Egypt could be the key to Mideast peace

Senator Richard Lugar, the leading Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee, made a speech recently in which he faulted President Bush for leaving the Israelis and Palestinians to their killing to pursue his reelection campaign. Moreover, since the current Israeli-Palestinian dialogue is a conversation of violence, it is not expected that they themselves will lower the rate of death and destruction between their two societies.

Especially in such an election year we must ask who will have the courage to invest national strategic resources to try to resolve this terrible problem. The Europeans are better at complaining about American passivity than designing any effective initiative of their own. Furthermore, they have allowed their relationships with Israel to deteriorate too far to be effective and credible when and if they try.

Jordan has good will to help and national interest to see this problem cooled down, but Jordan lacks the regional prestige and influence necessary to help construct a resolution.

This leaves the field to Egypt, by default if not by design. Egypt has important credibility as the ongoing political sponsor of the Palestinian movement. Egypt is their most consistent defender in inter-Arab affairs as well as the international arena. Egypt has a long relationship of some depth with the United States, and of course, Egypt was the first Arab country to make peace with Israel, thus giving the idea of peace in the Middle East its first concrete expression.

Yet Egypt's relationship with Israel under Mubarak has been troubled. Mubarak's emergence as president was greeted by the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and its expulsion of the PLO. Mubarak struggled with Israel about the disposition of Taba, the last strip of Egyptian land from which Israel resisted withdrawing after the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Egypt and Israel have also had a running disagreement about their bilateral relationship. Should they have a warm active peace with much commerce and human exchange or a cold peace until Arab-Israeli peace becomes the regional norm?

Egypt could not be a mediator between the Palestinians and the Israelis, since it defines itself as an Arab state and therefore a part of the Arab side in the dispute. But Egypt has been committed to resolving the problems with Israel peacefully and to bringing the Palestinians into the circle of peace.

Though the United States has an abiding interest, under most presidents, in seeing the Israeli-Palestinian problem resolved peacefully, it is not in an equal relationship with Israel and the Palestinians either. In this regard, Egypt is the best counter-part to America in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Egypt has become the necessary, but often unacknowledged and underappreciated partner to American peace efforts.

When the problem lies especially within the Palestinian political system, Egypt is best equipped to try to move such a conflict-ridden entity to an agreed national position, ready for peace-making efforts. Egypt has taken on the task of getting a resistant Hamas to accept some lasting cease-fire agreement with Israel which would allow negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to resume. Egypt has also tried to patch up the internecine conflicts between Fatah and the Palestinian Authority which have crippled peace efforts numerous times.

The recent last minute cancellation of the Arab Summit and Egypt's response exemplifies its international and regional role. Egypt immediately offered to hold the summit a month later in Cairo, an initiative that may or may not work, but which only Egypt could attempt given its strength and willingness to suffer controversy compared to its Arab counterparts.

Egypt, as the most populous Arab country and the most experienced in international affairs and regional leadership is the logical partner for a determined attempt to resolve the perennial disputes of the region, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

When President Mubarak comes to Crawford, Texas, to see President Bush next week, it will be a test of President Bush's learning about the Middle East. Will he abandon the American approach of scolding Mubarak and Egypt for what he and they have not done, or will he attempt to enlist President Mubarak in a joint effort to move the Israeli-Palestinian problem from its present nadir to a place of possibilities? It will take a strong effort to begin to resolve this bloody and protracted conflict and the United States will need real partners to succeed.

Stephen P. Cohen is president of the Institute for Middle East Peace and Development.