A timely boost versus Bush
LOS ANGELES
PUT YOURSELF in President Bush's shoes this morning the better to understand John Kerry's intriguing opportunities in the wake of his near-sweep of the Super Tuesday primaries.
Bush just committed to a $4.5 million cable television advertising buy in 16 pivotal states to rebuild his recently tattered image, supported by Dick Cheney's cable interview-a-thon to rebuild an even more tattered image. In those 16 states, Bush and Kerry are neck and neck, according to Bush campaign officials -- 45-45 percent with the rest undecided.
Then, almost on the eve of the blitz's beginning, the biggest catastrophe since the end of formal combat in Iraq occurs, once again shattering the notion that Iraq is either stable or clearly evolving in the right direction. If you are the Bush TV buyer, you wish you could take the ads off the air for a few days; the money spent on them this week is down the toilet.
As Kerry's high command prepared yesterday both to celebrate last night's definitive climax to a stunning comeback from the abyss last year and begin gearing up for the general election, there was more than a little discussion of the way events in real life can clash with TV ad messages.
Bush's spending on ads at just the moment Americans may want a break from politics does not automatically translate into polling points; and a massive attack on Kerry may not be credible until the president is more credible.
Kerry will not have to spend money for now to boost his image with voters; the primaries have already done that.
The current intention is to spend money making Kerry's case in carefully chosen swing states and to rely on his personal campaigning to keep his name before the voters in the major battlegrounds.
The message will come in three parts: a narrative of Bush's presidency as the opposite of what he promised, the presentation of the Kerry record and persona that primary voters know well, and his prescription for economic change. The overall purpose is to establish "trust" in a Kerry presidency for a dangerous era.
Sounds sensible, but it is the final point that must predominate. The most vital lesson of Kerry's comeback is that in breaking through in Iowa and New Hampshire, he brought kitchen table economic issues to the forefront and kept them there. Whenever he let his focus slip (as in Wisconsin), he stumbled. They need to be front and center at all times.
In last night's pivotal primaries (Ohio and Georgia), economic and health care issues trumped war by about 6-1 in the exit polls. With the general electorate, a CBS survey over the weekend had economics and health care ahead of foreign policy by 3 to 1.
Nothing is ever simple in this game, but the election for the moment is on the Democrats' and Kerry's turf. They might want to keep it there.
Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is oliphant@globe.com.
