Spin can't hide the economic slidePage 2 of 2 -- Politicians always need a narrative to frame their presentations. One of the many facts that makes Bush vulnerable this year is that his narrative of the economy since 2000 makes no sense to the people who experienced it.
Consider: He "inherited" a brief recession that began in March 2001, and then 9/11 and a raft of business scandals ensued, but we're back and his policies, above all the tax cuts, are working. The truth as people experienced it: A decline in business investment triggered a recession lasting at most a few months, 9/11 barely put a dent in the consumer who kept going into debt to keep spending, but it's been three years and not only has the economy not recovered yet, it is flirting with stagnation again. Ordinary people never got much tax relief, no more is in store, and with wage income flat as a pancake, and health, energy and education costs soaring, the squeeze couldn't be tighter. That narrative fits a challenger's role, which makes it no surprise at all that Kerry's initial burst of TV advertising this month is focused on the economy, and tailored to each of the battleground states where it is appearing. As a sometime contrarian, however, I was more interested to hear that despite the focus of the Republican convention on war and Kerry's fitness for command, the Bush-Cheney campaign is also advertising about economics after months of Kerry bashing. The first batch of commercials almost makes the president out to be something other than the president: He will propose a "simpler" tax code; he has a plan to lower health care costs, he favors less dependence on foreign energy. You almost expect one of the ads to declare that Bush is so upset with the status quo that he thinks the incumbents should be tossed from office so new leadership can take over. In one of the ads, the claim is made that while the United States is standing tall post-9/11, "we need to make our economy more job friendly to keep American jobs here in America." In New York terms, the audience would be forgiven for snapping back, "Where ya been, pal?"
Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is oliphant@globe.com. © Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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