Nurturing extremism

REMEMBER THE war on terrorism? That was when Al Qaeda and transnational Islamic extremism were considered the major threats to the United States, before the Bush administration decided to invade Iraq, which had no connection to either before liberating nations began to trump the terrorist threat.

ADVERTISEMENT

Director of Central Intelligence Porter Goss and other senior security officers threw Congress into a very cold reality shower when they testified that despite the encouraging election news, Iraq has become a place in which Islamic extremists could exploit the insurrection to build a "potential pool of contacts" to widen the base of transnational terrorism.

Goss said that Iraq is a useful recruiting tool for extremists and that terrorists who survive the war will emerge with a high level of skill and experience to built up their operations in other countries in the region. The low Sunni turnout and the continuing insurrection continue to be a serious threat, he said.

As for homeland security, Goss told the Senate Intelligence committee that Al Qaeda is intent on using "chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons" and that it "may be only a matter of time" before they do.

President Bush is not wrong to say that a more democratic Arab world would help against the spread of Islamic extremism, but this is best done through persuasion as a long-term goal, not through counterproductive force.

In much of Iraq today, insurgents and terrorists can roam at will. You can blow them out of Fallujah, but they will reappear in Mosul. Thus we have a situation in Iraq not unlike Afghanistan under the Soviets, at least in the eyes of too many Muslims. A Muslim country is under attack and occupation by a foreign power, and once again Muslims are being oppressed. This has caused not only a nationalist uprising to drive the foreigners out but brings recruits from other lands willing to take up arms in the Islamic cause.

The great success of the Afghan resistance to the Soviets, and the eventual defeat and collapse of the Soviet Union, which Muslim extremists see as one following from the other, brought an inspiring message. Not only can a superpower be defeated, it can also be brought to its knees. Iraq, so the extremists say, provides another chance for another Muslim generation to humble the remaining superpower.

Much of Iraq today is like Afghanistan under the Taliban, a source of strength and a home for Islamic extremists everywhere.

I still believe that President Bush was right to forge ahead with an election, even though the Sunni center is still in the midst of a major insurgency. It was important to start letting Iraqis take responsibility for their national destiny even if the country wasn't 100 percent ready for it.

And the mixed results, with the main Shi'ite alliance taking only 48 percent of the vote, less than expected, means that compromises will have to be made and that Islam may not prove to be as potent a presence in the new constitution as it might have been.

But as terrorism expert Jessica Stern points out: "Democratization is not necessarily the best way to fight Islamic extremism. Most states that attempt to transition from autocracy to democracy get stuck in a kind of in-between state. And electoral democracy does not necessarily imply liberal democracy, especially in the Islamic world."

Democracy is about sharing power, and it is not yet clear that Iraqis are willing to do that. Iraq is divided along ethnic, religious, and tribal fault lines, and people vote accordingly. Many of these groups have their own heavily armed militias, which is very dangerous for democracy. A democratic state has to have a monopoly on coercion.

Thus the recent Iraqi election was a good and necessary step toward extracting the United States from the mess it has created. But the fact remains that so far Iraq has hurt us rather than helped in the main struggle this country and the West faces -- to prevail against the growing ranks of extremists. If Porter Goss succeeded in drawing the nation's attention back to what the real threats are, then he will have earned his salary.

H.D.S. Greenway's column appears regularly in the Globe.