronger position. There is an unusually large number of uncommitted Democrats in this fight, more than enough to close the gap, and they keep telling interviewers they are looking at Kerry and Edwards more than at Dean and Gephardt.

Scratching for an analogy, Connolly decided on Seabiscuit, the scrawny horse that recently thrilled book readers and moviegoers with a reprise of his gritty triumph over War Admiral in 1938.

Somewhat unlike pure primary states, Iowa with its caucus system rewards the kind of political support Kerry has started to generate. But political support does not explain Kerry's revival here. The difference since November has not been Iowa pols and newspapers; it has been Kerry.

With Kennedy as his validating opening act, Kerry spent the weekend drawing cheers that indicate real connections with supporters as he inveighed against a "Republican recovery" that expands production and corporate profits while barely affecting jobs and wages, and he reminded audiences that he is the only candidate with a proposal to lower the cost of health insurance. Voters love it when he rails against corporations that pay a few thousand dollars for the mailing addresses on Bermuda that allow the avoidance of US taxes, and they love it even more when he nails the evil lobbyists who block progressive change in Washington.

Kerry's fresh emphasis on family economics, the essence of connection in what is after all a contest within the Democratic Party, is being supported on television by some truly powerful commercials. The latest is a testimonial from a single mother who lost her husband to cancer and is struggling to raise three kids on $30,000 from her job. Her message supports Kerry for insisting that the income tax cuts she has received in the last few years -- all pushed by Democrats in Congress -- be maintained so that her heavy burden isn't increased. There is no need for any mention of Howard Dean's name on the other side of this question.

Kerry's reversal of fortune out here is mostly a function of message. It shows how wrong the conventional view is that his summer slide was the product of his vote in the fall of 2002 to authorize the use of force in Iraq. The real problem was a campaign that blocked a connection with voters by focusing took much on Kerry's resume, foreign policy knowledge, and Vietnam War record. That campaign was about him; this campaign is about them.

In this campaign, the resume backs up his vow to fight for people; it comes at the end of the message. At the final Iowa debate in Des Moines Sunday evening, another strong Kerry performance, the guy with the war record and the background to run foreign policy is the guy who will fight for health care and jobs. In Kennedy's expert reintroductions over the weekend, the "steadfastness and courage" in Kerry's background make him credible in the fight for economic justice.

By necessity Kerry's gamble in Iowa is a long shot that makes Seabiscuit's 1938 race seem like even money -- to go all out here in order to slingshot himself back into contention in New Hampshire. He has succeeded in helping to confuse this race at the end, but I haven't a clue if the gamble will work. What is not in doubt is that Kerry is now conducting a campaign that has a fighting chance.

Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is oliphant@globe.com.