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Bush's Vatican strategy

Page 2 of 2 -- Many polls suggest that on one level, Americans will ignore or outright reject Bush's attempt to enlist American bishops in the culture wars. In nationwide polling last month by Quinnipiac University, Bush currently has a 48 percent to 41 percent lead over presidential contender John Kerry. A small majority of Catholics also approve of how Bush is handling his job, compared to a small majority that now disapprove of Bush's general performance.

But 66 percent of Catholics say it is wrong for Catholic church leaders to ``publicly pressure Catholic politicians on issues such as abortion.'' That is not much different from the 71 percent of Americans in general who feel the same way. Similarly, 65 percent of Catholics, the same percentage as the general population, disapprove of the announcement by some church leaders that they would not give communion to Bush's prochoice presidential rival John Kerry. A CBS poll last month found an even stronger reaction, with 78 percent of Catholics and 72 percent of the overall registered voters saying it was inappropriate for Catholic bishops to refuse to give communion to elected officials who believe in abortion rights.

All that suggests that Bush is on more shaky ground than he perhaps wants to admit to on gay marriage. The United States has rapidly moved to a place where only 40 percent of people oppose any legal recognition of gay relationships. While only 28 percent would go so far as to support gay marriage in a CBS poll last month (29 percent support civil unions), polls are mixed as to whether Americans would go so far as to support a constitutional ban on gay marriage. Some say yes. Some say no.

What may be more dangerous for Bush is that 70 percent of registered voters in the CBS poll said gay marriage should not be part of the presidential election campaign. That did not stop him from asking the Vatican to help him shake up America. Given the clear limits as to how much Americans want clergy to pressure politicians on abortion, all that Bush might be doing is shaking a bee hive. We all know what angry bees and voters do.

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Derrick Z. Jackson's e-mail address is jackson@globe.com. 

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