A strong finish, broad support
JOHN KERRY WON a near-landslide victory in the New Hampshire primary last night -- a broad, convincing win with huge implications for the national contest for the Democratic presidential nomination that begins today.
With months of silly conventional wisdom now in a coffin, Kerry has done more than win a rare, Iowa-New Hampshire weekly double. He has now made the only clear claim to the nomination that is based on real votes, but it is not yet an unassailable one.
Kerry must still demonstrate an ability to win in more conservative settings next week in the Midwest, Southwest, and in South Carolina. And he may have to show it without the benefit of such a divided field of credible opponents; most likely whoever emerges from the Wesley Clark-John Edwards tussle for third place last night behind the disappointingly distant second-placer, Howard Dean.
Presidential nominations are won by candidates who build on a secure base of support, who can reach out to segments of the electorate not previously supportive.
In his second outing before voters, Kerry showed an ability to do that. New Hampshire, despite its tiny size and absence of minorities, does pose the first primary test of an ability to win in cities and suburbs alike -- which Kerry managed to do last night, especially in the sprawling bedroom communities just north of the Massachusetts border and in the hard-core Democratic strongholds of Manchester and Nashua.
He also was impressive in dominating cities where Dean might once have been strong -- Concord and Laconia -- and by holding Dean to small margins in places he needed to win big -- Keene and Hanover.
This was an electorate -- according to surveys of voters as they left polling places -- that contained an unusually large chunk of people for whom the ability to beat President Bush this November was the most important consideration. For about one-third of them this "electability" was more important than whether the candidates agreed with them on issues. Among this determined group, Kerry was getting 50 percent of the vote last night.
However, Kerry's dominance also extended to primary voters with issue concerns close to home -- especially health care and economic matters vital to American families who live off their paychecks and pensions. Among the 30 percent who cited health care as most important, as well as among the 20 percent who cited jobs and the economy, Kerry's position was overwhelming.
As it had been for some time, Dean's appeal was much more narrow. In demographic terms, it did not extend much beyond relatively high-income Democrats and liberals. It was also a partisan appeal, concentrated among the 50 percent of yesterday's electorate who were registered Democrats, as opposed to the other half (a vital constituency in the general election) who expressed some degree of independence.
It was, in addition, an emotional appeal. With Kerry dominating among those who said beating Bush mattered most to them, Dean had the edge among the 50 percent who were "angry" at the Bush administration.
Dean's sole issue strength, as it has been for a long time, involved the war in Iraq. Roughly 20 percent of the voters in New Hampshire cited the war as their primary concern, and they were mostly Dean voters. This share appeared to have been slightly higher than it was in Iowa on Jan. 19 -- perhaps because of recent events in the country and in Washington -- and may account for a good bit of the less enormous margin between Dean and Kerry.
Geography may also account for a good bit. Dean was at his strongest in the towns on the eastern bank of the Connecticut River, those closest to Vermont. Without this proximity vote, the former Vermont governor would have lost New Hampshire in a true landslide. This fact will affect national judgments of his campaign's viability next week.
The month's tumultuous political events had a considerable impact -- Dean's loss of support and good will in Iowa and then his infamous reaction to defeat. Among those who said they made their voting decisions over the last week (about half the total), Kerry got 50 percent of their votes. The exit poll also indicated that of those who said they decided over the weekend, Edwards, Dean, and Kerry were basically even; so much for the Dean rebound.
Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is oliphant@globe.com. 