boston.com News your connection to The Boston Globe
DAN PAYNE

A quick review for voters

LET'S RECAP. Bill Weld is out. Chris Gabrieli is in. Al-Zarqawi is definitely out. Karl Rove slipped the noose.

New York Republicans send dead fish (mackerel) to Weld. Message: Get out. Weld thinks it over for two minutes and abandons hapless run for governor.

Massachusetts Democrats let Gabrieli get on ballot, thanks to 17 delegates who later checked into UMass Medical Center with dislocated elbows.

Unconventional wisdom. Democratic leaders should now take a long, hard look at convention, a wasteful diversion of time and money. Gabby wasn't even a delegate. Convention puts him on equal Democratic footing with Deval Patrick and Tom Reilly.

No limit. Gabrieli set his spending ``limit" at $15.36 million. Leaves Mitt Romney's $9 million campaign for governor in dust. Gabby offers goofy explanation -- he got 15.36 percent of convention delegates. What if he had gotten 30 percent? Should've said Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey predicted she'd spend $15 million.

Listen up. This will be on final exam. Voters do not -- I repeat -- do not care how much candidate spends. Especially if it's his or her own money. Again, how much do voters care? If you said, nada, squadouche, zilch, or bupkis, give yourself extra 10 points.

Unless Patrick dips deeply into personal coffers, Gabby could crush him 7 to 1 on TV spending. And Reilly 4 to 1.

Patrick hope. Whatever they're smoking in Patrick's campaign, please send me some. Patrick's manager says they win by getting 12,000 volunteers to drag 35 voters each to primary. That's 420,000 votes. Total of what Shannon O'Brien and Bob Reich got combined in 2002 primary.

Better hope. Patrick should hope Reilly attacks Gabby. Gabby fires back. And back and forth it goes. Caught in crossfire, disgusted voters turn to Patrick. This is how Carol Moseley-Braun won seat in US Senate from Illinois. Of course, only works if you're not attacked. On, say, Ameriquest.

Lessons from California. What happens in California doesn't stay there. State Treasurer Phil Angelides just won Democratic primary for governor in California. Beat John Westly, early eBay executive, who must've thought campaign went to highest bidder. Threw $37 million of his own money into campaign. Some of it went for TV attacks on developer Angelides. No pauper, Angelides put more than $25 million in personal dollars into campaign. Angelides attacked Westly as clone of Governor Ahnold Schwarzenegger. Three days after primary, Ahnold attacked Angelides for calling for $10 billion tax hike on rich to pay for public schools. Healey could launch day-after-primary TV attack here.

Difference in California primary may have been $9 million pro-Angelides independent expenditure led by former Angelides business partner. What's to stop third-party spending avalanches from happening here? Nothing.

California turnout only 28 percent, lowest in 86 years. Exit polling showed one-third of votersmade up their minds in final three days. Lesson: All-out attacks on TV depress turnout (and me) and sow confusion. Could happen here come September.

Is Healey a clone? Newly fabricated Kerry Healey cheered Harvard University for moving toward cloning embryonic stem cells for medical research. Original Healey didn't say boo when her governor and president opposed stem-cell research.

Summer jobs. Reilly has to quit describing his message as ``appealing to independent-minded voters." This is message? Message to AG: You're only one in race who lives like ordinary person. Talk about how you bought house, put kids through college, paid bills. Forget tactical positioning. But while we're on subject, now that convention of liberals is over, are you going to move right?

Patrick has to stop talking about his campaign and start talking about average voters. And that answer on taxes? First you say you're not for raising taxes. Then you tick off programs you favor that will require higher taxes.

Gabby has to realize not all of us went to Harvard or MIT. Stem-cell research lab on every corner sounds good. But how's that help high school graduate from Mattapan or Springfield? Empathy, please.

If they were the Sox. Patrick is fun to watch, unproven, has decent power from left side. If he played for Red Sox, he'd be Coco Crisp. Reilly is workmanlike, unflashy, switch-hitter -- Jason Varitek. Gabby has made tons of money, tells you more than you want to know. Who else? Curt Schilling.

Dan Payne is a Boston-based media consultant who has worked for former governors Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts and Angus King of Maine, as well as Deval Patrick until November 2005.

SEARCH THE ARCHIVES
 
Today (free)
Yesterday (free)
Past 30 days
Last 12 months
 Advanced search / Historic Archives