A Sun Belt strategy for Kerry

HENDERSON, Nev.
A DOZEN years ago, Gail Tuzzolo did what Americans by the thousands are still doing every day -- she packed up herself and her business and migrated from the Frost Belt to the Sun Belt.

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For those who enjoy irony, it would be delicious if her decision to be part of a mass movement that has been central to the electoral strength of modern conservatism ended up helping elect John Kerry president all these years later.

Tuzzolo is no conservative. She's a hardcore labor Democrat and a political consultant by trade. When she lived in Winchester, she was a player around the Massachusetts State House, worked at arranging surrogate appearances in 1988 when Mike Dukakis was running for president, and ran the state for the short-lived 1984 presidential candidacy of the late Senator Alan Cranston of California.

Four years ago, she and some activist pals awoke in the aftermath of Al Gore's three-point loss here and decided to try to adapt a favored election year technique of the right -- a hot-button referendum issue -- to help elect Democrats.

"We were getting . . . kicked by stuff like gay marriage and guns and affirmative action," she recalled the other day as she prepared to hit the streets canvassing as early voting began in this sprawling suburb of Las Vegas. "The thought that a few of us had was nothing more complicated than `Let's do it to them.' "

Gay marriage has already run its course here as a wedge issue. A state constitutional amendment was on the ballot in 2000 and it passed the required second time two years ago. Only in Nevada could "traditional marriage" be saved for the mercurial likes of Britney Spears and denied to gay couples who have raised children.

The idea that Tuzzolo and her pals chose was to increase the state's minimum wage by a dollar over the federal standard of $5.15 an hour and keep it a dollar higher in the future. The issue was smartly framed so that there were exceptions for firms that also offer healthcare benefits, which has had the effect of avoiding opposition from the all-powerful casino and resort interests. Tuzzolo knows her numbers -- economic and political. Long before Kerry was known here, the referendum was attracting more than 70 percent support in opinion polls and was being used as a motivational tool to register new voters. With total support from the powerful labor movement in Nevada (because of the casino industry, something like 20 percent of the work force is unionized, well above the national average), about 150,000 have been registered.

Of particular interest to Tuzzolo are what are called these days "low-propensity voters" -- people who have voted in the past, but not much in recent years. In the constant polling that typifies a battleground state, more than 90 percent of these re-registrants are in favor of the referendum. Of equal importance is the fact that more than 80 percent of them are breaking for Kerry.

In Nevada, the economic issue is not jobs per se so much as income. The state's household income is well below the national average of about $50,000. According to Tuzzolo, more than 50,000 people work for the the current $5.15 minimum, with another 100,000 a dollar above that. Nearly three-fourths of them work full time, 60 percent are women, and 25 percent are working moms. What is at stake for these struggling people and their families is $2,000 more in annual income in a time of $2-a-gallon gasoline, soaring healthcare costs and insurance premiums and flat wages.

Once the presidential debates shifted onto domestic policy issues, nothing mattered more to Kerry's supporters than his statements in favor of a higher federal minimum wage and an assault on the inequalities that still leave women's wages one-fourth below what men get for the same work.

President Bush has plenty to fight back with, but not on these issues. His campaign concentrates its advertising and its personal appearances to the north in the areas around Reno, hammering away at terrorism concerns and the assertion that Kerry and hated "big government" are synonymous.

As elsewhere, the Bush campaign is aimed at mobilizing conservative voters.

Here in sprawling Clark County, the Kerry emphasis is a mixture of reaction against the mess in Iraq and kitchen table economics, with an added concentration on turning out newly registered voters.

Four years ago, the background noise for the election year was a loud argument about whether gay people should get marriage licenses. This time around, thanks to people like Gail Tuzzolo, the wild card is a discussion about providing a decent income to families struggling very hard to make ends meet each week. Big difference.

Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is oliphant@globe.com.