JOAN VENNOCHI
After pummeling, Bush climbs backIT'S SHRUMMY versus the mummy.
During a Tuesday conference call with the press, the Bush campaign manager, Ken Mehlman, and the chief strategist, Matthew Dowd, sounded as relieved as survivors of a near-death experience should. The latest national polls show President Bush narrowly leading his Democratic opponent, John Kerry, a miracle after the pummeling taken by the president over the past few weeks. For Robert M. Shrum, chief strategist behind the Kerry image campaign and known as "Shrummy" to the Beltway crowd, the challenge is clear: The Kerry camp must rewrite the horror movie script and bury Bush. Despite external events, it won't be easy. After the books by Richard A. Clarke and Bob Woodward showing a president surrounded by Saddam Hussein-obsessed advisers; after sworn testimony before the 9/11 Commission painting a picture of high-level Bush administration ineptitude; after a press conference panned by a contemptuous media; after death, hostage taking, and chaos in Iraq, Bush is still standing. Indeed, as Bush strategist Dowd wrote in a memo released to the media: "Despite pundit speculation that the president had been weakened over the course of the last month, the president's ballot position has improved, he shows tremendous strength over Kerry on handling terrorism and Iraq and he has made significant gains on handling the other important issues of the day." The polls reflect the usual blink of time and are subject to the usual change of voter heart. Moreover, state-by-state polling is much more significant than any national opinion survey. But it is interesting to consider the overall numbers against the backdrop of headlines and events that are far from favorable to the incumbent.
The latest Gallup Poll showed Bush leading Kerry, 51 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters. In the same poll, 52 percent of Americans said they approved the job Bush is doing. Despite the recent violence in Iraq, 57 percent supported the United States sending troops to Iraq; 58 percent said they believed recent events in Iraq mean the United States should intensify its military efforts, not scale them back. A Over the past month, the Bush reelection campaign spent at least $50 million on television ads. Kerry is currently launching an ad blitz of his own, giving the Democrat a chance to reshape the race to his advantage. For Shrum and the Kerry campaign, one lesson of the last few weeks is that they cannot rely entirely on outside events to bring down Bush. Despite media hype, the general public doesn't take books such as those by Clarke and Woodward as gospel. The grandstanding, opinion-page writing, interview-granting members of the 9/11 Commission also gave the public reason to question its members' credibility and objectivity. While the media fixated on Bush's refusal to apologize or admit mistakes during his recent press conference, the public heard a rationale for war with Iraq. And the war, even if going badly, is not going badly enough for the majority of Americans to want to abandon it. Asked during the Tuesday conference call to assess the overall message on Iraq as gleaned from recent polls, Dowd said they show that "from the beginning, the public had a realistic attitude. They understood this was not a short-term solution. They understood there would be casualties. They understood terrorists would fight us every step of the way; their solution is not to cut and run." In that regard, Iraq remains a problem for Kerry. Beyond his votes for war and against $87 billion in troop assistance, he has to convince voters that he, not Bush, is better suited to finish the job in Iraq. In a new ad, Kerry says he would immediately reach out to the international community. He must convince voters that the international community would reach back to him and that his ability to make that happen is a sign of American strength, not weakness. Shrum has much to do on Kerry's behalf. This month Bush showed an ability to kick off the death shroud and battle back from his press-dug grave.
Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com. © Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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