NE must tackle problem of a worsening climate
THIS WINTER has been a strange one -- periods of extreme cold followed by unseasonable warmth. While some may consider this a "good old fashioned winter," it bears little resemblance to those of the 1950s or '60s. Scientists and policymakers alike are concerned that carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are having an increasingly significant impact on our regional and global climate.
A conference beginning today at Suffolk University Law School and organized by the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers highlights this concern. The conference will explore the environmental and economic dangers that a changing climate poses and will consider how we can adapt to the changes so as to minimize their impacts.
While adapting to climate changes may be inevitable, it should not be our only response to the overuse of fossil fuels. The governors and premiers should also focus on how to reduce such use through greater energy efficiency and developing renewable energy, as they promised to do in their 2001 agreement (setting goals of cutting regional greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2010, to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, and eventually to 75-85 percent below 1990 levels).
New Englanders love to complain about their finicky, unpredictable weather, but amid our muttering about washed-out ski trips and bitter cold spells, a slow but steady shift in the region's climate is underway. Over the past century the annual average temperature of the New England region has warmed by 0.74 degrees, and some areas, including New Hampshire, have warmed by more than twice that amount (1.8 degrees). Even this modest warming trend has had far-reaching consequences.
Over the past 35 years, significant regional warming has occurred, especially in the winter. Our winters are starting later and ending earlier, overall temperatures are warmer, and a few degrees can mean a lot. Lake Champlain, for example, freezes over an average of eight days later than it did a century ago. In some years Champlain fails to freeze, and the timing of these years is instructive: Between 1815 and 1950, the lake failed to freeze over completely only six times, while since 1950 it has failed more than 25 times.
Snowfall levels are declining too. Over the past 50 years, mean annual snowfall in Keene, N.H., has dropped by 23 inches, while Berlin, N.H., has seen a drop of 17 inches. For New Hampshire's ski industry, which contributes more than a half billion dollars a year to the state's economy, reduced natural snow and inconsistent winter weather are a major cause for concern, contributing to dozens of ski resorts closing since 1975.
In Massachusetts, the Arnold Arboretum in Boston is facing a massive die-off of its stately hemlock trees, due to an insect, the woolly adelgid, that is making its way north as the region's winter climate becomes more hospitable.
While the last two winters have been quite cold, the fluctuation in temperature and snowfall are the kind of variability projected by climate models. If the models are correct, changes in winter climates over the next 100 years will be even more dramatic than those of the past century. Even modest projections suggest a warming of 6 degrees by 2100, which would make Boston's climate similar to that of Richmond.
The governors and premiers at the conference are not new to the issue -- in August 2001 they published a Climate Change Action Plan, which listed steps to achieve their goals, including shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, accelerating energy efficiency improvements, and slowing the rapid growth of emissions in transportation. The focus on adaptation emphasizes how our region could learn to live with the impacts that climate change portends. But the adaptation focus is a mistake. New England is helping to lead the nation in pursuit of clean energy and should continue to do so. In response to the 2001 agreement all the New England states, as well as dozens of cities and towns, are developing their own climate action plans. Many are promoting clean renewable energy and energy efficiency -- activities that generate huge cost savings while making our air healthier and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The governors and premiers should concentrate on how this effort to help mitigate the problem can be implemented and accelerated -- not just how to adjust to a worsening climate.
Barrett N. Rock, professor of natural resources and plant biology, is a research scientist in the Complex Systems Research Center at the University of New Hampshire.
