US diplomacy needed on Iran nuclear crisis

THE UNITED States must give diplomacy a chance by joining its European allies in their attempt to solve the Iranian nuclear crisis. The lesson of Iraq for the administration is that the United States needs help from its allies to secure its vital interests.

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In Iraq, Washington eschewed the view of Germany, France, and other potentially important allies in deciding to go to war and in administering the occupation. The administration's unilateral policies left a chaotic Iraq at the mercy of a vicious insurgency. Only midnight multilateral diplomacy by the United Nations and our allies produced Prime Minister Allawi's government and a glimmer of hope.

The crisis over Iran offers Washington the chance to get it right this time. On Nov. 14, the EU three (Germany, France, and Great Britain) negotiated an agreement under which Iran agreed to suspend all uranium enrichment activity on Nov. 22; enrichment can produce reactor fuel or a bomb. But the United States has reacted warily: It did not endorse the agreement, it continued to threaten sanctions, and it warned that Iran is still covertly pursuing a bomb.

The real show will begin when an agreed second phase of talks begins in mid-December. The critical negotiations will cover three sets of incentives for Iran: guaranteed provision of nuclear fuel from the West for power generation; economic incentives, including support for WTO accession; and security guarantees. Parallel negotiations will decide a final disposition of Iran's nuclear program, with Iran asserting its right to monitored enrichment activity and the EU (and the United States if it participates) insisting on a permanent freeze or even dismantlement of Iran's enrichment equipment. Iranian support for terrorist groups will also be on the table. Creative diplomacy will be at a premium.

Washington must step forward and lead multilateral Western pursuit of compromise. Its "bad cop" policy may have wrenched concessions from Iran, but as negotiations proceed, the United States must play a constructive role. Only Washington can offer security assurances that will assuage Tehran's fears of an Iraq-style "regime change," and US assent is necessary for Iranian WTO membership. The EU's access in Tehran has created an opportunity; the president must entice Tehran with a US-blessed deal.

Washington is correct that previous EU-Iran agreements have collapsed and that Iran has concealed its nuclear program for years. Washington is right that an indigenous Iranian nuclear fuel cycle in the post 9/11 era would be immensely destabilizing in the Persian Gulf and internationally.

The United States rightly insists that should the talks fail, Iran's case should be automatically referred to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions -- sticks cannot be dropped as carrots are introduced. Also, the United States should seek an even more intrusive inspection regime to guard against covert Iranian facilities.

But the president needs to recognize that US-led multilateral diplomacy is the last, best chance to reach an acceptable outcome. A surgical military strike against Iran, now much discussed in the United States and Israel, likely will only slow Tehran's nuclear program; we may not know the location of some Iranian equipment, and even if we do it is probably dispersed, protected, and relatively easy to rebuild. An Iraq-like ground war against Iran would not be politically sustainable in the United States, would unite Iranians behind the regime in Tehran, spawn Middle Eastern terrorism, and devastate trans-Atlantic relations.

Pitfalls face US efforts to impose sanctions on Iran. The Chinese may oppose the move, and the sanction with the most teeth -- a boycott of Iranian oil -- stands scant chance of approval given world oil prices and growing demand. The stark fact is that the alternatives to US-led multilateral diplomacy are poor and would do little to impede Iran's enrichment capability.

Finally, the United States is engaging in multilateral efforts with the only other remaining "axis of evil" country, North Korea. Reports indicate that Pyongyang, unlike Tehran, already has several bombs, and North Korea blatantly violated previous agreements. Yet the administration's approach there is correct. Why hasn't President Bush talked to Iran?

The Europeans have opened the door for multilateral diplomacy to achieve a vital US interest. Bush must seize the brass ring, engage Iran, and give negotiation a try.

Clifford Kupchan is the vice president of the Nixon Center, a think tank in Washington.