Women count more than NASCAR dads

WASHINGTON
FOR POSSIBLY the most politically important but least understood collection of people in the country this year, there is no honey-do list every day because there is no honey.

In some truly ground-breaking research, consultant and activist Page Gardner came up with the above observation, as well as what ought to become a fresh term of reference in politics -- women on their own.

If John Kerry would kindly remind the public once in a while that he favors a $7-an-hour minimum wage, he would be talking directly to them. The issue of income, says Gardner, is "simply huge."

And why not? Half of all the women in this country who are not married scrape by on 30 grand a year or less.

If John Kerry would kindly remind the public occasionally that he will block all attempts to even partially privatize Social Security and will in fact shore up the retirement system (private pensions included) he would also be talking directly to women on their own.

Gardner's research shows that even in their 30s, unmarried women have enormous worries about retirement security whether or not they have children.

In foreign affairs, Gardner says unmarried women embody a dichotomy in public opinion that may also be crucial in November -- disgust at what has happened in Iraq and fanaticism about domestic security.

One could go on and on -- through health insurance costs and availability, bankruptcy protection, abortion rights, unemployment insurance, prescription drug costs, and above all education both elementary and adult. There are plenty of arguments for progressive domestic policies (including the merits), but the impact of direct, repeated communication on kitchen table concerns could be decisive because of the dividends available among women on their own.

They are not only a huge demographic, they are also notorious nonvoters -- largely, research has shown, because they do not think politicians understand or address their concerns. If they voted in the same proportion to eligibility as their married counterparts, Kerry's margin over President Bush would approach 10 percentage points.

Along with a San Francisco environmental attorney, Chris Desser, Page Gardner co-directs "Women's Voices.Women Vote." -- a nonpartisan organization that has done pioneering work in this area with polling, focus groups, as well as election, census, and commercial data. It is research for a purpose -- .nding, registering, and turning out women on their own. Toward that end, the organization has been making its data available to the groups that work on turnout.

If Kerry supported their efforts with a clear economic message aimed at ordinary Americans who live off their paychecks and pension checks the task would be immeasurably easier.

There is nothing new about the identi.cation of relatively untapped groups of potential voters. This cycle's fads include the famous 4 million conservative Christians that the Republicans say didn't vote four years ago, male NASCAR fans, and Latinos.

Women on their own make these groups seem puny. Fully 22 million unmarried women (a third with kids, 20 percent retired) did not vote in 2000, with 16 million unregistered. That is just under half the eligible population of them. That is nearly four times the number of so-calledNASCAR dads, and more than blacks, Latinos, and Jewish voters combined. In 2000, they split 66-30 percent for Al Gore, according to exit polls. This compares to turnout rates of 44 percent for single men (a narrow Gore edge), 68 percent among married women (a Gore-Bush tie) and 67 percent among married men (by 18 points, the one clear Bush advantage).

As Gardner enjoys noting, if unmarried women's turnout had matched married women's in Florida four years ago, 202,000 more of them would have voted. More important this time around, her organization not only knows the numbers everywhere, it is also at work identifying them personally in 12 states, including battlegrounds like Florida, Louisiana, Missouri,Nevada,North Carolina, and Ohio.

For a half-century the importance of unmarried people in American culture has been growing. In Ozzie and Harriet's day, four of .ve households were headed by a married couple; today it's basically a 50-50 split. Politics has not kept pace, however. People vote when they feel a reason to, and "leaders" have let single people, especially women, down for years.

"Women's Voices.Women Vote." is nonpartisan for fund-raising purposes much as groups working with conservative Christians are.

In fact, its work is loaded with Democratic support, including Teresa Heinz Kerry's philanthropies and MoveOn.org.

In a supposedly polarized country, mobilization is obviously critical this year, but what makes the task among single women potentially less onerous is the fact that their issues are more practical than ideological. What is missing, however, is the support a clear economic message from Kerry would give. He's had his postconvention victory tour; now it's time to connect.

Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is oliphant@globe.com.