Bush's plan of attack on Kerry

IT WASN'T rocket science, nor was it ever much of a deep, dark political secret. If Democrats wanted advance notice of George W. Bush's reelection strategy, all they had to do was clip this Feb. 17 article in USA Today: "How the Bush team will try to paint Kerry." The plan was straightforward: Paint Kerry as a Massachusetts liberal, but first paint an even darker picture of an untrustworthy, elitist flip-flopper.

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The story by Judy Keen detailed GOP plans to depict Kerry as a product of Washington, beholden to special interests and out of touch with regular Americans. "President Bush's campaign strategists believe `Massachusetts liberal' is a potent political epithet. But they don't think it's enough to defeat Massachusetts Senator John Kerry," the article noted. The article previewed several lines of Republican attack, including three that proved to be especially successful -- charges that Kerry switches positions when it's politically expedient, is on the wrong side of issues like defense and intelligence spending, and is a "hypocrite" on Vietnam.

Six days later, on Feb. 23, the incumbent president officially launched his campaign theme in remarks to the Republican Governors Association. Kerry was not yet his party's nominee, but already he was Bush's target. "The other party's nomination battle is still playing out," the president said. "The candidates are an interesting group with diverse opinions: For tax cuts and against them. For NAFTA and against NAFTA. For the Patriot Act and against it. In favor of liberating Iraq and against it. And that's just one senator from Massachusetts."

Back then the Bush attack had a touch of lightness. As the president's approval ratings slipped and the situation in Iraq grew grimmer, the light touch turned into a deadly shiv administered by unofficial surrogates. In August, the now-infamous Swift Boat Veterans for Truth challenged Kerry's credibility and trustworthiness by questioning his status as a Vietnam War hero. With Kerry declining to engage directly in this battle, GOP strategists made the most of August and the week of the Republican National Convention. Then Bush dropped the ball in his first face-to-face showdown with Kerry in Coral Gables, Fla., giving Kerry the opening he is racing to exploit.

After Bush regained some of his footing in the second debate he returned to the original GOP script -- painting Kerry as an untrustworthy flip-flopper and Massachusetts liberal.

For example, on Oct. 6 in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Bush said his opponent is campaigning on a pledge to raise taxes -- "the kind of promise a politician from Massachusetts usually keeps." He labeled Kerry's health care plan "Clinton care." He cited a debunked ranking of Kerry as more liberal than Ted Kennedy, a title Bush said his opponent earned by "voting for higher taxes, more regulation . . . and more government control over your life."

In defending the US invasion of Iraq, which is dominating the presidential campaign, Bush tied it to the war on terror and said: "My opponent agrees with all this -- except when he doesn't. Last week in our debate he again came down firmly on every side of the Iraq war."

Going into the third and final debate, recent polls show a head-to-head race. If the incumbent prevails despite all the bad news out of Iraq and all the damning reports about America's misguided invasion of that country, Democrats should blame themselves for campaigning too long under the influence of arrogance and self-inflicted ignorance.

The GOP strategy was no secret. Neither were Kerry's inherent political weaknesses. The Bush campaign strategy could not work unless it accurately exposed kernels of unpleasant truth about the Democratic opponent. The Bush campaign painted a picture of Kerry before Kerry exposed unpleasant truths about Bush. The Democrat was so busy challenging the Republicans to "bring it on" that Kerry took too long to bring it back to Bush. Kerry also underestimated the bitterness of Vietnam veterans who resented his antiwar protest and, even more, his willingness to launch a political career on that Vietnam War opposition. In these final campaign weeks, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth are still working to defeat a fellow veteran, showing a vengeful staying power that Kerry was either too naive or proud to grasp.

With the election just 19 days away, Bush's campaign against Kerry is ending the way it started so many months ago. The script is the same. If it succeeds, it will illustrate the power of a simple message about an opponent's flaws, repeated so often it distracts the voter from the flaws of the candidate delivering it.

Kerry's hope is that this president's flaws are simply too big to overlook on Election Day.

Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com.