Watch out, Democrats

LOWELL

BE AFRAID, Democrats. Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey is not a great, natural politician, nor that inspiring a speaker. But she is good enough to become the next governor.

In 2006, Bay State Republicans are offering independent voters the same alluring message they first offered in 1990 -- fiscal restraint and a check against so-called tax-and-spend Democrats. And this time, the messenger fills a category of her own -- thin, blonde, rich, and very determined.

Healey accepted the GOP gubernatorial nomination with the now-familiar Republican pledge to hold the line against Democrats who already control the Legislature and now seek to win back the corner office. But the fledgling GOP nominee is also promising she is no Mitt Romney, in ways that stand to help her cause with moderate Democrats, especially women.

Healey is running far away from the conservative social views Governor Romney now embraces as a potential Republican presidential candidate.

To dramatize their differences, Healey planned to go from the convention to a ''Republicans for Choice" kick-off event. Manipulative it may be -- but that does not mean the obvious play to prochoice women won't work.

In a serviceable speech delivered with poise, if not passion, Healey made a strong case against two Democrats seeking their party's nomination. She lambasted Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly for what she labeled ''the flip-flopping of a political chameleon," singling out the AG's change of heart regarding the state income tax rollback; Reilly now supports it. She credited Deval Patrick with being ''up front about his big spending plans for this state and his intention to oppose tax cuts" -- and that is hardly a flattering characterization to lovers of fiscal restraint.

She made no mention of two other wealthy businessmen in the race -- Democrat Chris Gabrieli and Independent Christy Mihos.

Healey played up her relatively modest upbringing, framing herself as the daughter of a World War II veteran and a third-grade schoolteacher.

Her multimillionaire husband appeared briefly on the stage with their children after her speech. Democrats, especially Reilly, are trying to turn Sean Healey's wealth into a negative.

In the long run, however, it is hard to see it as anything but a plus. If Massachusetts voters were so turned off by personal wealth, Romney would not be governor and Edward M. Kennedy and John Kerry would not be the Bay State's longtime US senators.

Besides, with Sean Healey's backing, Kerry Healey has the resources to run a tough campaign; and yesterday, her speech signaled readiness for a tough fight.

Democrats should not underestimate Healey's potential appeal to women across the state. Expressing moderate social views and a commitment to early childhood education, she is aiming straight for the Commonwealth's suburban moms.

Add to that the element of fear of Democratic control of all branches of government, and there is reason to believe Healey can win. As Healey reminded delegates: ''The Democrats hold four of the six constitutional offices in this state. And they've got 87 percent of seats in the Legislature. Who can argue -- with a straight face -- that they do not have enough power as it is? . . . we have held the corner office as a last line of defense against their worst instincts."

If Massachusetts voters accept that premise, the formula that worked for Bill Weld, Paul Cellucci, and Romney can work again for Healey. Of course, the Democrats will argue that Republican governors have looked past the voters who elected them, to pursue ambitions beyond the Bay State. And in Romney's case, it now looks like he deliberately misled voters about his stand on issues like abortion.

That is where Healey has some explaining to do in the weeks ahead. Did Romney mislead her, too, as well as the rest of the voters? Or was Healey part of the great Romney deception? If she disagreed with Romney on core issues, why did she wait until now to tell the public?

That looks as disingenuous as her charges regarding Reilly and the state income tax rollback. But, it may not matter to voters as much as fiscal matters and moderate policies she now enthusiastically embraces.

Just like Weld in 1990, Healey is going for independent voters and for the women's vote. To beat her, Democrats must deny her one of those constituencies. It may not be as easy as they want to believe.

Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com.