A reality check for Kerry
THE GHOST of elections past is haunting Massachusetts.
His name is John Kerry.
The other day, Senator Edward M. Kennedy called Kerry an ''able, gifted, and talented political leader" and said that if Kerry runs again for president, ''I will support him."
Kerry should value that kind of public loyalty, because privately it is hard to find in Massachusetts. Some Bay State Democrats who were part of team Kerry are eager to forget about the 2004 campaign and openly wince when they hear his name. Hillary Clinton already has a hold on many hearts.
But like an old boyfriend who won't give up, Kerry isn't going gently into that political good night.
The media get urgent updates about Kerry press availabilities, and Kerry's 2004 supporters get urgent e-mail updates about the senator's latest political opinions on Hurricane Katrina relief or Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers. Kerry's past supporters are also approached regularly for political contributions and invited to dine with ''John and Teresa."
It's too early to write Kerry's political obituary, but it's not too early for a serious political reality check.
From a local and national perspective, it is now conventional wisdom: Democrats view Clinton as the frontrunner for the 2008 nomination.
But because presidential politics is first about money, a second, credible Kerry presidential campaign is not impossible: ''John Kerry represents the most likely person to be the credible alternative," says Steven Grossman, the past Democratic National Committe chairman and Howard Dean presidential campaign chairman. Grossman attributes Kerry's status to his fund-raising capability, coveted e-mail list of 3 million, and battle-tested experience.
At the same time, Grossman says a Kerry presidential re-run will be controversial, especially in Massachusetts, where so many supporters were heartily disappointed by the 2004 loss.
Ask Michael Dukakis. Massachusetts is tough on losers.
The movers and shakers who once saw Kerry as their ticket to a Cabinet position or a private White House soiree now see a failed presidential candidate. It is especially hard for Kerry to accept defeat and the loser label, because of one four letter word -- Ohio. Just 60,000 votes in Ohio separated him from George W. Bush and electoral college victory. And Bush's plummeting poll numbers must hurt, too.
But there's no crying in baseball or politics, just moving on.
On Oct. 28, philanthropist and Democratic activist Barbara Lee is sponsoring a rally and fund-raiser for four female US senators -- Clinton of New York, Dianne Feinstein of California, Maria Cantwell of Washington and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. Lee, a past Kerry presidential supporter, is also a huge advocate for female candidates, from the local to national level. As far as 2008, Lee said it is ''too early to talk about it, or think about it. "
But the reality is that in Boston, events like the Oct. 28 gala are rock star moments for Clinton; and the battle lines between two senators' presidential dreams are apparent.
In Boston fashion, however, everyone pretends they are not. Teresa Heinz Kerry is one of the event's honorary co-chairs, along with Kennedy's wife, Victoria Reggie Kennedy.
For Kerry, a lack of local enthusiasm for another run may be embarrassing and personally hurtful. But the reality is that it has little to do with his ultimate strength as a 2008 contender. Kerry does not need his Massachusetts team as much as he did in 2004. He now has a national base and if supporters nationally stick with him, he is as credible as any Democrat.
And if you apply Grossman's formula -- fund-raising capability, supporter network, and experience -- he is more credible. Grossman believes Kerry is the only potential candidate, right now, besides Clinton ''who can claim to have the ability to raise $40-$50 million, the minimum necessary to be a critical player" in 2008.
''History shows that it is hard for a candidate who comes close to get it out of his system. Only time will tell if voters think John Kerry is viable," says Michael Goldman, a longtime Massachusetts Democratic political consultant now working for Bloomberg Radio in New York City.
Kerry didn't slink off after defeat like Al Gore, and the Massachusetts political world is convinced he is running again. But people are braced for it, not joyously anticipating it.
That will change, of course, if those same people ever decide he has a ghost of a chance of winning.
Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com. 
