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JOAN VENNOCHI

Kerry's labor calculation

JOHN KERRY refuses to waver when it comes to one key issue -- what is best for John Kerry.

To that end, Kerry is sticking with Thomas Nee, the president of the Boston Police Patrolmen's Association, who recently compared negotiating a labor contract with Boston Mayor Thomas M. Menino to dealing "with the Mafia." Kerry canceled a scheduled speech before the US Conference of Mayors rather than cross an informational picket line set up by Nee's organization. Governor Mitt Romney, a Republican, faced down 100 picketing police officers to replace Kerry.

Kerry's refusal to cross the picket line illustrates Democratic Party politics as usual. The senator believes support from labor is more critical to his presidential aspirations than loyalty to Menino, whose support is guaranteed.

Yet, Kerry's choice still says something fascinating about the dynamics of his presidential campaign. With yesterday's transfer of power to an interim government, Iraq's future is on the line and so is President Bush's political future. Two more hostages are threatened with execution by beheading. The world is torn over America's foreign policy. The political stage is global, the stakes for America's next president are higher than ever.

In the midst of this, the Democratic presidential nominee-to-be worries about offending the Boston patrolmen's union? If Kerry truly offers the clear alternative to George W. Bush he contends he does, does he really need to bow down before labor in order to win foot soldiers for election day get-out-the-vote efforts? If the choice is that simple, voters will flood the polls to vote for the Democrat and will not require Teamsters to drag them there.

To some degree, this Kerry cave-in showcases how much the ghosts of the 1988 presidential election still haunt Democrats, especially Massachusetts Democrats. The BPPA threw its support to George H.W. Bush that year, humiliating the Democratic nominee, Michael Dukakis, in his home state. The circle around Kerry fears a repeat. However, even if the BPPA were spiteful enough to go against its own self-interest and endorse George W. Bush, the impact in 2004 would fall far short of the impact in 1988.

The world is a much different place today, this Bush is a much different candidate than his father, and Kerry is no Michael Dukakis. Dukakis was ambivalent, at best, about his presidential run, but unambivalent about who he was -- a proud, "card-carrying member" of the American Civil Liberties Union. Kerry wants to win and, after photo-op bouts of soul-searching indecision, he will decisively choose political expedience over principle.

He makes the choice betting that today's voters set a low bar when it comes to defining leadership.

Calvin Coolidge, a Massachusetts Republican governor who went on to become president, won a national reputation for decisive action when he used the state militia to end a Boston police strike in 1919. However, in his autobiography, Coolidge wrote, "I fully expected it would result in my defeat in the coming campaign for reelection to governor."

In modern politics, such moments are poll-driven and carefully calculated for maximum media impact and minimum political fallout. In June 1992, Bill Clinton had his much-heralded "Sister Souljah" moment, criticizing a popular rap artist for comments that sounded like she approved of blacks killing whites in that year's Los Angeles riots. Kerry's "Sister Souljah" moment of walking away from a traditional Democratic constituency came at the expense of an interest group much less powerful than labor. He had one such moment with gays, when he supported a state constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman. If he deems it necessary to make another show of independence before November, which constituency is disposable?

It will not be labor, if Kerry sticks to what he said on Sunday night: "I don't cross picket lines. I never have."

To keep that pledge during the week of the Democratic National Committee, it looks like Kerry cut a deal with the police. The BPPA said yesterday that picket lines will not interfere with convention-goers. Picket lines will only be set up around neighborhood delegation parties. In essence, Kerry sold out the rest of city, so he can walk in glory into the FleetCenter.

More personally, he sold out the mayor by embarrassing him before colleagues such as Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, a Democrat, who said of Kerry's speech cancellation, "I'm extremely disappointed and I'm leaning towards being angry. It's not a leadership move."

It was never intended as a leadership move. It is a political move, Kerry thinking about what is best for Kerry. Is it the correct political move? We shall see.

Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com. 

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