Who can lead the Democrats?

ANYONE BUT Hillary. The political year ends with Democratic Party leaders searching for a new moral compass -- and concluding, foolishly, that morality is only a focus group away. Blaming the November loss on issues like abortion, they want to be for and against it. With finesse and spin, Democrats long to believe red-state voters will return to them in 2008 -- even though it didn't work in 2004.

It definitely won't work if Hillary Clinton is leading the charge.

Democrats lost the values debate, first to Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky, before losing ground to abortion and gay marriage. It explains why George W. Bush was able to sidle into the White House in the first place. Hillary Clinton is part of the party's problem, not part of the solution. Whether you view her as Bill Clinton's victim or co-conspirator, she helped take the country down the path of half-truths and bold lies, from "I didn't inhale" to "I did not have sexual relations with that woman . . . "

The bumper stickers are correct. No one died when Clinton lied. But something was extinguished: respect for the office, the man, his wife, and the truth. It is difficult to imagine red state voters separating Hillary Clinton from the personal immorality of the Clinton presidency. Besides, how can she extricate herself from baby boomer feminists who will fight hard to keep the party's prochoice commitments, particularly as they apply to Supreme Court nominees?

For everyone who looks at Hillary Clinton and sees a fund-raising superstar, remember: Money was not the deciding factor in Bush's reelection. Terry McAuliffe, the outgoing party chairman, said recently that Democrats out-raised Republicans, $389 million to $385 million.

The $10 million in DNC coffers would be wasted on Hillary Clinton. A country as divided as it is along cultural and social issues is not going to elect such a polarizing woman. Someday in America, a woman will be elected president, but it will not happen when war and terrorism are policy priorities. Moreover, Hillary Clinton can't run for office without dragging the Hollywood excesses of the Clinton era back into the national consciousness. With Hillary as their candidate, the Democrats can't run away from Barbra Streisand, any more than they can escape Gloria Steinem.

She is the wrong messenger. So, who is the right one?

It can't be John Edwards, the vice presidential nominee, who could not win his home state of North Carolina and would now be running as a former one-term US senator.

The holiday buzz in Boston suggests that John Kerry is sending out signals that he will run again. At the moment, those signals are greeted with sad, even angry faces. The consultants, strategists, and organizers who bled for Kerry are tired, frustrated, and disinclined to give him or Massachusetts another shot.

But there is an argument to be made that for all the flaws he demonstrated as the Democratic presidential nominee, Senator Kerry is a stronger contender in 2008 than Senator Clinton -- if he applies the lessons he should have learned in this campaign to a second attempt.

One lesson: To voters, political equivocation is not a sign of moral strength. Kerry gained nothing from straddling any number of issues, from abortion and gay marriage to war and national security. Fearing to speak out against war in Iraq, he misused the moral authority he had as a veteran who returned home to speak out against another war. He squandered more of it the day he stood at the edge of the Grand Canyon and said that, knowing all he now knows, he would still vote to authorize the president to invade Iraq.

But the debate on Iraq and American foreign policy will look very different in the next election cycle. The consequences from the Iraq invasion will be much less hypothetical. The Democrat who runs in 2008 will not be running against Bush. The party must consider: Who will run strongest against Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee?

This year, the Democrats ran an anyone-but-Bush campaign. They should begin their 2008 quest thinking about a candidate other than Clinton.

Year-end note to readers: I would like to thank you for your interest in the just-completed presidential campaign season -- with special thanks to all who expressed their political passion with eloquence and civility. I look forward to the New Year.

Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com.